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12/29/2017 10:49 am  #1


Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

4:00pm EST tip on Saturday 12/30/2017 at A.J. Palumbo Center
Per KenPom:
Dukes #206 (9-4) vs Dayton #133 (6-6)
Dayton projected to finish 6th of 14 teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 1, 67-66 - Dukes with 45% probability of a win.
Betting line: The Dukes are 3½ point underdogs; 136 for the over/under. (Dayton 5-7 Against the Spread; Dukes 2-3 ATS)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate
Top 100 ranking noted as a strength; Bottom 100 ranking as a weakness
Here's a look at Dayton:
Offensive Strength:  Effective FG%
Offensive Weakness:  Turnovers, Offensive Rebounds
Defensive Strength:  Limits Offensive Rebounds
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG%

Here's a look at the Dukes (national ranking out of 351 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Getting to the FT Line (40); Limit Turnovers (43): Offensive Rebounds (17)
Offensive Weakness:  None
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG% (74)
Defensive Weakness:  None

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (12/30/2017 10:24 am)

 

12/29/2017 12:16 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Dukes will pull out a close one! Will be there with several friends. Hope we will outnumber the Dayton contingent.

 

12/29/2017 5:54 pm  #3


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Betting line is Dayton giving 3½ points; haven't seen the over/under yet.

9:20pm
Line is down to 2½ points; 136 for the over/under.

10:25am. Line back up to 3½

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (12/30/2017 10:25 am)

     Thread Starter
 

12/30/2017 9:35 am  #4


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

From the game thread on the Dayton site, it looks like 25% of their fans are predicting a Duquesne win.  Other posts seem to point to a weakness with their point guard play.

 

12/30/2017 10:26 am  #5


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Duquesne could easily start the A-10 season 3-0 and sadly, I think that has a lot more to do with the decline of the A-10 over the last two seasons rather than the improvements under Dambrot. Dayton's probably not as bad off as some of their fans think but I do think they approach their team with a false dichotomy ala Pitt fans. They're either good or terrible or more precisely, they're either NCAA caliber or they're terrible. I have no question that the Flyers are better than the Dukes, but they're not an NCAA team. This game or anything on the road shouldn't be viewed as an automatic anything for Dayton. Of course, they're not even going to finish bottom half of the league, but their fans aren't used to them being in the middle anymore.

 

12/30/2017 10:53 am  #6


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

steve19981 wrote:

Duquesne could easily start the A-10 season 3-0 and sadly, I think that has a lot more to do with the decline of the A-10 over the last two seasons rather than the improvements under Dambrot. Dayton's probably not as bad off as some of their fans think but I do think they approach their team with a false dichotomy ala Pitt fans. They're either good or terrible or more precisely, they're either NCAA caliber or they're terrible. I have no question that the Flyers are better than the Dukes, but they're not an NCAA team. This game or anything on the road shouldn't be viewed as an automatic anything for Dayton. Of course, they're not even going to finish bottom half of the league, but their fans aren't used to them being in the middle anymore.

​I can't wait for the day we can be like that  "Ah this sucks we're only going to win 17 games this year!"  "Man, the NIT again?"  
 


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

12/30/2017 10:56 am  #7


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

indygjm wrote:

From the game thread on the Dayton site, it looks like 25% of their fans are predicting a Duquesne win.  Other posts seem to point to a weakness with their point guard play.

​Which forum? the only Dayton forum I see is one where you have to pay to see it.


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

12/30/2017 11:35 am  #8


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Tejas_Duke wrote:

steve19981 wrote:

Duquesne could easily start the A-10 season 3-0 and sadly, I think that has a lot more to do with the decline of the A-10 over the last two seasons rather than the improvements under Dambrot. Dayton's probably not as bad off as some of their fans think but I do think they approach their team with a false dichotomy ala Pitt fans. They're either good or terrible or more precisely, they're either NCAA caliber or they're terrible. I have no question that the Flyers are better than the Dukes, but they're not an NCAA team. This game or anything on the road shouldn't be viewed as an automatic anything for Dayton. Of course, they're not even going to finish bottom half of the league, but their fans aren't used to them being in the middle anymore.

​I can't wait for the day we can be like that  "Ah this sucks we're only going to win 17 games this year!"  "Man, the NIT again?"  
 

I don't think Dayton is an NIT team this year either. A10 will probably have someone find a resume to get a third team into the postseason this year, but it could be just URI and bona in the NCAA or the NIT.

 

12/30/2017 12:56 pm  #9


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Tejas_Duke wrote:

indygjm wrote:

From the game thread on the Dayton site, it looks like 25% of their fans are predicting a Duquesne win.  Other posts seem to point to a weakness with their point guard play.

​Which forum? the only Dayton forum I see is one where you have to pay to see it.

UDPride.com, the thread is about predicting the score of the Duquesne game.
 

 

12/30/2017 1:31 pm  #10


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Espn's match up predictor has Duquesne winning 60% of the time, based on their internal index. I'm not sure how they determine that, but so far this season it has been reasonably accurate.

Despite being 6-6, Dayton doesn't seem to have any bad loses beyond a neutral site loss to Hofstra (KP153), who isn't terrible by any means, just a team you'd expect Dayton to beat, and maybe Princeton (kp114) at home? They lost to ODU as well, but Kenpom has them at 67. Dayton has played a pretty good schedule, and had they done better, they'd be in the mix for an at large I suspect. 

I think it will come down to how well Duquesne can defend against Cunningham.He isn't the only player they have that can score, but I think Duquesne's perimeter defense is pretty stout. They'll need Tydus, Chas and JRob to contain him to win. Getting him in foul trouble would be good too. 

 

12/30/2017 1:55 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Can't wait to see how we stack up. Got about 3-5 inches in the city alone so I don't know what attendance will be like but hopefully we outnumber them. Coming with two others

Last edited by Duques102 (12/30/2017 1:57 pm)

 

12/30/2017 4:06 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Daytons pointguard out and they are starting a freshman at the point. Let's get off to a good start.

 

12/30/2017 4:15 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Not exactly the good start I was hoping for. D needs to pick up, Dayton scoring too easily.

 

12/30/2017 4:49 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Hey now. Things are heating up.

 

12/30/2017 4:59 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Nice way to finish the half. Great to see the bench fired up at the end as the defense made them turn it over and not get a last shot


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

12/30/2017 5:00 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Dukes 38-34 at half with a13-2 run, Rene with 16 to lead way

Last edited by Phildog (12/30/2017 5:00 pm)


A diehard fan since 1961
 

12/30/2017 5:00 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

If they keep that fight, fire and hunger for 20 more minutes, Dukes will win.  Just sure up Defense on their one shooter and cunningham will be back in for them.

 

12/30/2017 5:09 pm  #18


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

What a run down the stretch. Gained confidence in offense and made shots, and played great d down the stretch, the future is now???

Gotta finish.

 

12/30/2017 5:25 pm  #19


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Like the way Taylor can take the ball downcourt himself after getting a rebound.

 

12/30/2017 5:41 pm  #20


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Finally Brown.

 

12/30/2017 5:45 pm  #21


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

too many missded defensive rebounds, can't keep giving Dayton second third and fourth chances


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

12/30/2017 5:53 pm  #22


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Lewis has got to learn to give it up when his shots aren't falling. 2-10 from the field all from three while the rest of the team is 20-37. This game should not be in question right now.

 

12/30/2017 6:04 pm  #23


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Great pass by Williams to Brown at about 4:00, followed by block by Brown, an amazing save by Smith and bucket by Williams.  That was the game.  Nice win!

 

12/30/2017 6:05 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Nice win for the Dukes. Brown and Williams came up big in final minutes.

Last edited by Rayrich (12/30/2017 6:05 pm)

 

12/30/2017 6:05 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers

Big win!! Great effort on defense.

 

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