SLU is a tough team to figure out. They are among the biggest underachievers in the A10 this year (along with Richmond), but they have some good nonconference wins. Any road win in the A10 is a good win, IMO. Won't be easy.

Last edited by Dukes2012 (1/16/2018 9:51 pm)

duq81 wrote:

Dukes2012 wrote:

SLU is a tough team to figure out. They are among the biggest underachievers in the A10 this year (along with Richmond), but they have some good nonconference wins. Any road win in the A10 is a good win, IMO. Won't be easy.

I believe there was some incident on campus that has resulted in 3 of their best players being suspended all year.
 

That's correct. It's a title IX investigation for sexual assault. I don't believe they have released the results of the investigation yet.

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

8:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/17/2017 at the Chaifetz Arena, Saint Louis, MO
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 2, 63-61 - Dukes with 41% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 4½ point underdogs; Over/Under 128
Duquesne 6-4 Against the Spread: Saint Louis 8-7 ATS

I get a kick out of how the spread for seemingly every game is always two to three points more in favor of our opponent than the KenPom predicted spread when a large number of spreads seem to closely mirror KenPom. Vegas must have a Duquesne factor

Three of the four accused have not played a minute so if they are not suspended any more, we will be their first game.  The fourth player has played all season.  The Billikens have only used 9 players all year.  Suspensions certainly appear ongoing

Brian wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

8:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/17/2017 at the Chaifetz Arena, Saint Louis, MO
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 2, 63-61 - Dukes with 41% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 4½ point underdogs; Over/Under 128
Duquesne 6-4 Against the Spread: Saint Louis 8-7 ATS

I get a kick out of how the spread for seemingly every game is always two to three points more in favor of our opponent than the KenPom predicted spread when a large number of spreads seem to closely mirror KenPom. Vegas must have a Duquesne factor

I think they do, Brian. The casual bettor, or team fan, probably sees the their team is only favored by 2 over crappy Duquesne and they lay their money down on their team. If the line is 5, they may think twice about the bet or bet less money - helping out the books to balance the bet.

If the Dukes cover tonight and go 7-4 ATS, I think the betting lines become more in tune with KenPom to prevent the smart, pro bettors from taking advantage of the Dukes be undervalued.

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Brian wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

8:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/17/2017 at the Chaifetz Arena, Saint Louis, MO
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 2, 63-61 - Dukes with 41% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 4½ point underdogs; Over/Under 128
Duquesne 6-4 Against the Spread: Saint Louis 8-7 ATS

I get a kick out of how the spread for seemingly every game is always two to three points more in favor of our opponent than the KenPom predicted spread when a large number of spreads seem to closely mirror KenPom. Vegas must have a Duquesne factor

I think they do, Brian. The casual bettor, or team fan, probably sees the their team is only favored by 2 over crappy Duquesne and they lay their money down on their team. If the line is 5, they may think twice about the bet or bet less money - helping out the books to balance the bet.

If the Dukes cover tonight and go 7-4 ATS, I think the betting lines become more in tune with KenPom to prevent the smart, pro bettors from taking advantage of the Dukes be undervalued.

I also think the opposing fans and bettors don't know what to make of the Dukes since the lines are influenced by the AdjO and D  which are still low compared to actual output thanks to the poorly rated schedule. 

Hope the Dukes can keep SLU off the offensive glass as they're the best in the league by % thus far in league games but lousy shooting the ball.  Hoping for our Centers to build on their offensive games from Saturday and it opens up play for our guards to do their thing. Should be another low possession game and will likely come down to wire. 

This a streaming free game on the SLU A-10 site, for those who wish to stream to big screen tv tonite.

Brian wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

8:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/17/2017 at the Chaifetz Arena, Saint Louis, MO
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 2, 63-61 - Dukes with 41% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 4½ point underdogs; Over/Under 128
Duquesne 6-4 Against the Spread: Saint Louis 8-7 ATS

I get a kick out of how the spread for seemingly every game is always two to three points more in favor of our opponent than the KenPom predicted spread when a large number of spreads seem to closely mirror KenPom. Vegas must have a Duquesne factor

Yeah, I thought that too. The VCU game ended up as a push for the Ken Pom prediction  (VCU - 11) IIRC
 

Last edited by Tejas_Duke (1/17/2018 11:10 am)

The Money Line on this game looks awfully tempting. Bet $100 on the Dukes to win and get back $275 (net win of $175).

I expect the Dukes to win.SLU has 8 scholarship players, Dukes playing with confidence.Play good defense,
limit SLU to one shot and control the pace of the game.  The X factor is the referees. Only way Dukes lose
is  if we  dont get a fair shake with the refs.
 

I usually check out the St. Louis gamethread at halftime and after the game. They have some pretty funny posters over there especially if they are behind in the game.

This play by play guy is so ridiculously biased, horrible to listen to.

This team is athletic. We look intimidated by that high pressure they play at the top of the key. Gotta start attacking the hoop and wear them down and draw fouls. They aren't a great shooting team.