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2/12/2018 4:26 pm  #1


5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

The Dukes have 5 games left . The 3 away games are at St. Josephs, St. Bonaventure, and Massachusetts all difficult places to play.  The Bonnies beat us here and it will be the first time playing the other two.  Our Home games (2) are Davidson (only meeting) and against St. Louis (who smacked us).  Realistically, what do you think is the best case scenario for these next five?  Yes, we all want 5-0 but this is going to be a difficult stretch to end the regular season.  Go Dukes!
@ St. Joseph   (2/17)
@ Bonnies       (2/21)
Home Davidson  (2/24)
Home Saint Louis (2/28)
@ Mass.  (3/3)

 

2/12/2018 4:45 pm  #2


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

At least six (A10T). Maybe seven.

 

2/12/2018 5:02 pm  #3


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Was talking only about the regular season.

     Thread Starter
 

2/12/2018 5:51 pm  #4


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Here is what KenPom is predicting today:
Sat Feb 17  156    Saint Joseph's  L,75-68 68 28% Away
Wed Feb 21   68    St. Bonaventure L,79-66 67 12% Away
Sat Feb 24   58    Davidson        L,73-66 62 29% Home
Wed Feb 28  135    Saint Louis     L,65-64 62 50% Home
Sat Mar 03  196    Massachusetts   L,71-67 63 38% Away
 

 

2/12/2018 6:09 pm  #5


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Am hoping two at home and Umas on road.


Need a bounce back and play to basics, a little more out of Brown and Williams and Lewis back to scoring.

And finally more passing and less ball hogging from the point.


A diehard fan since 1961
 

2/12/2018 6:48 pm  #6


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

After watching the last game i see 5 losses by double digits. If we win a couple of these I will be impressed with the way coach got the team back up after thr Fordham beat down.

 

2/12/2018 7:19 pm  #7


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

The best case scenario is 5-0, if the Dukes can get back to their high level of play that they showed during the first 3 games of the A-10 conference and in a couple of other games (Rhode Island in particular). They showed that they could win at home and on the road; and they were able to control games defensively. They could beat anyone in conference.  I just don't know what we are going to see out of this break.

Realistically, best case is that I can see them winning 2 or 3 games out of the 5.  I can't see them beating St. Bonaventure in Olean; and I don't like the matchup with Davidson at all - we are struggling against teams that have great ball movement and can shoot the 3 (49.3% of Davidson's shots come from the 3 accounting for 43.6% of their points - plus they get assists on 62.4% of their FG's - all three of these metrics rank Top 15 in the country). This one could hurt.

I like the Dukes against Saint Joseph's, even on the road; the Hawks struggle on offense and if the Dukes can come back fresh from this week and play some defense once again, the Dukes can win an ugly one here.  I also like the Dukes on the road again at UMass. The Dukes should be able to put up some points here, and they need to limit Pipkins. UMass is using a 6 man rotation, so if the Dukes are back to playing tough defense, we should be able to wear them down a bit and win another ugly one on the road.

The swing game to me is Saint Louis. The Dukes were pretty much dominated by the Billikens on the road. Now that the Dukes have seen the style of play and the coaches make adjustments, is that going to be enough to swing this game in the Dukes favor? The Dukes are going to have to defend a hell of a lot better in this one too if they are going to win; and they can't shoot 33% from the field like they did in Saint Louis. To me, this game is squarely a toss up and I just can't make a call.

At this point of the season, I would take 2 wins - finishing the regular season at 17-14; 8-10 in the conference which would ensure them of a 10th place or higher finish (and a Day 1 bye). I also believe that this record would be good enough for them to get a CBI bid and perhaps buy a home game, regardless of the A-10 tourney results.
 

 

2/12/2018 8:12 pm  #8


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Good post Phoenix.  It is amazing how the mood and thinking changes on this Board.  Two weeks ago when we took URI and then the Bonnies to the wire the consensus was this team is capable of beating any team in this League.  Now I sense the old DU doom setting in.  It pisses me off when I see little twerps from teams like George Mason calling this team garbage on twitter.  That alone should motivate guys like Lewis, Williams and Smith to get back on track.   If KD can get this team back to the way they played for most of the season I believe we can will all 5.  But let's take it one game at a time.  I also believe we will win at St. Joe.  

Last edited by CLK (2/12/2018 8:13 pm)

 

2/12/2018 9:23 pm  #9


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

CLK wrote:

Good post Phoenix.  It is amazing how the mood and thinking changes on this Board.  Two weeks ago when we took URI and then the Bonnies to the wire the consensus was this team is capable of beating any team in this League.  Now I sense the old DU doom setting in.  It pisses me off when I see little twerps from teams like George Mason calling this team garbage on twitter.  That alone should motivate guys like Lewis, Williams and Smith to get back on track.   If KD can get this team back to the way they played for most of the season I believe we can will all 5.  But let's take it one game at a time.  I also believe we will win at St. Joe.  

This team certainly isn’t garbage and we fans are no longer following the old way of Ferry and the old AD. This fan ( me )needs to remember we have KD and an AD that has decided to build a program, I just got used to losing at this time of year and set backs made me over react. Time to be a supporter but with a little more blind faith, these coaches know more than I ever will about basketball, I am going to watch and enjoy.


A diehard fan since 1961
 

2/12/2018 9:26 pm  #10


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Can't say it any better Phoenix and defense to me is the key along with more deliberate tempo... passing on offense. I thought Rhode Island away was one of the best games this team has played and is how they should try to play. Of course they need guards to shoot better than last few games  for that to work too.

 

2/13/2018 5:45 am  #11


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

"T.J. McConnell first in 76ers history with triple-double off bench."
I did not want to give this a separate thread but since he did play for the Dukes for two years and is a local kid, I thought I'd repost the Philly/ESPN headlines.  

As far as the Dukes, I too would accept 2 wins, knowing where we were at the beginning of the year and what the outlook was.  I will be extremely upset if we go 0-5 because that will remind me of the last 5 years when those were the expectations and some of us went into games Not expecting to win because of the coach.  There is no doubt this coach is sooo much better, but now he and the kids have to produce in what I believe is the toughest stretch since it is against 5 good teams and more importantly, is at the end of the regular season when non-veteran teams get extremely tired.

Last edited by FAM (2/13/2018 5:46 am)

     Thread Starter
 

2/13/2018 6:59 am  #12


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

FAM wrote:

"T.J. McConnell first in 76ers history with triple-double off bench."
I did not want to give this a separate thread but since he did play for the Dukes for two years and is a local kid, I thought I'd repost the Philly/ESPN headlines.  

As far as the Dukes, I too would accept 2 wins, knowing where we were at the beginning of the year and what the outlook was.  I will be extremely upset if we go 0-5 because that will remind me of the last 5 years when those were the expectations and some of us went into games Not expecting to win because of the coach.  There is no doubt this coach is sooo much better, but now he and the kids have to produce in what I believe is the toughest stretch since it is against 5 good teams and more importantly, is at the end of the regular season when non-veteran teams get extremely tired.

St. Joe's, and UMass aren't good teams, but they are road games, so they will be tough to win. 2 wins will also be enough to satisfy me.

 

2/13/2018 7:35 am  #13


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

would think ceiling is 3 wins, floor is 2.
would love to pick up a win in a10 tourney and a win in cbi
18-19 wins in season 1 would be huge.
i probably let my expectations get the best of me this year too. but its been a hell of a ride.

i think its sometimes easy to forget what the staff inherited and how far they came in one season.
I don't think we will get a real idea of his x's and o's, strategy, etc until next year when he has a full compliment of "his" players.
that is not to knock the ferry holdovers. Jrob and Tarin have shown so much improvement in one year under KD and staff. Credit to RCC and EJ for sticking it out and representing DUQ thru the tough times.
Credit to KD and staff for not giving up on these kids, not throwing them or previous staff under the bus, but for also really helping them improve their games.
Will be interested to see how it turns out next year with true PG. I love watching TDM in pre game. kid is lightning quick and can stroke it.

but for now, lets hope they can pull out a few wins here down the stretch, maybe get KD to another 20win season
 

 

2/13/2018 9:55 am  #14


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

I'll take two wins and run like hell.


"Facts are stubborn things."
                                 John Adams
 

2/13/2018 11:02 am  #15


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

All the rest will be tough games. Understatement I know. No predictions but hoping for at least 2 wins somewhere, somehow. Most likely might be St. Louis rematch and either UMass or St. Joes on the road. I too am hoping for a win in the A-10 tourney and a win or 2 in the CBI. Still a possibility for 19 or 20 wins. At any rate, the ground work has been laid for future success. GO DUKES!!

 

2/13/2018 11:09 am  #16


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Collection of thoughts going through this thread:

1. I think the floor is one win and the Dukes could win three if things go right.

2. Where Mason fans get off talking trash is beyond me. This is their fifth year in the league, three of the four have ended in losses in the PIG round and they own losses this year to said "crappy" team Duquesne, as well as Fordham and GW. The Green Machine rocks, though

3. St Joe's has been a tough out on Hawk Hill. Completely different team away from Hagan. Hopefully the week to prep and get right helps a lot but it will be a tough go of it there, I think.

4. I'm not calling for a win and there's no real analysis in this, but in four of the five years under Ferry, Duquesne played Bona close in Olean. Of course they never won, but I think it will at least be a competitive game. Theme of the league has been every one, URI the exception, has had one head scratching loss. Bona hasn't really had one so maybe, just maybe we get the payback on Bona. We can only hope.

5.  I concur with Phoenix: Davidson is a tough matchup for us. When not playing the Dukes, I love watching them when their offense clicks but it isn't so fun when their motion offense carves your team up and it is wide open three after wide open three.

6. Possible game changer for the SLU game: Goodwin had been rumored to be the fourth player in the ongoing Title IX issue and it was just reported he will begin a two month suspension effective immediately. I'm expecting a rough and tumble game for our regular season finale at Palumbo and this is our best chance statistically for a win. Game is seen as a toss up on season results that don't factor in SLU playing w/o Goodwin the rest of the season.

7. Dukes have been getting beat from three at a clip we were accustomed to seeing under Ferry. UMass is the third best in the league at shooting from three. Pipkins and Carl Pierre can really shoot it from deep, otherwise, they aren't excelling in any other category on offense and they are currently the worst team in the league defensively. This game could be had with a good defensive showing and being efficient on offense.

Really hoping to avoid the PIG round. Despite the lside, the Dukes are still ni seventh, but the bottom of the league has risen a bit and it is a jumbled mess in the middle.

 

2/13/2018 4:19 pm  #17


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Good points, Brian. Thanks.

Here’s an article on Goodwin’s suspension at SLU:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-jordan-goodwin-saint-louis-suspended-20180213-story.html

 

2/14/2018 9:21 pm  #18


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

The next game is super critical for one reason. We were blown out at home by a team we were favored to beat. Another blow out loss and we could hit the slippery slope pointed down hill. I say two wins max, fingers crossed and some Our Fathers and Hail Marys thrown in.


WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
 

2/15/2018 8:08 am  #19


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

The last time I dedicated a Novena to DU Hoops, Ferry's contract was bought out.
​The St. Jude Novena - patron saint of lost causes.
​Opted for the heavy artillery.

​In the spirit of Lent, a few suggestions for anyone interested:
​- St. Anthony Novena.  Well known for helping people find lost things.  Intention - MLII finds open looks & his shot
- St. Dymphna Novena.  Patroness of Depression and Anxiety, she is helpful to many who suffer.  Intention - for 85% of this board.
- St. Sebastian Novena.  Patron Saint of Athletes.  Intention - cover the whole roster. 

* Caveat - for those who slept through Catechism, 9 days to complete a Novena. 

 

2/15/2018 8:51 am  #20


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

I read some who think KD should back off a bit because the players are tired....hence the drop off in effort and results.  Shooters need their legs for sure and it probably is a valid complaint when you see shooters struggle.  I just don't agree.  I suggest that they push harder...pedal to the metal. The reason is this...  you want the players to know what is expected and how they will play.  If they pull back now the players will not realize that they need to get in far better shape in the off season.  They may struggle now but it will benefit them in the long run. A good off season for most of these kids will push DU and themselves to new levels.  My expectation, and hope, is that they play hard and compete the last 5 games.  Play hard with passion.  Winning 2-3 more games would be awesome but forgotten 5 years from now.  If Lewis or others quit it is better to find out now so you can help them find a good fit when they transfer. Often kids transfer after the first year of a new demanding coach.  No shame in that...wish them well and move on.  If we are discussing this the same time next year...then there is a problem and the rebuild is off schedule.

Go Dukes!!!  (ps....I will still follow DU if and when KD leaves. I have grown fond of the school and fans)

Last edited by Dsnyder15 (2/15/2018 10:14 am)

 

2/15/2018 9:31 am  #21


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

The St. Joes game is important due to the total disintegration of the team in the Fordham game. This game should tell us a lot about the coaching staff and the players. Will the Fordham loss carry over to the final 5 games or will the coaches be able to work on the psyches of the players, if needed, to get them past that game and get their heads into the next game. Most interested to see how this team comes out of the chute on Saturday!  

 

2/15/2018 9:47 am  #22


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

Dsnyder15 wrote:

I read some who think KD should back off a bit because the players are tired....hence the drop off in effort and results.  Shooters need their legs for sure and it probably is a valid complaint when you see shooters struggle.  I just don't agree.  I suggest that they push harder...pedal to the metal. The reason is this...  you want the players to know what is expected and how they will play.  If they pull back now the players will not realize that they need to get in far better shape in the off season.  They may struggle now but it will benefit them in the long run. A good off season for most of these kids will push DU and themselves to new levels.  My expectation, and hope, is that they play hard and compete the last 5 games.  Play hard with passion.  Winning 2-3 more games would be awesome but forgotten 5 years from now.  If Lewis or others quit it is better to find out now so you can help them find a good fit when they transfer. Often kids transfer after the first year of a new demanding coach.  No shame in that...wish them well and move on.  If we are discussing this the same time next year...then there is a problem and the rebuild is off schedule.

Go Dukes!!!  (ps....I will still follow DU if and when KD leaves.  I have grown fond of the school and fans)

Great post.  I agree 100%.  It really bugs me when I hear excuses or explanations that our guys are tired from a long season.  The last I checked the other teams play the same number of League.  When we get out hustled by teams without their best player and shorter bench it is time for a reality gut check.  Time for our guys to suck it up and finish strong if they want to secure their minutes for next year.  
 

 

2/15/2018 9:51 am  #23


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

I dont know many people that would agree with the pedal to the metal theory.  You cant play hard if you're exhausted, no legs, sore.  They can take a couple days off, step back, relax, study, sleep.  
I dont think anyone quit.  I just think the warts on the team have been exposed over the season.  They arent running a Phil Jackson-like triangle offense, its pretty easy to slow down 2 guys.  This isnt exactly a loaded roster either.  
I hope they bounce back.  I cant imagine a 18-22 y/o not being able to bounce back.

 

2/15/2018 2:51 pm  #24


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

We do have 2 Freshmen  starting for the Dukes. It is more of a grind for those kids than for  seniors in general I would  believe. Even our upper classmen have not played a full season like this one before for the most part. Who, outside of Mike Lewis, has really played this many minutes before? Anyone? Maybe there is something to the running out of gas theory. Anyway...Go Dukes!

 

2/15/2018 5:36 pm  #25


Re: 5 GAMES LEFT!!!!

I think it might be more mental fatigue than physical.  I don't think that any one of these players, perhaps excepting Tarin Smith with Bob Hurley, ever had a coach as intense as KD is 100% of the time on the basketball court.  The grind of learning new everything with an extremely high standard can wear and burn out the team quite a bit.  The last time that the Dukes had 7 days off, after the Southern Illinois game, resulted in the Dukes playing their best basketball all year (wins over Dayton, GW and Fordham).  I have a good feeling and I'm hopeful that the current break will be as good for the Dukes.

 

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