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2/10/2019 1:33 pm  #1


Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

7 and 4 in the League with 7 to play.

0 Wins:  1%  100-1:  A total collapse by a gassed team could happen, but I find this very, very unlikely.

1 Wins:  4%    25 -1:  Take one from LaSalle, GW or  U-Mass

2 Wins:  15%  7-1:  Two of the above

3 Wins: 40%  2.5 to 1:  This is my gut hunch.  With all tough road games and Dayton at home.  This is what I see

4 Wins:  25%  4-1:  LaSalle, GW, U Mass and I have them getting revenge on Dayton at home.

5 Wins:  10%  10-1:  Gotta win a tough road game. At the start of the season I penciled in Mason.

6 Wins:  4%  25 - 1:  Wow just wow.

7 Wins:  1%  100-1:  In reality I think this is more like 250 -1 but just to keep my percentages straight.
 

Last edited by Tejas_Duke (2/12/2019 6:55 am)


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2/10/2019 1:45 pm  #2


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

Beat Bona!!!!

 

2/10/2019 2:03 pm  #3


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

duq81 wrote:

Beat Bona!!!!

We never win there, not as bad as Richmond but still.  Even in my best case scenario 13-5, I had them losing this one.
 


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2/10/2019 5:28 pm  #4


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

At this point we're playing for a double bye. We have no chance at an at-large bid, so 1 or 4 really doesn't make a difference. The only way to guarantee the double bye is winning them all, but 6 will almost certainly get it done, 5 probably will, and even 4 might. Any less than that we really have no chance and don't deserve it. It's a tough road, but this team seems to love to be challenged.

 

2/10/2019 6:54 pm  #5


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

I believe I had an 18 win season forecast. I’m going with 3 wins in the last 7. As I stated before I think both MH and SC are playing in pain and gutting it out. Much appreciation to those two, true warriors. My nagging concern is the decline of the A10. I hope that it’s only a one year dip. I look enviously at the Big East. ‘Nova a slight down year and up pops Marquette. Now let’s rock.


WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
 

2/10/2019 7:16 pm  #6


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

KenOTR73 wrote:

I believe I had an 18 win season forecast. I’m going with 3 wins in the last 7. As I stated before I think both MH and SC are playing in pain and gutting it out. Much appreciation to those two, true warriors. My nagging concern is the decline of the A10. I hope that it’s only a one year dip. I look enviously at the Big East. ‘Nova a slight down year and up pops Marquette. Now let’s rock.

There are very few key seniors in the A10. Virtually the entire league will be back next year. We'll know for sure which way the league is trending after the ooc schedule next fall.
 

 

2/10/2019 9:48 pm  #7


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

duq81 wrote:

KenOTR73 wrote:

I believe I had an 18 win season forecast. I’m going with 3 wins in the last 7. As I stated before I think both MH and SC are playing in pain and gutting it out. Much appreciation to those two, true warriors. My nagging concern is the decline of the A10. I hope that it’s only a one year dip. I look enviously at the Big East. ‘Nova a slight down year and up pops Marquette. Now let’s rock.

There are very few key seniors in the A10. Virtually the entire league will be back next year. We'll know for sure which way the league is trending after the ooc schedule next fall.
 

Interesting graphic in this tweet that highlights your point on youth, duq81.
https://twitter.com/3bidleaguepod/status/1094697107783602176?s=21

 

2/11/2019 9:46 am  #8


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

Thanks '81 and Phoenix. Feeling much better now.


WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
 

2/12/2019 5:08 am  #9


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

Nice to be included as a top 5 team in the Dayton newspaper article on toughest remaining A10 schedules.
https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/dayton-faces-toughest-remaining-schedule-atlantic-contenders/Fq6AC0AWVVMFAiAbnjv51H/

 

2/16/2019 3:33 pm  #10


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

[b][b]8 and 5 in the League with 5 to play.

0 Wins:  (Obviously off the board, but had they blown it today, it was going to be back at 20 -1 )

1 Wins:  5%   20 -1:  Still like them to beat U Mass here.

2 Wins:  40%  2.5 to 1:  Two of the best teams on the road, plus on the road at St. Bonaventure, where we never win.  Either beat the Bonnies or surprise Dayton here.

3 Wins:  30%  3.5-1: Bonnies, UMass and Dayton.

4 Wins:  20%  5-1:  Mason or St. Louis on the road.

5 Wins:  5%  20-1:  They have not been blown out by any team in the League so far this year, and have played 2 of the top 5 into the last minute.    Anything can happen.
[/b][/b]


 


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2/16/2019 3:39 pm  #11


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

Dayton is going to be s tough out but we almost got them on the road. March 9th st Palumbo is going to be intense. Also Gotta take those bastards from Oleans.

 

2/17/2019 8:44 am  #12


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

1111 Vickroy wrote:

Dayton is going to be s tough out but we almost got them on the road. March 9th st Palumbo is going to be intense. Also Gotta take those bastards from Oleans.

We've actually been decent against them at home recently. We're 5-5 against them at home since 2007, and only 2 of the losses were by double digits. I don't think I need to tell anyone here that the Flyers had better teams than us in pretty much all 10 matchups.

 

2/17/2019 10:15 am  #13


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

It would be a dramatic ending to the season if Dayton and Dukes play for that 4 seed last game of season.
I ve been thinking of buying extra tickets to keep UD fans from showing up if that happens.GO DUKES

 

 

2/17/2019 10:36 am  #14


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

stew wrote:

It would be a dramatic ending to the season if Dayton and Dukes play for that 4 seed last game of season.
I ve been thinking of buying extra tickets to keep UD fans from showing up if that happens.GO DUKES

 

 
Good post... it would be. 

It's frustrating to think we could have almost have it locked up.  Two missed last second shots separate us from being 10-3 and 19-7.


COFFEE
http://duquesnesports.blogspot.com/
Attitude is everything
 

2/17/2019 12:45 pm  #15


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

coffee wrote:

stew wrote:

It would be a dramatic ending to the season if Dayton and Dukes play for that 4 seed last game of season.
I ve been thinking of buying extra tickets to keep UD fans from showing up if that happens.GO DUKES

 

 
Good post... it would be.

It's frustrating to think we could have almost have it locked up. Two missed last second shots separate us from being 10-3 and 19-7.

I was thinking about that too and then I thought about the law of averages. Rather have those two games go against us now, rather than in the A 10 Tournament. Who knows? Maybe we get a luck last shot or good bounce on day three or four of the Tourney?
 


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2/17/2019 5:18 pm  #16


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

Tejas_Duke wrote:

coffee wrote:

stew wrote:

It would be a dramatic ending to the season if Dayton and Dukes play for that 4 seed last game of season.
I ve been thinking of buying extra tickets to keep UD fans from showing up if that happens.GO DUKES

 

Good post... it would be.

It's frustrating to think we could have almost have it locked up. Two missed last second shots separate us from being 10-3 and 19-7.

I was thinking about that too and then I thought about the law of averages. Rather have those two games go against us now, rather than in the A 10 Tournament. Who knows? Maybe we get a luck last shot or good bounce on day three or four of the Tourney?
 

True enough, but we've won our share of close ones and it wasn't until the 7th A10 win vs Fordham before they won a game by more than 6...yes,beat Bonnie's or SL and Dayton could be for the 4 seed and double bye!

 

2/17/2019 5:35 pm  #17


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

1111 Vickroy wrote:

Dayton is going to be s tough out but we almost got them on the road. March 9th st Palumbo is going to be intense. Also Gotta take those bastards from Oleans.

Those bastards from Olean won big today against GM who did not play very well. Very tough for anybody to win there.

 

2/18/2019 1:49 pm  #18


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

I like our chances at GMas, and IDK if it matters at all, but playing at SBU and SLU on week nights rather than weekends might help our chances, but both will be difficult.  
Hopefully we can win 2+ and possibly have the last game worth a double bye spot.  Would think for the last game at AJP, v Dayton, for a top 4 spot, some fans might show up and we rock the place.

Saw on an A10 twitter feed the odds of every team and where they finish the season, Dukes were slotted in at #7 overall, basically saying they will not do well down the stretch.  But the % pts from 5th to 7th were pretty tight.  Top 4 remain as is, SLU and SBU pass us up, we're 7th and URI is 8th I believe.  I guess 7 is the floor, and I think 3 is the ceiling.  

Last edited by townsonkid (2/19/2019 9:15 am)

 

2/23/2019 6:35 pm  #19


Re: Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for the final seven games.

I was all set to update this post, but I am going to wait until we get more word on Sincere Carry, because that is a huge factor.


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