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10/10/2016 4:52 pm  #26


Re: Get On The Record

8-5 Non Conference (they lose a couple of close ones; lack of playing together bites them in the butt)
7-11 A-10 Conference (they still can't compete with the upper half of the league)
1-1 A-10 Tourney
No postseason - Admin/Harper don't write the check for tourney; write check for buyout of contract
16-17

This is almost a repeat of what I said last year.  I believe this team has 20+ win talent; I really like what Ferry has done in increasing the talent level here. You could easily make the case that the talent level from 1-12 is higher than it's been over the last 25 years. But I'm not sold on getting the defensive play out of a Ferry coached team.  Ferry's best defensive team at Duquesne was last year's squad - finishing #212 in the country in defensive efficiency and 12th in the conference for the season.  And I believe that these defensive numbers have to improve significantly for the Dukes to take a step forward, since I anticipate the offensive numbers dropping with the loss of Mason and Colter.

I hope I am wrong.

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (10/10/2016 4:53 pm)

 

10/11/2016 7:18 am  #27


Re: Get On The Record

19 wins.  I'm being optimistic.  Also, Phoenix, I hope we will see an improvement in defense with the extra length at the guard positions.  Time will tell.  


"You have to be realistic about these things."  - Logen Ninefingers
 

10/11/2016 4:15 pm  #28


Re: Get On The Record

I think we can all agree that Ferry has been consistently underwhelming in terms of in game coaching. Part of me still holds the belief that part of the reason could be the lack of depth and size, especially  at the guard position. Dc was really a liability on d because of his size, and same for Micah but more because of raw athleticism. I think we have improved in these areas significantly. DC and Micah and now smith and Blackman. Hoping that will be the solution to the problem, we'll see though

Last edited by Duques102 (10/11/2016 4:36 pm)

 

10/11/2016 8:55 pm  #29


Re: Get On The Record

If your defensive positioning is 6 to 8 feet from a shooter, it doesn't matter if you're 5-10 or 6-2, the open look is there. I've seen too much of that from a Ferry coached team. Ferry's philosophy seems to be focused on limiting dribble drive penetration and making entry passes into the post more difficult. Thus, you see the Dukes' guards sagging quite a bit; with little or no ball pressure - a very passive defense. It could be that this was dictated by the lack of defensive skill from the guards he had (although I thought that Colter was a better on the ball defender vs sag/zone defender). I think this team will still continue to struggle with defense from the #2 guard, but I believe that Tarin Smith has a high quality defensive skill set. Whether we see that skill or not rests on the coaching staff - both philosophical (increase defensive pressure) and motivational (reward defense with playing time).

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (10/11/2016 8:56 pm)

 

10/12/2016 8:50 am  #30


Re: Get On The Record

We have over 300 registered posters, let's hear from the rest of you.  Is this the year that Ferry's Dukes turns the corner and has a winning season in the A10 that most are predicting so far, or does the season end in  disappointment again?  To sweeten the pot an all expense two day paid trip to beautiful downtown McKeesport will be given to the winner (lodging, travel, and any other expense excluded).  

Here is what we have so far:

CLK 20
Phildog 17
Mulder 21
Dukes2012 19
ElDuque 22
President 17
yak-rbc 15
heelsdukesfan 17
FAM 16
scduke 19
duq81 19
currentstudent 16
Econ69 14
KenOTR73 18
VBC 25
Phil95 21
WashPaRick 15
applecorps 20
Duques102 24
PhoenixRising2 16
Simms 19

Average = 18 wins

 

     Thread Starter
 

10/12/2016 11:10 am  #31


Re: Get On The Record

Simms wrote:

ElDuque wrote:

Wow. I give you guys credit to have the courage of your convictions at this stage.

We have two returning starters, one of whom (James) may be bumped to 6th man. Three guys who never played together or for the Dukes might be the team's top scoring options (Smith, Blackman, Abrahamson). Two young big men (Sanders, Mike) might force their way into the starting lineup. Castro is still a wild card.

Since my head isn't ready to do this yet (maybe by the deadline), I'll go with my heart:
10-3 OOC, including a win over Pitt
10-8 A-10
2-1 in the A-10 tournament

20-11 before and 22-12 after the A-10s. We're tuned into ESPN on a Sunday night, and with a couple good wins on our schedule, we dance.

Subject to further review...

If this happens, I promise I will buy every member of this message board a drink before a game the following season, or at the Big Dance game since I would almost certainly go.  

I have a standing bet with my guy over at Alumni relations for a steak dinner at the location of the Dukes first round tournament game. He's paying because of the size of the checks I will finally be writing  :-)  My only hope is that I am still able to eat solid food at that point 
 


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

10/12/2016 1:11 pm  #32


Re: Get On The Record

My prediction was actually 18 wins, not 17. Don't wish to appear any more pessimistic that I am. If things go surprisingly right, the team could win 20 but how often do things go that way around here. I'll stick with 18 but with cautious optimism.

 

10/12/2016 1:46 pm  #33


Re: Get On The Record

president wrote:

Hate to do this but here goes.
9-4 OOC
7-11 A10
1-1 A10 tournament
1-1 CBI or something like it.
18-17 Overall
I do hope I am dead wrong!! This is with my head, not my heart.

We are not counting post season games.  Just through A10 tourney. :-)
 
 

     Thread Starter
 

10/12/2016 4:33 pm  #34


Re: Get On The Record

Heart says more , gut says 19

 

10/13/2016 8:40 am  #35


Re: Get On The Record

Phildog wrote:

KenOTR73 wrote:

Ah, the optimism runs rampant in late September. To quote Gordon Lightfoot "That good ship and crew was a bone to be chewed. When the gales of November came early".  ​Like FAM, I have been a skeptic these last few years. Too many unknowns to jump on the bandwagon just yet.
9-4 OOC, including a win over Pitt
8-10 in the A-10
1-1 in the A-10 tournament

18-15 overall

 

 
Ken,

Back in the days when the Edmund Fitzgerald was a popular radio hit, I was a young traveling salesmen with long hair a little over my ears and a Duquesne Fan who never saw the collapse coming, dropping to the bottom with DAP, Nee and Company.

Ferry seems to be bringing in better players , but the constant turnover of good players and unfulfilled potential on others has disappointed. But I never seem to give up, btw, I always enjoy when you post.

Likewise, Phil! Hope springs eternal!
 


WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
 

10/13/2016 9:13 am  #36


Re: Get On The Record

Wow, a lot of optimism on the Board, which is a good thing, but given so many disappointments in the past I am going with 17 wins total.  Like others I think the have the talent to win 21 or 22 games, but any of us are entitled to think "show me"!!  Go Dukes.

 

10/23/2016 9:10 am  #37


Re: Get On The Record

This is what we have "On The Record" so far.  As it stands right now, the average  is 18.5 (call it 19) wins.  At 19 wins, or even 18 wins, there is no way the Dukes finish 13th in the League.    

CLK 20
Phildog 17
Mulder 21
Dukes2012 19
ElDuque 22
President 17
yak-rbc 15
heelsdukesfan 17
FAM 16
scduke 19
duq81 19
currentstudent 16
Econ69 14
KenOTR73 18
VBC 25
Phil95 21
WashPaRick 15
applecorps 20
Duques102 24
PhoenixRising2 16
Simms 19
bummer3341 19
PistolPete 17
grammudder 19
HookShot 19


Anybody else?  You can change your prediction up to November 4th, after that you are officially On The Record.  
 

     Thread Starter
 

10/23/2016 7:56 pm  #38


Re: Get On The Record

CLK wrote:

We have over 300 registered posters, let's hear from the rest of you.  Is this the year that Ferry's Dukes turns the corner and has a winning season in the A10 that most are predicting so far, or does the season end in  disappointment again?  To sweeten the pot an all expense two day paid trip to beautiful downtown McKeesport will be given to the winner (lodging, travel, and any other expense excluded).  

Here is what we have so far:

CLK 20
Phildog 17
Mulder 21
Dukes2012 19
ElDuque 22
President 17
yak-rbc 15
heelsdukesfan 17
FAM 16
scduke 19
duq81 19
currentstudent 16
Econ69 14
KenOTR73 18
VBC 25
Phil95 21
WashPaRick 15
applecorps 20
Duques102 24
PhoenixRising2 16
Simms 19
​                                                                  apluski 19
Average = 18 wins

 

 

 

10/24/2016 7:44 am  #39


Re: Get On The Record

A no expense paid trip to McKeesport, I'm in.

​10 wins OOC, 10 wins Conf. and 3 wins A10 Tourney---Total 23.

 

10/24/2016 10:10 am  #40


Re: Get On The Record

20 wins and I Mike gets A10 ROY award

 

10/24/2016 4:45 pm  #41


Re: Get On The Record

fjhryn wrote:

I would love to see 20, but after 50 years as a season ticket holder, I think 16 is the best to expect. I hope I'm wrong on the short end!

 
After 50 years, you are overdue for a pleasant surprise, and it's looking pretty likely to happen!

 

10/25/2016 9:44 am  #42


Re: Get On The Record

Updated

CLK 20
Phildog 17
Mulder 21
Dukes2012 19
ElDuque 22
President 17
yak-rbc 15
heelsdukesfan 17
FAM 16
scduke 19
duq81 19
currentstudent 16
Econ69 14
KenOTR73 18
VBC 25
Phil95 21
WashPaRick 15
applecorps 20
Duques102 24
PhoenixRising2 16
Simms 19
bummer3341 19
PistolPete 17
grammudder 19
HookShot 19

apluski 19
MikeR 23
lilpav 20
fjhryn 16

Average 19 wins.  Seems that the fans expectations for the most part is that this will be a breakout year with a winning season and the Dukes moving up in the League, despite the 13th place prediction.  17 posters have predicted 18 wins or greater, and 12 posters believe the Dukes will not reach 18 wins.  The range of estimates is from a low of 14 wins to a high of 25.  If you eliminate these two predictions the adjusted average is still 19 wins.  So this is shaping up to either be a year of great satisfaction if we are right, or immense disappointment if A10 poll is correct and the Dukes finish with a losing record in 13th place. 

Anybody else want to Get On The Record?

     Thread Starter
 

11/03/2016 6:02 pm  #43


Re: Get On The Record

Still time to Get On The Record.  

     Thread Starter
 

11/07/2016 9:49 am  #44


Re: Get On The Record

Last day to Get on The Record or change your projection is 11/10

     Thread Starter
 

11/07/2016 12:34 pm  #45


Re: Get On The Record

ElDuque wrote:

Wow. I give you guys credit to have the courage of your convictions at this stage.

We have two returning starters, one of whom (James) may be bumped to 6th man. Three guys who never played together or for the Dukes might be the team's top scoring options (Smith, Blackman, Abrahamson). Two young big men (Sanders, Mike) might force their way into the starting lineup. Castro is still a wild card.

Since my head isn't ready to do this yet (maybe by the deadline), I'll go with my heart:
10-3 OOC, including a win over Pitt
10-8 A-10
2-1 in the A-10 tournament

20-11 before and 22-12 after the A-10s. We're tuned into ESPN on a Sunday night, and with a couple good wins on our schedule, we dance.

Subject to further review...

 
Official with my head prediction:

7-6 OOC
7-11 A10
One and done in A10

14-18 all together.

Rooting for my heart.

 

11/08/2016 11:07 am  #46


Re: Get On The Record

Still staying with my 16 because the "cupcakes". OOC schedule is back!  That is the only way we ended up with an even record.  So the numbers will be there, but it will be against teams that aren't very good.

 

11/09/2016 7:35 am  #47


Re: Get On The Record

17

9-4 OOC
7-11 A10
1-1

Not quite ready for prime time, but young guys will show enough that we'll be very high next year this time.

 

11/09/2016 7:42 am  #48


Re: Get On The Record

Mulder wrote:

CLK wrote:

Last day to Get on The Record or change your projection is 11/10

change from 21 to 13.
 

 
Mulder I hope if my "heart" prediction is wrong, then yours is right.

I actually think the team will get better as the year goes on.

 

11/09/2016 2:43 pm  #49


Re: Get On The Record

There need to be better coaching choices here than we had yesterday at the polls. So far, the choices on election day "trump" the basketball choices made which is sad indeed!

 

11/09/2016 4:11 pm  #50


Re: Get On The Record

Folks with all due respect social media is miserable with political crap and this is a Duquesne basketball message board. So I ask that we please stop. Thank you.

 

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