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1/08/2019 8:44 pm  #1


Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

8:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/09/2019 at the A.J. Palumbo Center.
Per KenPom:
Dukes #174 (9-5; 0-1) vs Fordham Rams #218 (9-5; 8-5 vs D-1; 0-1) - Atlantic 10 Conference
Game prediction: Dukes win by 6, 68-62 - Dukes with 71% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 7 point favorites; Over/Under 129
Duquesne 5-8-1 Against the Spread: Fordham 5-8 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Radford (126); Marshall (131)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): NJIT (167); Pitt (93); Davidson (90)
Fordham Best Win(s): Rutgers (115); FIU (212)
Fordham Worst Loss(es): Maine (336); Houston Baptist (260); LIU Brooklyn (253)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Fordham for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength:  None
Offensive Weakness:  FT Rate (260)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (49); Effective FG % (61)
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (329)

Here's a look at Fordham in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (2)
Offensive Weakness:  Turnover % (13); Effective FG % (13)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (1); Offensive Rebound % (1)
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (14)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (49)
Offensive Weakness:  Turnover % (295)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (9)
Defensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (307)

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (4)
Offensive Weakness:  FT Rate (13)
Defensive Strength:  None
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (13); FT Rate (13)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Fordham Adj Offense Efficiency - 97.0; 284 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 101.5; 141 in D-1
Fordham Adj Defense Efficiency - 102.0; 150 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 100.6; 221 in D-1
Fordham Adj Tempo - 65.1; 334 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 70.4; 128 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - Fordham 1.15 yrs; 319 in D-1; Dukes 0.69 yrs; 348 in D-1
Average Height - Fordham 76.0"; 290 in D-1; Dukes 75.9"; 299 in D-1

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/09/2019 10:00 am)

 

1/09/2019 9:50 am  #2


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Phoenix...appreciate this for each game.  Any way you can also list the Dukes’ best wins and worst losses each time also?
Thanks,
FAM

As I said on another thread, this game will tell a lot about the coach getting the kids ready after a close loss vs. a team that someone decided we should be favored in...I really don’t like it when we are favored...double edged sword.   

 

1/09/2019 9:52 am  #3


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

FAM wrote:

Phoenix...appreciate this for each game. Any way you can also list the Dukes’ best wins and worst losses each time also?
Thanks,
FAM

As I said on another thread, this game will tell a lot about the coach getting the kids ready after a close loss vs. a team that someone decided we should be favored in...I really don’t like it when we are favored...double edged sword.

I'm looking forward to the day when we're always the favorite at home. That's how it is when you're really good.

 

1/09/2019 10:02 am  #4


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

FAM wrote:

Phoenix...appreciate this for each game. Any way you can also list the Dukes’ best wins and worst losses each time also?
Thanks,
FAM

FAM, good suggestion; updated above. Thanks.
 

     Thread Starter
 

1/09/2019 10:21 am  #5


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Thanks Phoenix...that really gives us a more broad perspective for each game.  Thanks again for doing this.

Duq81 - Me too...but since we aren’t there yet, it just increases my Duquesne BB Season medication.

Last edited by FAM (1/09/2019 10:23 am)

 

1/09/2019 6:11 pm  #6


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Heard a KD interview someone posted and he mentioned the fact that we need a big game from Weathers tonight because of the defense they sometimes play, he called it a “junk defense” (1-3 spots play man while the 4 and 5 play zone under the basket). He mentioned it forces the 4 man to shoot and distribute effectively. He said we had trouble with it last year and he may consider giving EW some minutes at the 4 to help deal with it.

Goes along with what Alan told us regarding what they were going over in practice this week. Hoping for a big game from MW and a win for the Dukes!

 

1/09/2019 8:30 pm  #7


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Low scoring affair just like coach seems to like.

 

1/09/2019 9:20 pm  #8


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Way too close for comfort.

 

1/09/2019 9:34 pm  #9


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Every time we get a little breathing room, they respond with a 3.

 

1/09/2019 9:51 pm  #10


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Not pretty but a win nonetheless. EW really took over down the stretch. Gave up too many 3s and second chance points though. Gotta clean that up.

 

1/09/2019 10:02 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

We are offensively challenged.

 

1/09/2019 10:16 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

WashPaRick wrote:

We are offensively challenged.

Absolutely. We are gonna have to grind out games to win. We are really due for a game where more than one guy is shooting well.

 

1/09/2019 10:48 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Not pretty but a win.

I was impressed with the improved offensive work against the zone. This is still not a strength but a big improvement from the near shut-out at Davidson. Kelly, Weathers, & EW all got easy baskets by working the holes.

EW was quite good but you can see how frustrated he is that he gets missed so often by his teammates.This group is still lacking the experience to get him the ball in his spots. Frankie missed him several times for excellent 3 opportunities.

MHughes is not in a good way. Happy he didn't have to play much & hope his shoulder isn't hurt. It will be hard to meet season expectations if he can't get close to 100%.

At this point I think it is more accurate to write that this team plays a lot of people rather than it has a deep bench.

 

 

1/09/2019 11:22 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

I'm starting to lose my optimism.  I look at the team and see that, yes, there is way more talent there than Jim Ferry had, but I think there should be more progress shown by now, this far into the season. Yet I still see the same bone-head mistakes, bad passes, poor shot selection and mental miscues, that a well-coached team should not see this far into the season.

Hope I am wrong.
 


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

1/09/2019 11:33 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Tejas_Duke wrote:

I'm starting to lose my optimism.  I look at the team and see that, yes, there is way more talent there than Jim Ferry had, but I think there should be more progress shown by now, this far into the season. Yet I still see the same bone-head mistakes, bad passes, poor shot selection and mental miscues, that a well-coached team should not see this far into the season.

Hope I am wrong.
 

I feel your pain Tejas. I am still bummed about the whole Lewis affair. How do you go from a main cog in an offense to "don't let the door hit you on the way out". We sorely lack a consistent long-range sniper. I was counting on ML to throw down 10-12 points per game even in a reduced role. Time will tell but with Mike Hughes physical ailments, points are now hard to come by.
 


WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
 

1/09/2019 11:45 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Very concerning to see M. Hughes after Eric's great play late in the game.  Michael was on the bench and got really enthused and then seemed to almost collapse, with somebody helping to prop him up. Understand that he has asthma issues on top of orthopedic ones, but that was a bit disturbing to see. 

Hoping it was some flu or some anomaly. He is a very talented and highly motivated kid and I hope he is all right.

 

1/10/2019 5:34 am  #17


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

On the positive side, Amari Kelly showed nice potential. 

 

1/10/2019 6:41 am  #18


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

applecorps wrote:

Very concerning to see M. Hughes after Eric's great play late in the game.  Michael was on the bench and got really enthused and then seemed to almost collapse, with somebody helping to prop him up. Understand that he has asthma issues on top of orthopedic ones, but that was a bit disturbing to see. 

Hoping it was some flu or some anomaly. He is a very talented and highly motivated kid and I hope he is all right.

That was just the dramatic dunk reaction players like to do - he was all smiles about it.

I don't know how good Fordham is, but they have some nice players, and I think, are trending the right way. I don't think they are in the cellar this year. Let's hope not, because the Dukes were 2 or 3 plays from losing to them at home. 
They didn't though - so we'll focus on the positive.
Frankie played good D on 13 after he torched them repeatedly and people slacked off to help inside.
Amari had a nice game too
After a slow start, mostly due to not getting the touches in a good spot, Eric made up for it in the second half
Weathers takes a lot of heat, but when he gets the ball, the offense actually sort of works. He's either going in the lane for a layup, or passing out to someone with a look. Sincere drives and kicks too, but Weathers was making things happen last night.
On the downside - Fordham got way too many offensive rebounds, and the Dukes are still turning the ball over. I am not sure if it was due to Fordham's defense, but the Dukes really need to add some off ball motion to their offense. Also - a few parents of the Dukes players had a conversation about the attendance being what it was so, there is that...








 

 

1/10/2019 7:05 am  #19


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Attendance was indeed pathetic like it has been all year. I think the students were just starting back as i saw a lot of cars driving around campus. Maybe im wrong on that. It was ugly. Almost felt like a loss. All the A10 games are going to be a battle for a victory.

 

1/10/2019 7:42 am  #20


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

MHughes was sick leading up to the game per KD.  Kelly was preparing to get more minutes, and did, and came thru.  I think he and Carry are the building blocks of this team(freshman class-wise).

They passes to no one, alley oop passes, probably 3-4 that I remember, that werent touched by one of our guys.  Thats potentially 6-12 pts lost.  The "I'm bored and dont know what to do, so I'll chcuk from here" 3 pt shots gotta go.

Bizeau has a nice jumper, watched him a lot in warm ups(yeah I know), but he knows how to accept a pass and get up a decent looking shot very quickly.  But he still looks like a baby deer out there.

Rotroff has taken a leap backwards, from I dont think any of us expected 17 ppg from him(W&M game).

Its a work in progress, KD said he'll take the W, but they gotta get better.  I think we all feel the same.

 

1/10/2019 8:25 am  #21


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

phil95 wrote:

Not pretty but a win.

I was impressed with the improved offensive work against the zone. This is still not a strength but a big improvement from the near shut-out at Davidson. Kelly, Weathers, & EW all got easy baskets by working the holes.

EW was quite good but you can see how frustrated he is that he gets missed so often by his teammates.This group is still lacking the experience to get him the ball in his spots. Frankie missed him several times for excellent 3 opportunities.

MHughes is not in a good way. Happy he didn't have to play much & hope his shoulder isn't hurt. It will be hard to meet season expectations if he can't get close to 100%.

At this point I think it is more accurate to write that this team plays a lot of people rather than it has a deep bench.

 

The bench are developing freshman.  SMH

Here are the stats for Micheal Hughes as a freshman at Akron (and keep in mind he played in the lowly MAC)
https://gozips.com/documents/2017/6/28//Akron_MBB_Stats_2016_17.pdf?id=12177

Min per game      7.3
FG%                    .458
FT%                     .650
RPG                    1.2
Min / foul             5.84  (team average 11.01)

While the stats did not show it he obviously had talent....just needed development.    I suspect many of the current freshman will also see great development between yr1 and yr2.


 

 

1/10/2019 8:28 am  #22


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Happy to have the win. Look at the A10 scores last night. With one exception, every game was a grind. Expect this trend for almost every game we play.

 

1/10/2019 8:33 am  #23


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

pressurecooker wrote:

On the positive side, Amari Kelly showed nice potential. 

Very talented kid with big upside.  Hope he is figuring out how to play hard without fouling. It will be a HUGE plus going forward. Prior to the Fordham game he was fouling every 4.448 minutes.  You can't rely on someone that foul prone...especially late in the game.  Fordham game he fouled every 12.5 minutes.  Fordham got a lot of offensive rebounds...I am guessing this was partly due to Kelly playing under more control trying to avoid fouling.  Someday down the road he will be able to play hard and physical without fouling....but this is a good sign in his development.

 

1/10/2019 8:41 am  #24


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

applecorps wrote:

Weathers takes a lot of heat, but when he gets the ball, the offense actually sort of works. He's either going in the lane for a layup, or passing out to someone with a look. Sincere drives and kicks too, but Weathers was making things happen last night.
 

Keep in mind that with modest improvement Weathers can be an adequate back-up for us.  We would have smoked Fordham if that "tool" KD would relegate Weathers to the bench and bring him in for knuckle dragging, head knocking 3-4 minutes.  Maybe next game.....
 

 

1/10/2019 8:41 am  #25


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (H)

Agree on EW's obvious frustration. They have to get him the ball when he is in his " spot".
Agree on Mike Lewis. This offense needs a gunner. He is missed.
They have to take care of the ball. Too many unforced errors.
The attendance was and is pathetic.
My student teacher this semester is a Senior at Duquesne.
I have been to more games this season than she has attended in 4 years.
She told me the students " just don't care" ( except for Pitt at the Paints).
It's embarrassing.


"Facts are stubborn things."
                                 John Adams
 

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