townsonkid wrote:

kidd082000 wrote:

4th Seed Scenarios

If St. Louis wins vs. Dayton on Friday, Duquesne just needs to beat Fordham to get the 4th seed.

If St Louis loses to Dayton on Friday, Duquesne needs to beat Fordham and George Mason to beat Richmond. 

If Duquesne beats Fordham and St. Louis and George Mason both lose, they will be the 5th seed. 

Does GW factor in at all? They are 10-7 too. They play VCU Saturday.

Dayton v StL is friday night.

No, because Duquesne, St. Louis and Fordham all went 1-0 against GW so they have no chance and they don't change any of the scenarios.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble but we have ZERO chance at an NIT bid. There are 32 spots, figure a minimum of 8-10 spots for regular season champs who lose in their conference tournament, which leaves 22-24 spots. If we use Lunardi's projections from this morning, the first 8 out of the NCAA tournament are UNC, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Michigan, Utah St., Charleston, Penn St. and Texas Tech. Even if we figure Charleston wins the CAA tournament and goes to the NCAA, that is 7 more teams going to the NIT. So we are down to 15-17 spots. 

From there, it is a long list of teams that would make the NIT ahead of Duquesne when considering NET, SOR, KenPom and attractiveness to the NIT: Tulane, Cincinnati, UCF, Dayton, St. Louis, Fordham, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Villanova, St. John's, Nebraska, N. Texas, UAB, Kent St., Drake, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington St., Vanderbilt, Florida, Santa Clara and Liberty.

The math doesn't add up unfortunately. With that being said, I do think we can win the A-10 Tournament and go the NCAA!!!

DennisC91 wrote:

kidd082000 wrote:

...Anyway, I have the breakdown below which shows 14 scholarship players if we are including Gunn, but remember that Rotroff doesn't count against the scholarship limit because he is using his extra Covid year. 

Unfortunately, Rotroff does count against the scholarship limit for this year. The rule that allowed 5th-year seniors to not count against their teams' scholarship limits if they stayed with the same program only applied to the 2021-22 season. He still gets his extra year of eligibility from the 2020-21 season not counting against players' eligibility, but he will count against this season's scholarship limit if he remains at Duquesne. See: https://twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/1316746615269580802

Ohh I didn't realize that, thanks for the clarification Dennis! 
 

levon1975 wrote:

My understanding is that going forward they will get one transfer without penalty; but remember that the rule doesn't apply once the player has graduated; but retains eligibility.  The "grad transfer" doesn't sit out a year, even if he transferred earlier in his career.  So if you see a guy, that you know has already transferred once, moving to another school and playing instantly; it is probably because he graduated from his second school.  That would apply to Marcus Weathers, whom, I assume has a Duquesne degree; so he could transfer again without penalty.
Keep in mind that this year is a lot more hectic, because of the Covid rule that basically gives every player an extra year of eligibility.  Many of the transfers this year, like Marcus, are players that would have exhausted their eligibility after last season.  I haven't heard anything about Mike Hughes' professional status; but if he doesn't get a Euro contract, he could play for Duquesne again, or transfer to the school of his choice for one year.  

The one time transfer exception does apply to all players now, even grad transfers. So if you transferred last year and are a grad transfer this year, you have to sit out next season unless you get a waiver. Players like James Akinjo who transferred to Baylor and Rasior Bolton who transferred to Gonzaga will need a waiver to play this year, even as graduating seniors using their extra year of eligibility. Marcus Weathers doesn't have to sit out though because he sat out a year when he transferred to Duquesne, so this would be his one time exception. 
 

phil95 wrote:

Someone needs to explain to me how a team, St. Louis, that the Dukes handled last year, added no significant talent, & was abysmal from the foul line is rated 39 places in front of DU.

I think the Dukes rank is spot-on & that the team has a reasonable chance to finish 15 spots better or 25 spots worse for the season. Starting the Billikens higher than 60 seems a major stretch.

St. Louis was ranked 49th in the final NET rankings and 62nd in KenPom (44th Defensively). They didn't lose anyone, they return 3 all-conference performers, an all-rookie selection, and two guys who missed most of the season, plus they are bringing in a decent transfer. But for more clarity, see below from Jon Rothstein:

3. Is Saint Louis being underrated nationally?It certainly feels that way.
The Billikens were one of the hottest teams in America at the end of last season and were set to take a five-game winning streak into the Atlantic 10 Tournament in Brooklyn before it was cancelled. Everyone is back for the Billikens, headlined by the troika of Jordan Goodwin, Hasahn French, and Javonte Perkins, a burgeoning star who averaged 18.2 points during conference play. Gibson Jimerson and Fred Thatch — two starting caliber players who only combined to play 16 games last season due to injuries — are also back. The 6-5 Jimerson shot 42.9 percent from three-point range last year in 10 games as a freshman and should immediately improve Saint Louis’ offensive spacing. Remember: Travis Ford’s team won 23 games last season, highlighted by two close losses by a combined eight points to Dayton. One of those defeats came on a last second shot by Jalen Crutcher at Chaifetz Arena. The Billikens have all the requisites to be the best non-power conference team in college basketball next season.

Hi everyone, I am new to the board, been reading it every day since the Dambrot hire but haven't posted anything. But just saw that Jon Rothstein tweeted that Spencer Littleson is transferring, so I guess that answers the question about the remaining scholarship!

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein