PhoenixRising2 wrote:

So far, so good.  The Dukes apparently handled Towson fairly easily in a scrimmage and stomped on Urbana in the exhibition.  These results didn't throw up any caution flags, but they certainly haven't given anyone a good indication of the quality of this year's edition of the Dukes.

I think the results over the next two weeks will be a very good predictor of whether this team can have a winning record or even get to the 18-20 win plateau.  Here's the 6 games:
• 11/13 - Seton Hill (D-2) - Home
• 11/16 - New Orleans (293) - Home
• 11/20 - Penn State (117) - Home (Consol Energy Center)
• 11/23 - Pepperdine (89) - Neutral (Gulf Coast Showcase)
• 11/24 - Murray State (163) or Milwaukee (177) - Neutral (Gulf Coast Showcase)
• 11/25 - Western Kentucky (217), Drake (232), Central Michigan (80) or Weber State (149) - Neutral (Gulf Coast Showcase)
Note: the numbers in parentheses are the current Pomeroy preseason ratings.  The Dukes are #128.

In my opinion,
4 or more wins would be a very good start
3 wins would not tell us a whole bunch
2 wins or less would be a very poor start

I'm projecting 3 wins; again I hope I'm wrong and that they can get 4 (which I think they have the talent to do).  How many wins do you think the Dukes will have during this 6 games in 13 day stretch to start the season?

I'm looking for 4 wins there. Losing to Seton Hill, or New Orleans at home would be a disaster, so I'm counting 2 wins there. The other 4 games are the key. We need to either beat Penn State, or we need to win 2 in Florida. With likely losses to Pitt, and GT, this would leave the door open to finish 9-4 ooc. Of course, beating Bobby Mo is a must. Go 1-3 in those 4 games, and it will be a struggle to finish above .500. Go 3-1, and we should finish the ooc 10-3, which would indicate a pretty good team, and one with a chance to win 20 games. Go 4-0, and this is likely a breakthrough season, NIT, and maybe even on the bubble.
 

I won't get into predictions here especially when half of these games are TBD. I see on Duquesne's athletic site that the last time we played Seton Hill it was an exhibition game in which we started Achara, Saunders, AJax, and the run and dunk twins (Tuck and Jackson). We emptied the bench, played such walkons as Lucas Newton and Jason Duty, and won by 63. Of course, when I suggested we should beat a bad DII team by 50 based on the optimism that so many seem to have, I got referred to a psychiatric clinic.

Let me start here. To get to my projected 10 wins this season, you HAVE to beat Seton Hill.and you have to beat them by an overwhelming margin.

A loss, and you may not even see 10 wins. A close win, and it's still difficult.

In Ferry's own words, if you're taking the next step, you have to turn last year's near-disaster into a big win. You have to rebound and play defense, get balanced scoring, don't turn the ball over, hit FTs with regularity, and win big.

CLK wrote:

Let's make a statement and win all 6. 

That would be historical.  The Dukes have not won won an in-season 8 team tournament requiring 3 wins since 1954 - the Dukes won the Holiday Tournament in Madison Square Garden in both 1953 (when they were ranked #3 in the country) and 1954 (when they were ranked #9 in the country). 

CLK wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

CLK wrote:

Let's make a statement and win all 6. 

That would be historical.  The Dukes have not won won an in-season 8 team tournament requiring 3 wins since 1954 - the Dukes won the Holiday Tournament in Madison Square Garden in both 1953 (when they were ranked #3 in the country) and 1954 (when they were ranked #9 in the country). 

Thanks Phoenix, I did not know that.  Here is my thinking, this field of teams are pretty much on par with us.  There are no high majors in the field.  Somebody is going to win three games, why not us.  Let's eliminate this footnote from history.   
 

CLK, I agree with everything you say. I do believe that our depth can help keep the Dukes fresh with these tightly scheduled games.

Tejas_Duke wrote:

I have a good feeling about the Penn State game at home. Don't ask why, just a gut hunch!

I have that same feeling. In some ways, Penn State's situation is similar to ours. They ran off a coach that had some modest success (he wasn't fired, but the door was held wide open for him to leave). They are now in year 5 of the new coach, and it hasn't paid off yet, despite good recruits on paper. The natives are getting restless.
 

The Dome wrote:

Wish I shared your optimism on the PSU game. Last year we lost a game at State College that we should have won. I'm not sure if we even got a shot off or if it was a Hail Mary 3 just remember we had the final possession down 2. I also remember that fine double high offense with Lewis at the top of the key and no where near the rim if we did throw one up. BTW PSU's first two games are VMI & DePaul not great but not 2-D2 teams and New Orleans. Oh and RMU is playing Penn tonight and Cincinnati on Sunday.

RMU has to whore itself out during the ooc. Low majors can't avoid it. UC ain't coming to Sewell, that's for sure, and they wouldn't come to Palumbo either.
 

Well, I think we learned quite a bit about the Dukes over the past two weeks. I thought that this team had the talent to win 18 to 20 games this year, and they are on track right now to reach that plateau. Right now, Pomeroy is projecting the Dukes to finish their regular season slate at 18-13, with at least one more A-10 tourney game to be decided.  So far, Jim Ferry and his staff have done a good job of getting wins out of this team.  Certainly there is a long way to go, but things are looking up for the Dukes.

The Dukes have played 5 games against D-1 competition.  They are ranked at #114 in the country (finished last year at #207) by Pomeroy. The Dukes are:
1-1 vs. Pomeroy 101-150 ranked teams (Pepperdine #132; Milwaukee #134)
2-0 vs. 151-200 ranked teams (Western Kentucky #157; Penn St. #181)
1-0 vs. 251-300 ranked teams (New Orleans #286)
     Note:  Mississippi Valley St. is #349; Pitt is #32

Most everyone agreed that the biggest single area of improvement had to come from the defensive side; the Dukes simply had to be better, not great, defensively. As I will point out in some Pomeroy stats below, the Dukes are better. And it appears that a lot of the defensive improvement has come from having a bigger, stronger front court. Teams are shooting about the same as last year from the beyond the arc, but the 2 point defense has improved dramatically. We're getting more rebounds, not giving up as many offensive boards. But the Dukes are fouling a lot (front court youth and perhaps not giving up an easy bucket) and still don't generate a ton of turnovers.  But all in all, the Dukes are a much better defensive team than last year, but still statistically a below average D-1 unit.

Offensively, our seniors have performed at an exceptionally high level of efficiency.  Colter, Mason and Jones are ranked in the top 166 players in the country for effective field goal percentage; and in the top 333 players in the country for Offensive Rating.  When you combine this offensive power with an improved defense, it's clear to see why the Dukes are 5-1.

They certainly need to get better defensively - they have played very good defense in one entire game (Penn St.) and one half of very good defense in 2 other games (New Orleans and Western Kentucky). If they can bring those kinds of efforts more consistently, then the Dukes ceiling becomes much higher for this season.

Individual Offensive Efficiency (D-1 Average is 102.0)
Mason 129.2 - #146 in country
Colter 122.3 - #310
Jones 121.7 - #333
Effective Field Goal % (D-1 Average is 49.0%)
Jones 69.1% - #47 in country
Mason 62.1% - #161
Colter 61.8% - #166

Team Defense 3 point FG Percentage (D-1 Avg. is 34.1%)
This Year: 38.3% - #285 in country
Last Year: 38.5% - #331
Team Defense 2 point FG Percentage (D-1 Avg. is 48.4%)
This Year: 40.1% - #18 in country
Last Year: 37.7% - #161
Team Defense Effective FG Percentage (D-1 Avg. is 49.4%)
This Year: 46.3% - #88 in country
Last Year: 51.7% - #282
Team Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (D-1 Avg is 102.0)
This Year: 103.9 - #224 in country
Last Year: 110.8 - #322
Team Offensive Rebounding Allowed  (D-1 Avg is 30.4%)
This Year: 29.9% - #158 in country
Last Year: 33.3% - #277
Team Defensive Turnover % (D-1 Avg is 18.6%)
This Year: 16.2% - #273 in country
Last Year: 16.0% - #328
Team FTA/FGA % (D-1 Avg is 37.9%)
This Year: 51.8% - #321 in country
Last Year: 33.8% - #113
 

Ditto to that PR. As an aside, Pomeroy had the Dukes at 16-15 at the beginning of the year. Obviously, the Dukes have done some things in the early going that justify Pomeroy changing his numbers. Having witnessed all the games in person or on my computer there is little doubt of the improvement in the Dukes that verifies the numbers. Especially the team defense efficiency against the two.