Yes, great win. The other team played well in the first half and played tough.  

Liked how Ferry went from the man to man and then back to the zone. Nice mix up on the defense that stymied SCSU

I am getting the idea that Lewis is a hot and cold player depending on the situation of the game.  When things are going good, he plays well and feeds off the emotion, but when things aren't going well, he gets pretty tentative and makes mental errors.

I think that was Powell's best game since his performance in the upset of Dayton last year.

Sanders is really impressing me. Looks good for a freshman.

Ferry has lit a fire under Powell. He has really coached him up the past two games. Experienced teams win these last two games. Inexperienced teams likely would have folded.

Tejas_Duke wrote:

OH yeah, one more thing. Castro SUCKS!

On Castro, I think he's playing with zero confidence right now and it's showing. It's hard to see it when you're not at the game, but his body language tells the entire story. I havent seen the kid smile since UNO. The game looks too fast for him and he's a step behind reading defenses especially when passing.

That said, I thought all of his looks at the basket were solid tonight. His first he slipped as he was shooting a floater and made a put back on an awkward lay up for the second. The last he had space and just missed the short jumper. If he keeps getting in the lane the way he has I think he'll start to turn it around.

 

Last edited by steve19981 (12/17/2015 2:21 am)

godukes1970 wrote:

Tejas_Duke wrote:

OH yeah, one more thing. Castro SUCKS!

I hate to come down hard on any of the Dukes, but I believe you have a point.  I believe on at least two occasions he drove to the hoop from the right side, he put the ball up very weakly, and it hit the rim from its underside. He may have gotten the rebound; but in spite of SCS's taller players hovered over him, he attempted to shoot through their outstretched hands resulting in the the Dukes losing possession of the ball.  He also showed some very hurly-jerky (not in a good way) movements at times while dribbling the ball as he moved down the lane.  He looks very uncomfortable out there, or is it that he makes me very uncomfortable watching him struggle.  Hopefully he can return to the form that Coach Ferry saw in him when he recruited him out of high school.

By the way,  Sagarin predictor score had the Dukes favored by 15 1/2 pts. over SCS tonight.  For what it's worth, Sagarin also ranked the Dukes at #127, SCS at #305, and Robert Morris (1-9) at #313.  
 

 

And his one assist was in the paint to the other team.

Don't want to get too over optimistic just yet. We beat a bunch of cream-puffs to this point and fell-apart against the only 2 quality teams.  The Dukes are strong on the open 3's and young and weak inside. If I were Ferry, I'd start to center the next couple of games inside to get the feeling of fighting for some ground when we get to conf. play. Still, our senior leaders are on the perimeter, and will be attacked more in conf. play making   the Dukes play the inside game to win.  SCSU left the 3 wide open just too many times, but I must agree, the Dukes look way better than I thought they would be.  I like Ferry's use of the bench and switching D back and forth during the game. Smart moves. Just maybe this team might surprise a couple of A-10 teams. I hope so.  Go Dukes.   

WEB wrote:

NapaDuke wrote:

Don't want to get too over optimistic just yet. We beat a bunch of cream-puffs to this point and fell-apart against the only 2 quality teams.  The Dukes are strong on the open 3's and young and weak inside. If I were Ferry, I'd start to center the next couple of games inside to get the feeling of fighting for some ground when we get to conf. play. Still, our senior leaders are on the perimeter, and will be attacked more in conf. play making   the Dukes play the inside game to win.  SCSU left the 3 wide open just too many times, but I must agree, the Dukes look way better than I thought they would be.  I like Ferry's use of the bench and switching D back and forth during the game. Smart moves. Just maybe this team might surprise a couple of A-10 teams. I hope so.  Go Dukes.   

Expected RPIs:

Western Kentucky - 114
Milwaukee - 128
Pepperdine - 137

I don't worry too much about expected RPI, as that is just an educated guess. Current RPI are as follows.

Milwaukee - 78,
WKU - 129
Pepperdine - 124
Penn St. - 119

Not murderers row, but hardly creampuffs. These are schools that are close to the Dukes in quality, and we won 3 of 4 vs them, none of which were at Palumbo.
 

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Nice win by the Dukes. It is especially promising that they Dukes won this one and the SFU game with a much improved defensive performance - you're not going to lose many games under Jim Ferry if the Dukes hold their opponent to under 70 points.  The way the Dukes locked down on defense in the second half was very encouraging.

As a point of comparison (Pomeroy again ), here are the defensive efficiency numbers from the last 3 games (D-1 Average is 102.1):
UMBC - 94.1
SFU - 92.7
SC St. - 97.0

Here are some selected non-conference losses from last year:
NJIT - 115.9
Robert Morris - 108.9
Saint Francis - 106.9
UMES - 124.5

You can see the pattern. Looking at the conference games last year, the Dukes were 5-1 in conference when posting a defensive efficiency of less than 102.0 - the D-1 Average (wins against George Mason, Saint Louis twice, Dayton and Fordham; and a one point loss to Rhode Island).  If the Dukes continue to progress on defense, we could have a magical year.  Go Dukes!

 

Great post. Thanks for adding numbers to what many have been seeing. I've always thought that it is easier to stop a three-pointer than to hit a three pointer, so it has been routinely dispiriting to watch other teams come alive from long range against us in recent years. While these numbers are not "three-specific," there have been less open looks and less scrambling back to an open penetrator  from short range. These numbers are encouraging, and I'd like to follow them against stiffer competition.

I also like to see the team switching defenses, as it seems to leave something unexpected for the opponents. Certainly threw off SCS. If we're not the best man defense and we're not the best zone defense, switching things up at least throws a kink for the other team. Of course, I'd like us to become the best man and zone defenders that we can be, but at least the predictableness of the defense is lessened.

rosceaux wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Nice win by the Dukes. It is especially promising that they Dukes won this one and the SFU game with a much improved defensive performance - you're not going to lose many games under Jim Ferry if the Dukes hold their opponent to under 70 points.  The way the Dukes locked down on defense in the second half was very encouraging.

As a point of comparison (Pomeroy again ), here are the defensive efficiency numbers from the last 3 games (D-1 Average is 102.1):
UMBC - 94.1
SFU - 92.7
SC St. - 97.0

Here are some selected non-conference losses from last year:
NJIT - 115.9
Robert Morris - 108.9
Saint Francis - 106.9
UMES - 124.5

You can see the pattern. Looking at the conference games last year, the Dukes were 5-1 in conference when posting a defensive efficiency of less than 102.0 - the D-1 Average (wins against George Mason, Saint Louis twice, Dayton and Fordham; and a one point loss to Rhode Island).  If the Dukes continue to progress on defense, we could have a magical year.  Go Dukes!

 

Great post. Thanks for adding numbers to what many have been seeing. I've always thought that it is easier to stop a three-pointer than to hit a three pointer, so it has been routinely dispiriting to watch other teams come alive from long range against us in recent years. While these numbers are not "three-specific," there have been less open looks and less scrambling back to an open penetrator  from short range. These numbers are encouraging, and I'd like to follow them against stiffer competition.

I also like to see the team switching defenses, as it seems to leave something unexpected for the opponents. Certainly threw off SCS. If we're not the best man defense and we're not the best zone defense, switching things up at least throws a kink for the other team. Of course, I'd like us to become the best man and zone defenders that we can be, but at least the predictableness of the defense is lessened.

rosceaux, thanks.  Unfortunately, your eyeballs are seeing the major defensive weakness in the Dukes - defending the 3 point shot.  Currently, opponents are making 42.6% of their 3 pointers, placing us as the 10th worst team in the country ranked at #342.  Conversely, our 2 point FG defense is really good; opponents are only making 41.4% of their 2 point shots, placing us #22 in the country.  Yes, teams are shooting a better percentage from 3's than 2's.  I believe that we are the only team in the country that holds that distinction.