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(thought this deserved its own thread) Last edited by Tejas_Duke (1/17/2016 12:19 pm) (thought this deserved its own thread) We win those games that are not easy if our defense makes the other team not play their game and our offense beats them inside. Top teams play their worst games when they are taken out of their game. But on the other hand, we let them play their game and it's going to go their way. This Bonnie game was a good example of the Dukes, to some extent, playing a balanced offense and decent defense and maintaining a lead for most of the game. I think if they come out and play like this, they can get 18 plus wins. This was a Big Win! Updated Probabilities after the LaSalle game Update after the St. Louis game: Last edited by Tejas_Duke (2/02/2016 8:23 pm) Update after the St. Louis game: Last edited by NapaDuke (2/04/2016 12:08 am) Update after the Davidson game. Well, that was one that we really, really need to reach the rarified air of 21 or 22 wins, and that loss hurt. A very winnable game at home, bad officiating and some really bad stretches turned a "could win" into a loss. Oh well, time to move on. After the Dayton game. Damn it, so close! Amazing how two games against Dayton could very well be the entire season, the difference between lapping at the outskirts of the bubble or "Gee I hope we can get into the CBI." Datyon tried their best to hand us the game in Pittsburgh and we all know what happened last week. Oh well, Presented without comment or tears This is starting to get old: Once again, without tears and without comment Last edited by Tejas_Duke (2/18/2016 10:44 am) This is starting to get old: Once again, without tears and without comment You really should put 15 wins on your list. I think the odds of them not winning another game is small, but right now it's possible. Trying to hold out one sliver of hope Busy with my wife's big birthday celebration all day. forgot there was even a game on: Just saw the results and the Complaining on the board. Oh well. Last edited by Tejas_Duke (2/21/2016 12:32 pm) 15 Wins 25% Not even bothering to wait for the foregone conclusion of the Richmond game: Thankfully I was busy with my family and didn't even try to watch the game, but I just checked my ESPN app on my phone and see that they lost again to Richmond..........what, are we surprised!! They fell apart at Dayton and just kept going downhill. This staff should give back their paychecks, they really shi... the bed all the way around with this team, its composition/talent level, the rotation, the player development, coaching adjustments, execution and mental resiliency - you name it!! Harper are you watching this fiasco!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can't wait to see Teflon Ferry's post-game. I see Fordham beat Davidson. My prediction was 15 wins. If Duquesne loses Wednesday (hopefully not), that will be 15 for the regular season. Anyone want to predict the post-season??? Of course if Duquesne wins Wednesday, and we know they probably will...The 16 wins will be based on the OOC cupcakes they played. Last edited by FAM (2/28/2016 1:23 am) I see Fordham beat Davidson. My prediction was 15 wins. If Duquesne loses Wednesday (hopefully not), that will be 15 for the regular season. Anyone want to predict the post-season??? Of course if Duquesne wins Wednesday, and we know they probably will...The 16 wins will be based on the OOC cupcakes they played. C'mon FAM. It's a young team after all. They need time to grow. (dripping with sarcasm) As of this afternoon, the Dukes are in a 3 way tie for 10th place with UMass and SLU. The Dukes own the tiebreaker at this time due to their 2-1 record vs these teams. Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (2/28/2016 4:32 pm)
CONGRATULATIONS COACH DRU JOYCE III
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Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Odds from here on out: Regular Season only
13 wins: Offering a million to one against 
14 wins: Beat two bottom feeders and that’s it.
15 wins: Wow, they could actually achieve this before February, just beat three bottom feeders, La Salle, Mason and St. Louis.
16 wins: Add a Fordham or U Mass win.
17 wins: Steal one against Rhode Island, Richmond or Davidson (rematch, this time at home)
18 wins: The air is starting to get a bit thin now: Upset GW here, or VCU, Dayton, St. Joe’s or the Bonnies on the road.
19 wins: Will need two of those big upsets and avoid any hiccups against lesser opponents, and past history and law of averages, plus the usual Duquesne crappy karma makes this unlikely in my view.
20 wins: No way around it we will have to win three road games against very good or excellent teams. There is always hope.
So with that in mind: I offer:
Worst Case Scenario: 15 Wins (5%): Three wins against three bottom feeders: I believe this scenario would have to involve some seriously awful circumstances: Mason and Coulter both getting injured, suspensions, coaching staff implodes, academic scandal etc.
16 to 17 wins: 50%: 6 or 7 league wins, pulling no big upsets. Just winning 5 home games puts them in this ball park.
18 to 19 wins: 40%: Still cautious here. This is Duquesne hoops after all.
20 Wins: (5%) A lot of things would have to go right here.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Tejas_Duke wrote:
Odds from here on out: Regular Season only
13 wins: Offering a million to one against
14 wins: Beat two bottom feeders and that’s it.
15 wins: Wow, they could actually achieve this before February, just beat three bottom feeders, La Salle, Mason and St. Louis.
16 wins: Add a Fordham or U Mass win.
17 wins: Steal one against Rhode Island, Richmond or Davidson (rematch, this time at home)
18 wins: The air is starting to get a bit thin now: Upset GW here, or VCU, Dayton, St. Joe’s or the Bonnies on the road.
19 wins: Will need two of those big upsets and avoid any hiccups against lesser opponents, and past history and law of averages, plus the usual Duquesne crappy karma makes this unlikely in my view.
20 wins: No way around it we will have to win three road games against very good or excellent teams. There is always hope.
So with that in mind: I offer:
Worst Case Scenario: 15 Wins (5%): Three wins against three bottom feeders: I believe this scenario would have to involve some seriously awful circumstances: Mason and Coulter both getting injured, suspensions, coaching staff implodes, academic scandal etc.
16 to 17 wins: 50%: 6 or 7 league wins, pulling no big upsets. Just winning 5 home games puts them in this ball park.
18 to 19 wins: 40%: Still cautious here. This is Duquesne hoops after all.
20 Wins: (5%) A lot of things would have to go right here.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Worst Case Scenario: 15 Wins (1%): Not taking this completely off the board. I can still forsee a sitatuation where Duquesne becomes Duquesne and they go 1-9 down the stretch. They should be able to win at least two from Fordham, U Mass, Mason, and slightly better Rhode Island, Richmond and improving St. Louis.
16 wins (10%): Only win the two mentioned above and stumble down the stretch, disappointing and, in my view highly unlikely.
17 to 18 wins (60%): Take 4 of 6 above or split and steal a win at Bonnies or St. Joes. Much as it pains me I think this is the most likely outcome at this point. Dukes have not shown they can win on the road.
19 wins (20%); Dominate the winnable games from above. 5-1 puts them at 19, without even any upsets. I can't help but think they will have a bad "oops" with one of the bottom feeders and only win 4, plus an upset
20 Wins: (10%) I could very well see a magic number of six with winnable games and one or two upsets. I can see it, but don't have much confidence in it, yet.
21+ Wins (4%): 7 and 3 is a tall order for this improving team, but I like the fact that they have slightly better odds to do this than only win one more all season.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Personal Note that may affect my judgment: One thing that made me skeptical about this season was the fact that the Dukes had not come from behind in any win. Their losses this year were where they fell behind early and never made a real run, (Pitt, Pepperdine, GW, VCU, Georgia Tech) or just stunk up the joint: Dayton. This team never fought back from a big deficit, until the St. Louis game on the road. Down 19-7, they didn't panic or fold their cards early and came back to lead at halftime.
I consider that a very positive sign.
16 Wins (Off the board): Duquesne will win at least two games.
17 Wins (10%): Beating 2 of 3 of Fordham, UMASS or Richmond at home reaches this.
18-19 wins (65%): Win the three at home and upset GW or Davidson at home and here we are.
20 Wins (15%): Run the table at home (let's remember Dayton isn't coming here again, let alone Duke or North Carolina ) or four of five here and sneak a road win against Rhode Island or the Bonnies and this comes true.
21 Wins (7%): Need 2 road upsets for this to happen.
22 Wins (3%): Only lose 2 out of four road games to Dayton, Rhode Island, Bonnies and St. Joe's? Long, long shot, but hey this is a magical season and I think it's on the board. Stranger things have happened! So 22 wins is now on the board.
Let's Go Dukes!
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Tejas_Duke wrote:
Personal Note that may affect my judgment: One thing that made me skeptical about this season was the fact that the Dukes had not come from behind in any win. Their losses this year were where they fell behind early and never made a real run, (Pitt, Pepperdine, GW, VCU, Georgia Tech) or just stunk up the joint: Dayton. This team never fought back from a big deficit, until the St. Louis game on the road. Down 19-7, they didn't panic or fold their cards early and came back to lead at halftime.
I consider that a very positive sign.
16 Wins (Off the board): Duquesne will win at least two games.
17 Wins (10%): Beating 2 of 3 of Fordham, UMASS or Richmond at home reaches this.
18-19 wins (65%): Win the three at home and upset GW or Davidson at home and here we are.
20 Wins (15%): Run the table at home (let's remember Dayton isn't coming here again, let alone Duke or North Carolina ) or four of five here and sneak a road win against Rhode Island or the Bonnies and this comes true.
21 Wins (7%): Need 2 road upsets for this to happen.
22 Wins (3%): Only lose 2 out of four road games to Dayton, Rhode Island, Bonnies and St. Joe's? Long, long shot, but hey this is a magical season and I think it's on the board. Stranger things have happened! So 22 wins is now on the board.
Let's Go Dukes!
They are a solid 19 wins, maybe 20 or 21, this depends on Lewis. He is slowly taking control of the paint. And he is doing so with some authority !! This guy can play some major center. On Real-Time RPI for PITT they list the Duquesne win as a quality win ?? It means, by most standards this Dukes team is something you were lucky to get by? I hope the BIGS on this team start to get it. They are it ! Most teams, the rest of the schedule, are set to address the Bigs on this team. How the Bigs on this team dominate from here on out will determine this year, and to a greater extent, next year. My view, No one can stop these Bigs in the paint this year, and definitely next year !
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
16 Wins (Off the board): Duquesne will win at least two games.
17 Wins (15%): Beating 2 of 3 of Fordham, UMASS or Richmond at home reaches this.
18-19 wins (70%): Win the "winnable three at home, upset GW here or the Bonnies or Rhode Island on the road.
20 Wins (10%): Really needed that Davidson game for anything from here on out. GW and one road win gets it done
21 Wins (4%): Run the table at home and two road upsets. Not very likely at this point.
22 Wins (1%): Need a nearly flawless finish from here on out.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
16 Wins (Off the board): Duquesne will win at least two games. A bad loss to U Mass this weekend will sadly put this number back into play,
17 Wins (25%): Beating 2 of 3 of Fordham, UMASS or Richmond at home reaches this.
18-19 wins (65%): Win the "winnable three at home, upset GW here or the Bonnies or Rhode Island on the road.
20 Wins (6%): Really needed that Davidson game for anything from here on out. GW and one road win gets it done
21 Wins (3%): Run the table at home and two road upsets. Not very likely at this point.
22 Wins (1%): Still can't take this off the board. Stranger things have happened.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
16 Wins (5%),
17-18 Wins (55%):
18-19 wins (35%):
20 Wins (4%):
21 Wins (1%):
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
16 Wins (50%),
17-18 Wins (45%):
19 wins (4%):
20 Wins (1%):
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Tejas_Duke wrote:
16 Wins (50%),
17-18 Wins (45%):
18-19 wins (4%):
20 Wins (1%):
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
15 Wins (back on the board): 5%
16 Wins (60%)
17 Wins (35%
18 Wins (4%)
19 Wins (1%)
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
16 Wins 70%
17 Wins 5%
18 Wins off the board
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
15 Wins 90%
16 Wins 10%
17 Wins off the board
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
I would like to say wait till next year, but with their two leading guards gone, I will say 10 for Ferry's 5th season, with many excuses that his leading scorers are gone and it is so difficult to make up those points. Hmm, who is in charge of recruiting folks to make up those points???
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
FAM wrote:
I would like to say wait till next year, but with their two leading guards gone, I will say 10 for Ferry's 5th season, with many excuses that his leading scorers are gone and it is so difficult to make up those points. Hmm, who is in charge of recruiting folks to make up those points???
WE ARE CREEPING UP TO THE SECOND FLOOR....
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Re: Tejas Duke's odds and predictions for the rest of the season.
Not 100% sure on this....
Dukes win the next 2, they finish 9th through 11th. Lose the next 2 (or just lose to Fordham), they finish 10th through 13th depending on other bottom-feeder results.
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