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I know a couple members dream about a path to the NCAA tournament but what is the realistic probability that our dukes get a bid to the NIT this year? (Don't want to jinx anything) I know a couple members dream about a path to the NCAA tournament but what is the realistic probability that our dukes get a bid to the NIT this year? (Don't want to jinx anything) None of us are betting the mortgage on that happening. In fact check my odds page, I give the chance that they will end the regular season with a record that gets them even peripherally on the bubble as about 4%. The Dukes RPI is currently floating around 100. Historically, an A-10 team needs to be around 80-85 to snag one of the last spots in the NIT. I would guess that the Dukes would need to finish 6-4 in conference and then win one in the tourney to move the RPI needle. Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/28/2016 9:02 am) The Dukes RPI is currently floating around 100. Historically, an A-10 team needs to be around 80-85 to snag one of the last spots in the NIT. I would guess that the Dukes would need to finish 6-4 in conference and then win one in the tourney to move the RPI needle. Yes, almost by definition in order to go 6-4 they would have to knock off a Dayton, a St. Joes, or a VCU, which would move the needle. The Dukes RPI is currently floating around 100. Historically, an A-10 team needs to be around 80-85 to snag one of the last spots in the NIT. I would guess that the Dukes would need to finish 6-4 in conference and then win one in the tourney to move the RPI needle. Yes, almost by definition in order to go 6-4 they would have to knock off a Dayton, a St. Joes, or a VCU, which would move the needle. The year we were a #7 seed, Washington State was #92 in the RPI and got in. The Dukes barely got in at 21-12 in 2009, out of a weaker A10 than this year. I'm thinking 20 wins ought to be enough. They would likely need to finish 19-12, and then go 1-1 in Brooklyn to have a chance. Win 20 before Brooklyn, and then go 1-1, and it would be a lock. Looking at the schedule, winning every home game except GW, and winning at SLU, would give them 19 wins. To get that 20th win in the regular season, they would likely need to either beat GW at Palumbo, or knock off either URI, or Bona on the road. I can't see them winning at Dayton, or St. Joe's. If you really want to dream, to actually get on the real bubble, they would need to win all their home games, plus beat both Bona, and URI on the road, and maybe upset either SJU, or Dayton on the road. Then they'd need to win 2 games in Brooklyn. That would really put them in the mix for an at large bid at 25-9
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Seriously
Roll Dukes Roll
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Re: Seriously
currentstudent wrote:
Stranger things have happened. Florida Gulf Coast anyone? 10-18 Fairfield winning their tourney and then coming within 20 seconds of knocking off #1 North Carolina in the Big Dance?
Teams have gelled and played better during the run up to March than they had performed earlier in the season.
Why Not? Just enjoy the Ride!
Vicimus Atlanticum decem
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Re: Seriously
Also, the number of NIT at large spots depends on how many lower conferences reg season champs lose in their conference tourneys. The reg season winners get an auto bid.
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Re: Seriously
PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Also, the number of NIT at large spots depends on how many lower conferences reg season champs lose in their conference tourneys. The reg season winners get an auto bid.
Vicimus Atlanticum decem
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Re: Seriously
Tejas_Duke wrote:PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Also, the number of NIT at large spots depends on how many lower conferences reg season champs lose in their conference tourneys. The reg season winners get an auto bid.
Are you projecting a VCU matchup in the Brooklyn? If we beat them in Brooklyn, then I don't care about the NIT...that'll mean we are doing something serious.
If you beat SLU, Umass, Fordham, Richmond, Davidson and GW at home, I think you have a good shot. That's the avenue I'd be looking for. URI is beatable as Hurley has vastly underachieved. @Bona, @UD and @SJU will be next to impossible to win, but they won't kill your RPI either. A win in any one of those gives you a huge road win bump.
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