If the team can shake off recent setbacks and come out strong, this can be a big win, but really need to focus on GW and be the aggressor, force some turnovers and hit the boards.

Last edited by levon1975 (2/17/2016 11:13 am)

Recently, Matt Gajtka of DK Pittsburgh Sports had an interesting article on advanced stats in basketball (subscription required).
http://dkpittsburghsports.com/2016/02/04/matts-stats-intro-to-advanced-hoops/
Statisticians, primarily using the information tabulated by Ken Pomeroy, are trying to come up with a metric in college basketball that is similar to the baseball metric, Wins Above Replacement (WAR), that is now widely quoted and accepted. One that is available is Value Add Basketball.
http://www.valueaddbasketball.com

They use a player's offensive value (higher number the better) and the player's defensive value (lower number the better) to come up with a Total Points Per Game value.  I pulled the Dukes stats out of their latest rankings (below).  As you can see, it's not a surprise that Mason is leading the Dukes and is ranked 99th in the country adding 5.98 points per game. It's also not a surprise that Darius and TySean are our best defensive players.  But a couple things jumped out at me - losing Jeremiah hurt us more offensively than defensively (James has some good defensive numbers) and how little offense we are getting from just about everyone not named Mason or Colter.

Not saying that Value Add Basketball is the gold standard by any means, but it is something to take a look at in measuring a player's value to their team.

Though Games of February 12th
Nat'l Rank  Player                 Team       Conf  Ht  Class OffR   DefR  Total Pts/Gm Value
99    Mason, Micah 22        Duquesne    A10  6-02 4 Sr  8.28   0.09    5.98
656   Colter, Derrick 1      Duquesne    A10  5-11 4 Sr  4.22   0.10    3.01
1096  Gill, LG 33            Duquesne    A10  6-08 3 Jr  2.83  -0.14    1.96
1295  Powell, TySean 5       Duquesne    A10  6-08 2 So  1.17  -1.16    1.53
1366  Jones, Jeremiah 23     Duquesne    A10  6-04 4 Sr  2.05   0.10    1.42
1499  James, Eric 2          Duquesne    A10  6-05 2 So  0.81  -1.06    1.23
1622  Lewis, Darius 0        Duquesne    A10  6-11 3 Jr  0.44  -1.13    1.04
1982  Jackson, Mar'Qywell 13 Duquesne    A10  6-05 1 Fr  0.89   0.01    0.59
2366  Sanders, Nakye 20      Duquesne    A10  6-08 1 Fr  0.00  -0.44    0.29
2808  Robinson, Jordan 55    Duquesne    A10  6-08 2 So  0.06  -0.10    0.10
9999  Steel, Josh 30         Duquesne    A10  6-04 1 Fr  0.00   0.31    0.00
9999  Castro, Rene 4         Duquesne    A10  6-02 2 So  0.00   1.42    0.00

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (2/17/2016 11:28 am)

Out of the starting 5, Lewis is lower than he "should" be to help.

Phoenix thanks for the research. 

I have been looking at the link below that gives national stats, and Duquesne is a hard team to figure out by looking only at the stats.  For example DU is ranked #1 in the nation in Defensive Rebounds, but only #220 in offensive rebounds.  DU is #116 in assists to turnovers but #305 in turnover margin.  DU is ranked 57th in total Field-Goal % Defense but a horrible 340th in 3 point % defense.  Of course when you get behind the stats and watch them play it becomes more understandable.  The DU defense is designed to stop the opponents inside game with a sagging defense with many times 4 to 5 guys trying to stop the dribble penetration leaving the three point shooters completely uncovered.  The DU offense is designed principally around shooting the three point shot with many times 4 guys on the perimeter shooting or setting screens for threes (DU ranks #33 in three point shots attempted,  #26 in 3 point goals, and #113 in 3 point shooting percentage) which explains the low offensive rebounding.  Moreover, the fast pace on offense leads to more turnovers. 

Most of this is not news to DU fans.  Call me Captain Obvious, but if the Dukes are going to make a run they will need to: 1) improve three point defense, 2) play better without fouling (DU is ranked #224 in fewest fouls averaging 20 PF/G), and 3) value the ball better and limit mostly unforced turnovers all of which have been our Achilles Heel.  We can score enough to win. Duquesne is ranked #31 in Scoring Offense and 86th in overall FG%.  Of course this stats are full game stats, and do not explain the late game variance describe by Craig Meyers in his article today.  So I guess there is a fourth item which would be to have our coaches to figure out a rotation and manage the bench and time outs to provide good enough relief minutes so our starters have enough energy to maintain the defensive effort and withstand the late game runs.

 http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152

In another tread today dealing with Castro I asked the question about how much do the Duke's scrimmage. Well if you read Craig Meyer's column today you get the answer, probably not a whole lot. I'm not sure what you can accomplish without it or how your players improve. I take that away from the fact he doesn't think playing a full game is a burden and he mentions monitoring their practice time??????

One more thing about our offense and a 3rd scorer. When the ball is moving so are your players, when the ball is stagnant so are your players. We are so dependent on our guards and the 3 that the ability to work in a 3rd scorer is really limited. Micah is our only guard IMO capable of really running the pick and roll which other than offensive rebounds is the way for our bigs to score.

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

CLK, that is funny. It is frustrating, because I do think there is a fairly high level of talent on this team. I could be wrong, but I do think that Jim Ferry's offense thrives when he has a top notch SF or PF leading the offense.  At LIU during his NCAA appearances, he had Boyd and Olasewere as his scoring forwards, with not much reliance on the 3 point shot. His best offensive team at Duquesne revolved around Ovie Soko.  He doesn't have anything close to that on this squad at this time.

This team is lacking a real point. Ferry better not be here next year.  Two shooting guards , no point guard. Colter at the 48 second point, no offense, just Coulter coast to coast, to a held ball , possession GW??  Now it's over!! No point play at all.  Mason had a great game? Really?  big points, no win?  Coulter 15 points,???? no win?  Ferry can coach the next 10 years here, no winning season, but some great individual stats??  This is not the next level, in fact, a losing record coming real soon. 

Ring...Ring...Ring

And the alarm clock is playing Sonny and Cher again.

Three games in a row in which a double digit lead is PISSED AWAY almost immediately!  Bad shot selection, stupid passes, turnovers, poor clock management and just plain sloppy and lazy play.

As soon as they went up by 12 I said, "Game over! 

I see why no students or fans come to the games, was there 800 at the Palumbo?

This team doesn't seem to know how to finish, I think this year is over like so many in the past four.

Sadly.

CLK wrote:

Napa Ferry will be here next year. DU does not have the cash to buy out the remaining 3 or 4 years of his contract.  

The hard part is it is the same old script...unforced turnovers, rushed shots, stupid fouls, Mason & Colter playing 40 minutes and poor coaching. Too disgusted as this is another one we played well and folder in the final minutes.  

No we did not fold in the last minutes we folded when we pissed away a double digit lead (again) in about 2:30 in the middle of the second half! As soon as GW got that lead down to less than five the game was over!
 

BOY This is DEPRESSING -  IF we keep Ferry (and that seems to be the prevalent idea) For all of next year we'll be hearing something like "Our Inexperience in the Back Court Killed Us"  IF/WHEN  the new President and A.D. want "their guy" in there - How long does it take for him to get "his kind of players in there" (not to mention no one in their right mind would take the job -  Best we might be able to do is Danny Nee, &  Jarrett Durham "grooming" Brad Midgely (former DU player now coaching at a local HS) as the successor.

Notice CLK is up to 1,897 posts - DOUBT if we'll be respectable by the time he hits 2,000 -  Wonder if he will have the patience to approach 3,000??????

Throw the money at the ladies' program and anything left over use it to fund that NEW Women;s Bowling team we're gonna have!!!!

Or change the name of the University to Oral Roberts and EXPECT A MIRACLE (which used to be their slogan.

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

CLK, in another thread, you were asking for some stats. I decided to have a little fun with this and put together a stats based offensive scouting report for the opposition (with some of my own eyeball assessments).

Offensive Game Plan versus Duquesne (Pomeroy stats based – 351 teams)

Duquesne is an average defensive team, currently ranked #166 in the country in defensive efficiency.  They play man to man almost exclusively; but will sag and help inside giving this somewhat of a zone defense feel.  Their interior defense is outstanding, 8th in the country in 2 point shot percentage (41.3%).  But their 3 point defense is abysmal, ranking 343rd in the country (41.3%).

Duquesne does not pressure the ball and they rarely press.  They also are not aggressive in their ball denial.  They rank #311 in Turnover % and #329 in Steal Percentage.  Their guards allow ball penetration and don’t often foul, but the Dukes do a good job of help defense.  Their center is big and their forwards are athletic, resulting in blocked shots (#120 in blocked shot percentage).  But their big guys will foul, providing opportunities to get to the free throw line (they are #151 in FTA/FGA).

We will be able to set up and run our offense against them.  Opponents are assisting on 67.4% of FG made (ranking Duquesne #350), so we need to move the ball.  Here are tonight’s points of emphasis:

1.  Be Patient on Offense – Duquesne likes a fast pace; make them work on defense.
2.  Make the Extra Pass – They over-help on the inside, causing them to chase when the ball come outside.  Extra passes will lead to wide open shots, especially 3 pointers.
3.  Don’t force what isn’t there inside – be aggressive when you have the edge on your man, but don’t force and get trapped in the help defense.
4.  Follow your missed 3 point shots – Duquesne’s guards like to get down the court, so they don’t box out or rebound very well (their guards on get about 27% of the defensive rebounds, ranking them #236 in the country).
5.  Look for mismatches – Dukes will often switch on high ball screens, leaving a short guard against our big men in the post.  Once the entry pass is made, either go up strong or anticipate the double team and pass to the open man.
 

Right on the money. 

heelsdukesfan wrote:

gotta love this quote from ferry:   “It’s a program that hasn’t won in years. We’re trying to build it to win…"
he is right, we havent had a winning season in 3 years, and if not careful, might be 4 in  a row. all under his watch.
 

Heels here comes the excuses.  I have provided the link to your quote below.  Some of Ferry's comments makes me shake my head like he can't help them figure things out because the play is "being away from our bench, where we can be aggressive with our voices ."  GW started their junk defense early in the second half. The reality is that Jim Ferry is an awful game day coach.  I know some folks don't like hearing that but it is the truth.  Moreover, how in his 4th year is his bench so weak that he has to play his guards 40 minutes. 

http://blogs.post-gazette.com/sports/college/dukes-dispatches/46121-semi-rapid-reaction-george-washington-81-duquesne-74