FanODukes wrote:

ElDuque wrote:

Steve, trust me on this one. He is not one of the better point guards in the league. He had problems bringing the ball up the court against just about everyone. Penn State shut him down with a couple two-guards who he should have had a quickness advantage over. Game after Winters went off for 20-something, Coulter never gave him the ball.

Aaron Jackson, TJ. Talley, Evans, Reggie Jackson, Kojo Mensah, Martin Osimani, Bryant McAllister, Jason Duty -- all better point guards. Tom Cvitkovic was better. Coulter accumulated a lot of numbers this year because he was virtually the only person handling the ball. Talent-wise, I saw nothing that impressed me.

We're in trouble if he's a four year starter.

 
Totally wrong...

Trying to surmise the upside of a point guard (especially a freshman) with the lack of talent in the teams' surrounding cast is impossible.  For the skills of a point guard to be seen and appreciated, he absolutely has to have someone to pass to, someone who is a threat from the paint and/or the perimeter, and (in general), other players who can take the pressure ball defender off of the PG at times. 

No need to say it but we had none of this.  Dont' you get it?  A point guard relies very much on the talent of the other 4 players on the court...look at this guy Comer at FGCU.  He's good, but he's certainly not a giant, but his team is athletic and talented.  If he were couting on Abele to throw down the "alley-oops" he was lofting up there; forget it.

At times, when Q, or somebody else was hitting shots, or the few moments when Andre was doing anything in the paint, Colter looked like an extremely good point guard.

Mark my words he'll end up with over 1,500 points and 600 assists for his Dukes career. 


 

 
Yes, I do get it. I pointed out the example of Winters having a career game one night and then he got three shots in the very next game. I also pointed out that Sean Johnson was on this team. Both of those guys look to me like they could score.

I'm not looking for a PG to be a miracle worker. I just want a solid PG. He has trouble bringing the ball up the court against any kind of pressure.

I'd rather see that improve than see him score 1,000 points. Otherwise, you have the second coming of Courtney Wallace.

president wrote:

ElDuque wrote:

So who's being kicked out? to use Steve's favorite expression. We had three slots with two seniors and PJ Torres leaving. Now we have two commits and a LOI and possibly 1-2 more on the way. Come on, Mr. Blue Sky and Steve, if you want us to like you guys, start sharing a little information. My guess is that Datt and Pantophlet and being told that there's no room for them. Maybe Martin too. Jones and Abele are going to be seniors. Martins has already sat out part of a year and transferred once, and I think despite Ferry b*tchin' about him in the press and sitting him down a couple games, he realizes 7-footers don't grow on trees and in fact come in handy against some teams.

 
Would hate to see Panto leave the program. I may be stubborn here but I do believe that if he could harness all of his ability, we would have a nice player there who could fill a number of roles, off the bench or whatever. One of our best 3 pt shooters along with Q.

Panto is supposed to be a good 3 point shooter, but he has yet to even come close to showing it.

Steve, all that analysis is nice, but it flunks the eye test. And as I said earlier, we're really beating a dead horse. If Colter is here for four years, regardless of the role he plays, my wish for him is to grow and develop as a player and be part of teams that go to the postseason, more precisely, the NCAA Tournament.

But ask yourself Steve: If you surround Colter with "next level" players, is he a PG who can make your team an NCAA Tournament team? If you, or more importantly Jimmy Ferry, believes that, then stick with him and hope that Ridenour can be a more competent backup than Marvin Binney. If you don't think Colter can get you to that next level, or more importantly if Jimmy Ferry doesn't believe that, then you (he) should upgrade the position.


 

Steve, we all hope you're right. Peace.

steve19981 wrote:

Alright so I calculated some offensive efficiency numbers for the league's PGs to see where Colter stacks up. My equation was a modification of the NBA Efficiency numbers to remove defense and adjust for playing time.  (PTS+ A + OR- FG Missed - FT Missed *.5 - TO) / (MIN/30). Colter ranked 11th of the A-10's 16 PG's. Of course there were some hybrids out there for teams w/out a true point, Wyatt, Clarke, and Mosley, but included them anyway.

The interesting thing was that the non tradtional PG's were all the most efficient. Even if they turned the ball over at a high rate or had a sub 1.5 A/TO ratio, they seemed to fair better than the Darius Theus' of the world

Colter was 2nd among the 6 freshman and sophomore PG's trailing only Christon. Colter faired better than other league players as freshman like Duren and Chaz Williams. Compared to some of the other Dukes mentioned in this thread, Colter was more efficient than Duty and Talley, but TJ was some way ahead.

What I drew from this is that Colter is really good for a freshman, and is strong compared to some other former Dukes. However, he is probably not as efficient as I've made him out to be currently nor does he rate as highly in the league currently. However, I also drew that he's  not as inefficient as ED has suggested.

Nice work steve with the stats and research on this...stats are way more important than "the eye test" as they tell a story of what a player needs to work on to improve.   Clearly DC needs to be more efficient.   I see both arguements....if he does not improve his assist to T/O ratio and learn how to manage a game I don't care how many pts the kid scores he'll be part of a losing team as a 4 year starter!   I believe the player has the talent to improve and could be an above average point guard....should be interesting to see next year if he manages the game with some better talent around him.
 

G-Duke wrote:

Nice work steve with the stats and research on this...stats are way more important than "the eye test" as they tell a story of what a player needs to work on to improve.   Clearly DC needs to be more efficient.   I see both arguements....if he does not improve his assist to T/O ratio and learn how to manage a game I don't care how many pts the kid scores he'll be part of a losing team as a 4 year starter!   I believe the player has the talent to improve and could be an above average point guard....should be interesting to see next year if he manages the game with some better talent around him.
 

Welllllll, there is still some value to the eyeball test. Really, the eyeball test is the only thing I care about on defense. On offense, the stats are a little more reflective of ability. For example, you can be a good defender and not generate a lot of blocks or steals. On the other side of the floor, there is a good chance that the guy who leads your team in scoring and assists is probably the most talented. For example, Mike Talley and Evans were better all around defenders than TJ based on my eyeball. TJ was a freak when it came to jumping into passing lanes, so he looked better on paper. The immesuarble stuff like keeping a guy in front of you, staying with your man denying a player the ball which IMO is more important, goes to Talley. There is immeasurable stuff on offense too, but that's not what we're talking about in this conversation.

Of course, removing the eyeball tests removes objectivity. I  personally like a PG who will take control of a game  and be a catalyst where ED likes a more traditional PG based on the opinions he's expressed in this conversation. It only stands to reason I thought Colter was more effective than he actually was and ED thought he was less effective than he actually is. IMO, it all came back to personal taste and our own biases.

And it won't take much for Colter to be more effective. If he shoots 41% from the floor, 75% from the line (over the entire season) and reduces his TO's to 3.2 per game from 3.6 per game, he'll be in TJ's offensive efficiency range.

Last edited by steve19981 (3/29/2013 4:55 pm)

C'mon, that's just evil! Who were players A through H?

ElDuque wrote:

Example 1: The departing senior was Brian Anselmino. The incoming freshman was Derrick Alston.

Example 2: Aly Samabaly is the guy who started games and had a higher average. The other guy was Rick Suder.

Example 3: Player A was Scott Grote, Player B was Devario Hudson. The third guy was Damian Saunders.

Example 4: Player D was TJ. Player E was Norm Nixon. Notice they had comparable stats. Player F was Eric Evans. Player G was Clayton Adams. The guy with the worst stats, player H, was Aaron Jackson.

Think back to the first time you saw each of these players.

Eyeball test. It works.
 

Just looking at stats doesn't always work. A guy may have less numbers as a freshman because he has someone in front of him. What impressed me about AJax was a frosh was his assist to turnover numbers on a horrid team. No one else on the board looked at that. That's why I was a big booster of his, when the rest of you were clamouring for Kojo, and Eric Evans. Assists to turnovers is huge for anyone playing the point.

Also, I think Hudson made a huge mistake by not staying. I know Ron basically ran him off, but he could have fought to stay. Ron intitially tried to run AJax off, but was impressed by Aaron's "no f****ing way I'm leaving" attitude. Hudson would have thrived in Ron's system, and a small forward who could score was what was really missing from Ron's second team after Mitchell, and Grote left.

duq81 wrote:

ElDuque wrote:

Example 1: The departing senior was Brian Anselmino. The incoming freshman was Derrick Alston.

Example 2: Aly Samabaly is the guy who started games and had a higher average. The other guy was Rick Suder.

Example 3: Player A was Scott Grote, Player B was Devario Hudson. The third guy was Damian Saunders.

Example 4: Player D was TJ. Player E was Norm Nixon. Notice they had comparable stats. Player F was Eric Evans. Player G was Clayton Adams. The guy with the worst stats, player H, was Aaron Jackson.

Think back to the first time you saw each of these players.

Eyeball test. It works.
 

Just looking at stats doesn't always work. A guy may have less numbers as a freshman because he has someone in front of him. What impressed me about AJax was a frosh was his assist to turnover numbers on a horrid team. No one else on the board looked at that. That's why I was a big booster of his, when the rest of you were clamouring for Kojo, and Eric Evans. Assists to turnovers is huge for anyone playing the point.

Also, I think Hudson made a huge mistake by not staying. I know Ron basically ran him off, but he could have fought to stay. Ron intitially tried to run AJax off, but was impressed by Aaron's "no f****ing way I'm leaving" attitude. Hudson would have thrived in Ron's system, and a small forward who could score was what was really missing from Ron's second team after Mitchell, and Grote left.

 
You are amazing with your predictive abilities.  Can you give me tonight's winning lotto numbers before the drawing. 

Edgar may have been bad but at least he tried. Nee had cashed it in mentally and was content to take money for no effort. That still burns my tukus.

But I don't think the Nee hiring was the start of bad karma. As you have elaborated so many times, our history of bad choices stretched back decades before ol' flattop arrived with his chewed up clipboard and pack of Winstons.

 

xlopjoe wrote:

The bad Karma kicked in when they fired Mike Rice.

Thanks again for naming the players....made your point pretty thouroughly.

The wheels had come off for Mike though. His last team set a record for losses for a Duquesne team, and he had nothing coming back but Joey Myers, who did nothing under Rice, but blossomed under Satalin. His firing was justified.