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12/29/2018 8:58 pm  #1


RPI Projection

I know it’s early and the A 10 is in a down year but the current RPI projection for the Dukes is a 22-9 season record with 12-6 in the conference.

I’ll take it.


COFFEE
http://duquesnesports.blogspot.com/
Attitude is everything
 

12/29/2018 9:59 pm  #2


Re: RPI Projection

If their predictions for the A-10 ring true we would finish in a first place tie with Davidson and VCU.

 

12/29/2018 10:35 pm  #3


Re: RPI Projection

KenPom has the Dukes as 8-10 in the conference; good enough for a 8th place tie (4 teams).

 

12/29/2018 10:49 pm  #4


Re: RPI Projection

If KenPom is close to being right, it will be a huge disappointment.  It seems like the A-10 is truly weak this year, and DU being below .500 would be a true letdown.

 

12/30/2018 12:03 am  #5


Re: RPI Projection

applecorps wrote:

If KenPom is close to being right, it will be a huge disappointment.  It seems like the A-10 is truly weak this year, and DU being below .500 would be a true letdown.

Statistically, the Dukes are just a mediocre team. They are below average offensively due to poor shooting and excessive turnovers. Defensively, they have improved and are above average. The Dukes 9-3 record has been achieved vs. the 27th easiest schedule in the country.

On an individual game basis, KenPom has the Dukes only winning 6 games (GW-2, Fordham(H), Bonas(H), La Salle (A), UMass(H)). But they have the Dukes losing 8 games by 3 points or less.

As we all know, there is a lot of upside for this young talented team. If they continue to improve and stay healthy, they certainly can finish with 9 or more wins.  You can also say the same thing about most of the A-10 teams being young and talented. 10 of the 14 A-10 teams rank in the bottom 90 teams in terms of experience, so they may be improving also.

 

12/30/2018 12:34 am  #6


Re: RPI Projection

I'm a bit surprised by the 27th easiest schedule.

 

12/30/2018 12:50 am  #7


Re: RPI Projection

WashPaRick wrote:

I'm a bit surprised by the 27th easiest schedule.

Me too I find it hard to believe we are only about 20 places ahead of last year's when we played about 7 of the bottom 15 RPIs in the country.
 


Victi sumus Richmond!!!!
Nunc Bonnies delenda est!!!!!
 

12/30/2018 2:15 am  #8


Re: RPI Projection

NOT to be "The Elephant in the Room"  QUITE pleased with 9-3 to date -  BUT if the one player from UIC did NOT have a brain cramp and make a LAYUP at the buzzer in a THREE point game AND if the player from Eastern Kentucky makes BOTH free throws MAYBE the team is 7-5!!

Close out the year with a win over NJIT and hopefully do well in the A-10!!

 

12/30/2018 10:11 am  #9


Re: RPI Projection

WashPaRick wrote:

I'm a bit surprised by the 27th easiest schedule.

Pitt has had the 9th easiest schedule in the country; Fordham the 2nd easiest. It’s natural to look at records this time of year, but one needs to dig a bit deeper to better project conference outcomes.
FWIW, here’s the Dukes record vs. KenPom ratings:
Rank 1-50: 0-1
Rank 51-100: 0-2
Rank 101-150: 2-0
Rank 151-200: 1-0
Rank 201-250: 3-0
Rank 251-300: 1-0
Rank 301+: 2-0

 

12/30/2018 10:39 am  #10


Re: RPI Projection

"The future has not been written yet" - Doc Brown

I for one am glad the game is played by kids and not computers.  Computers can't gage the will to win, developing talent, or other intangibles.  I am very pleased where we are and having watched all the A10 teams this year feel very confident we are capable of beating them all.  No exception.    

 

12/30/2018 12:08 pm  #11


Re: RPI Projection

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

WashPaRick wrote:

I'm a bit surprised by the 27th easiest schedule.

Pitt has had the 9th easiest schedule in the country; Fordham the 2nd easiest. It’s natural to look at records this time of year, but one needs to dig a bit deeper to better project conference outcomes.
FWIW, here’s the Dukes record vs. KenPom ratings:
Rank 1-50: 0-1
Rank 51-100: 0-2
Rank 101-150: 2-0
Rank 151-200: 1-0
Rank 201-250: 3-0
Rank 251-300: 1-0
Rank 301+: 2-0

This is useful. Thanks.

Where are the other A-10 schools with RPI? ( Don't know how/too lazy to learn how to look.)
 

 

12/30/2018 12:45 pm  #12


Re: RPI Projection

phil95 wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

WashPaRick wrote:

I'm a bit surprised by the 27th easiest schedule.

Pitt has had the 9th easiest schedule in the country; Fordham the 2nd easiest. It’s natural to look at records this time of year, but one needs to dig a bit deeper to better project conference outcomes.
FWIW, here’s the Dukes record vs. KenPom ratings:
Rank 1-50: 0-1
Rank 51-100: 0-2
Rank 101-150: 2-0
Rank 151-200: 1-0
Rank 201-250: 3-0
Rank 251-300: 1-0
Rank 301+: 2-0

This is useful. Thanks.

Where are the other A-10 schools with RPI? ( Don't know how/too lazy to learn how to look.)
 

I’ve pretty much discarded everything except the KenPom ratings for analysis; so have most coaching staffs.

In the A-10, there appears to be two clear stratas:
Top 6 teams, ranked 70 to 107 — VCU, Dayton, Davidson, Saint Louis, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s
Next 4 teams, ranked 141 to 164 — UMass, George Mason, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure
Then, spread out toward the bottom are Richmond (181), Fordham, La Salle and GW (273)

There is a separation, minimal, between the top two stratas - example is that the Dukes would be a 5½ point neutral court underdog to Saint’s Joseph’s.

The schedule is also favorable for the Dukes.  They play at home for 5 of their 8 games vs the top 6 teams. They play away for 4 of their 6 games against the bottom 4 teams. If the Dukes can take care of business at home, winning 6 or 7 games; and pick up 3 or 4 victories on the road, they would be looking at the vicinity of 10 wins. Probably good enough for a 4th to 6th place finish. That’s where I think the Dukes will land.

 

12/30/2018 12:49 pm  #13


Re: RPI Projection

A key indicator will be two road games in mid January. The first at Richmond, the second at George Washington. Win both and maybe be at 4-1 in the conference before coming into a tough 4 game stretch.

 

12/30/2018 1:54 pm  #14


Re: RPI Projection

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

A key indicator will be two road games in mid January. The first at Richmond, the second at George Washington. Win both and maybe be at 4-1 in the conference before coming into a tough 4 game stretch.

Ugh Richmond!  I almost believe Richmond could pull 12 students off the campus, put them in uniforms and beat the Dukes.
 


Victi sumus Richmond!!!!
Nunc Bonnies delenda est!!!!!
 

12/30/2018 4:01 pm  #15


Re: RPI Projection

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

phil95 wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:


Pitt has had the 9th easiest schedule in the country; Fordham the 2nd easiest. It’s natural to look at records this time of year, but one needs to dig a bit deeper to better project conference outcomes.
FWIW, here’s the Dukes record vs. KenPom ratings:
Rank 1-50: 0-1
Rank 51-100: 0-2
Rank 101-150: 2-0
Rank 151-200: 1-0
Rank 201-250: 3-0
Rank 251-300: 1-0
Rank 301+: 2-0

This is useful. Thanks.

Where are the other A-10 schools with RPI? ( Don't know how/too lazy to learn how to look.)
 

I’ve pretty much discarded everything except the KenPom ratings for analysis; so have most coaching staffs.

In the A-10, there appears to be two clear stratas:
Top 6 teams, ranked 70 to 107 — VCU, Dayton, Davidson, Saint Louis, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s
Next 4 teams, ranked 141 to 164 — UMass, George Mason, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure
Then, spread out toward the bottom are Richmond (181), Fordham, La Salle and GW (273)

There is a separation, minimal, between the top two stratas - example is that the Dukes would be a 5½ point neutral court underdog to Saint’s Joseph’s.

The schedule is also favorable for the Dukes.  They play at home for 5 of their 8 games vs the top 6 teams. They play away for 4 of their 6 games against the bottom 4 teams. If the Dukes can take care of business at home, winning 6 or 7 games; and pick up 3 or 4 victories on the road, they would be looking at the vicinity of 10 wins. Probably good enough for a 4th to 6th place finish. That’s where I think the Dukes will land.

Thanks

 

12/30/2018 4:23 pm  #16


Re: RPI Projection

CLK wrote:

"The future has not been written yet" - Doc Brown

I for one am glad the game is played by kids and not computers.  Computers can't gage the will to win, developing talent, or other intangibles.  I am very pleased where we are and having watched all the A10 teams this year feel very confident we are capable of beating them all.  No exception.    

Count it. And one.

 

12/30/2018 4:42 pm  #17


Re: RPI Projection

ElDuque wrote:

CLK wrote:

"The future has not been written yet" - Doc Brown

I for one am glad the game is played by kids and not computers.  Computers can't gage the will to win, developing talent, or other intangibles.  I am very pleased where we are and having watched all the A10 teams this year feel very confident we are capable of beating them all.  No exception.    

Count it. And one.

And 2 -  NOT to mention the Computers in December might NOT be aware of injuries/suspensions to players in February and March --  I just appreciate the Predictions for the NEXT GAME - not looking in December for the result of an early March game against U Mass at this point

 

1/16/2019 10:35 pm  #18


Re: RPI Projection

coffee wrote:

I know it’s early and the A 10 is in a down year but the current RPI projection for the Dukes is a 22-9 season record with 12-6 in the conference.

I’ll take it.

If this is indeed going to come to pass then tonight's win was an important and necessary step in the right direction.
 

 

1/16/2019 10:54 pm  #19


Re: RPI Projection

VBC wrote:

coffee wrote:

I know it’s early and the A 10 is in a down year but the current RPI projection for the Dukes is a 22-9 season record with 12-6 in the conference.

I’ll take it.

If this is indeed going to come to pass then tonight's win was an important and necessary step in the right direction.
 

The loss to NJIT makes that record impossible. 12-6 will have us at 21-10, which I would take in a NY minute.
 

 

1/16/2019 11:21 pm  #20


Re: RPI Projection

duq81 wrote:

VBC wrote:

coffee wrote:

I know it’s early and the A 10 is in a down year but the current RPI projection for the Dukes is a 22-9 season record with 12-6 in the conference.

I’ll take it.

If this is indeed going to come to pass then tonight's win was an important and necessary step in the right direction.
 

The loss to NJIT makes that record impossible. 12-6 will have us at 21-10, which I would take in a NY minute.
 

Yes, I'm on;y concerned with the conference at this point.  The GW game on Sunday is another needed road win if we're going to finish at or near the top of the league.
 

 

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