Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum » Game Thread

PhoenixRising2 · 2/13/2019 8:22 am

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 02/13/2019 at Tom Gola Arena, Philadelphis, PA.
Per KenPom:
Dukes #163 (16-8; 7-4 5th) vs La Salle Explorers #211 (7-15; 5-5 8th) - Atlantic 10 Conference
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 1, 72-71 - Dukes with 48% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 1½ point underdogs; Over/Under 145½
Duquesne 11-12-1 Against the Spread: La Salle 10-11-1 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Radford (120); Saint Louis (145); Rhode Island (148)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): NJIT (173); St. Bonaventure (153); Notre Dame (89)
La Salle Best Win(s): Richmond (193); Saint Joseph's (201); UMass (215)
La Salle Worst Loss(es): Lafayette (298); George Washington (267); Drexel (233)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at La Salle for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: Effective FG % (275); Turnover % (263)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (63)
Defensive Weakness: FT Rate (338); Offensive Rebound % (263)

Here's a look at La Salle in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: FT Rate (12); Turnover % (11)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (4)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (11); FT Rate (11)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Offensive Rebound % (73)
Offensive Weakness: Turnover % (297)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (43); Effective FG % (79)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (328)

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: Turnover % (12)
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (4)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (14)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
La Salle Adj Offense Efficiency - 100.3; 247 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 101.9; 130 in D-1
La Salle Adj Defense Efficiency - 104.6; 195 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 102.0; 216 in D-1
La Salle Adj Tempo - 69.5; 81 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 69.8; 75 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - La Salle 1.47 yrs; 247 in D-1; Dukes 0.69 yrs; 347 in D-1
Average Height - La Salle 76.3"; 247 in D-1; Dukes 75.9"; 300 in D-1

luckymcd · 2/13/2019 9:37 am

Is there something I'm missing about this game? I'm shocked to see LaSalle favored. All I can see in their favor is home court, but they lost to Lafayette, Drexel, Grand Canyon, Bucknell, and Penn at home. They lost by 36 to Miami and 17 to Northwestern at home. They've been better in conference, but they still lost to VCU, St. Louis, GW, and URI, all of whom we beat. KenPom favors them despite them being good at literally nothing. ESPN says smart money is on them, but the money has been pouring in on LaSalle over the last day. What gives? Is there a new injury I don't know about? Did the team have trouble traveling in the storm again? Am I overestimating the Dukes for the first time ever?

PistolPete · 2/13/2019 9:54 am

I guess LaSalle playing well lately is the reason as we are now healthy - outside of ARotroff. Also we lost to VCU.

townsonkid · 2/13/2019 10:31 am

Dukes were practicing last night in the 76ers practice facility. No travel issues.
I think its just home court. We'd only be a few pt fav at home. LaSalle can beat us, heck, anyone can, but they are 5-1 in their last 6 I believe. Pookie and Deas are the 2 guys that worry me.
I'd like to see 15+ pts from MHughes tonight. Get them in foul trouble. But most of all, limit TOs.
Is Norman due back tonight?

yak-rbc · 2/13/2019 11:02 am

Norman is healthy.

Frankie Hughes has knee issues but I saw on TDM's Instagram him practicing last night. I assume he is probable

yak-rbc · 2/13/2019 11:05 am

Why La Salle is so favored recently is they have a couple wins on the road, which computers measure very favorably. They're also a much different team than opening day.

Saul Phiri is an absolute sharpshooter from downtown and he was either injured or academically ineligible in the fall

I would take the Dukes here but it's not that surprising that LA Salle is favored or in a coin flip

CLK · 2/13/2019 11:26 am

As we have seen, the Dukes are not intimidated playing on the road. Limit the turnovers and we win by 10. Go Dukes!

Westender · 2/13/2019 11:42 am

Not surprised LaSalle is favored by a few. I watched their game at George Mason on Sunday. They stayed with GM until the end. I think they are better than their record,and they have 2 or 3 that can play. Probably need to shoot well from 3 point line to win this one.

Duques102 · 2/13/2019 12:24 pm

Missed the last 2 being on the west coast for a work conference, glad to be back to see the Dukes. I think Lasalle has some nice talent and took a while to get going with the coaching change.

This will not be an easy one. Looks like they have a pretty legit three headed monster in Powell, Deas, and Phiri. Here are those three’s point outputs in the last five games.

Powell: 16, 9, 18, 14, 18
Deas: 20, 12, 13, 7, 12
Phiri: 14, 14, 13, 17, 17

They even have other guys on this roster that have put up really respectable numbers in the last five.

David Beatty: 5, 11, 5, 15, 11
Traci Carter: 10, 2, 0, 18, 12
6’ 8” guard Jack Clark: 11, 9, 9, 14, 17
Ed Croswell: 4, 9, 9, 8, 6

Basically looks like they have about 7 guys that can get you double digit points every night, don’t think we could say that. This team is DEEP offensively!

Based on these numbers they must be scoring a TON of points.

levon1975 · 2/13/2019 12:49 pm

LaSalle was probably the game of the year last year for the Dukes. They looked absolutely dead on a few different occasions in this one; as both teams had problems closing out the game. LaSalle coughed it up badly in regulation, while the Dukes couldn't hold the lead in the 1st OT. The final was 101 - 94 with the Dukes claiming the 2-OT win. Much has changed since last year. LaSalle fired their coach Dr. John, and the Dukes have practically an entire new roster. LaSalle,however, has some veteran talent in Pookie Powell a 5th year grad student, Isiah Deas a Junior, and Saul Phiri another Junior, Traci Carter a Redshirt Junior transfer from Marquette. They have a lot of guys who can score and are a pretty athletic group. This would be a tough game even is LaSalle wasn't on a nice upswing. The Dukes will face a tough task in this one. I win would be a very nice surprise, but I don't like what I'm seeing; but hoping for a surprise from the underdog Dukes.

PhoenixRising2 · 2/13/2019 4:26 pm

Here’s a good explanation on why the betting line favors La Salle.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/02/13/college-basketball-odds-vanderbilt-south-carolina-ucf-la-salle

Westender · 2/13/2019 4:41 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Here’s a good explanation on why the betting line favors La Salle.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/02/13/college-basketball-odds-vanderbilt-south-carolina-ucf-la-salle

This link covers my concerns exactly after seeing LaSalle for the first time on Sunday against G Mason.

DennisC91 · 2/13/2019 4:52 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Here’s a good explanation on why the betting line favors La Salle.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/02/13/college-basketball-odds-vanderbilt-south-carolina-ucf-la-salle

We are "simply not a good team", our record is "smoke and mirrors" and we are "fraudulent." Ouch. Good bulletin board material though. Sounds like a good opportunity for Mike Hughes to have a big game.

IronDukes12 · 2/13/2019 6:03 pm

Agreed. This could be a great motivator. I hope the bettors that follow this guy's advice lose a bundle tonight.

Let's Go Iron Dukes!

2/13/2019 6:46 pm

Great a lot of action on This game against our mighty Dukes. Perfect....The mob never loses. Referees compromised can you say Good Fellows Henry Hill. I still remember the Penn State game never saw a coach get double technicals. Guess who covered. Referee hugs PSU players post game. Unfortunately legal gambling compromises players & referees. Don’t think the NCAA is aware of this issue. Dukes in a good spot tonight.

applecorps · 2/13/2019 7:02 pm

I think there probably is not a lot of action on this game in the betting world. It's actually surprising that the guy is covering the Dukes in his gambling advice column.

I also think he is wrong.

WashPaRick · 2/13/2019 7:53 pm

Hanging in there so far. I thought we were due for a clunker. Got hit the defensive boards harder.

applecorps · 2/13/2019 7:57 pm

WashPaRick wrote:
Hanging in there so far. I thought we were due for a clunker. Got hit the defensive boards harder.

True, although there have been many long bounces that have facilitated LaSalle's big numbers on the offensive boards.

townsonkid · 2/13/2019 8:02 pm

Is tied at half good for us? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Duques102 · 2/13/2019 8:02 pm

applecorps wrote:
WashPaRick wrote:
Hanging in there so far. I thought we were due for a clunker. Got hit the defensive boards harder.
True, although there have been many long bounces that have facilitated LaSalle's big numbers on the offensive boards.

Still, they have to be better on the defensive glass. Pretty sure they said La Salle has 13 offensive rebounds. Gotta be better than that.

They have fought hard so far and are in a good position to start the 2nd. No one with more than 2 fouls, one of there starting bigs has 3.

townsonkid · 2/13/2019 8:33 pm

So sloppy, on defense as much as offense.

applecorps · 2/13/2019 8:44 pm

Inside 4 minutes. Production: p-poor camera work, insufferable announcers.

duq81 · 2/13/2019 8:58 pm

Hate to miss those free throws.

townsonkid · 2/13/2019 9:00 pm

Let that one get away. Bad loss, cant sugar coat it.

Westender · 2/13/2019 9:02 pm

Missing free throws at critical points in games is a killer. And to close out my 2cents on the game,the ball in Brandon Wade's hands scares the hell out of me.

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PhoenixRising2 wrote:

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WashPaRick wrote:

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applecorps wrote:

WashPaRick wrote:

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