Wow, he's not too high on the league. Some rankings I've seen have 2 teams in the Top 25, with Dayton not far behind. We'd be a one bid league if he's correct.

Considering we finished at 173 last year, 109 seems a solid improvement and not too bad a place to start.

duq81 wrote:

Wow, he's not too high on the league. Some rankings I've seen have 2 teams in the Top 25, with Dayton not far behind. We'd be a one bid league if he's correct.

Final Rankings from KenPom (NCAA Bids):

2019 - 11 (2)
2018 - 10 (3)
2017 - 8 (3)
2016 - 8 (3)
2015 - 7 (3)
2014 - 8 (6)
2013 - 8 (5)
2012 - 8 (4)
2011 - 9 (3)
2010 - 7 (3)

I know there are some outliers and quirks in this, but I don' see how we would only be a 1 bid league at #9. 
 

DennisC91 wrote:

Seems to be somewhat of a disconnect between the conference ranking and the individual team rankings. If you look at the latter, only VCU projects to earn an at-large bid. Anyone else would have to win the conference tourney to get in, same as last year when St. Louis won the tourney from the 6th seed and VCU got an at-large after winning the regular season championship then losing in the quarters to Rhode Island. I'm sure any number of teams could play their way onto the bubble, maybe even our beloved Dukes, but the way KenPom projects the season to go, it does look like only VCU would get an at-large bid. That said, if the A10 were the 9th best conference, I would think the individual team rankings would be better than this.

Agree with everything you have here. One thing I would add is to stress that these are PRE SEASON PROJECTIONS. If the A10 comes out and has a really strong OOC against the bigger schools/conferences this stuff could change as well. It has definitely happened in the past, can't point to particularly when, but if you have the VCUs, URIs, Daytons etc. play against some P5 and ranked opponents in OOC and say we have a winning record cumulatively, and 2-3 teams end up going into the conference season ranked, this could certainly see the number of projected at-larges increase.

Say this happens, DU goes undefeated or 1 loss in what is an admittedly weaker OOC than what I am suggesting above. If we then go into A10 play with 3 ranked teams, and say we finish top 3 in the league (HYPOTHETICAL), and the other 2-3 ranked teams also finish in that top 3/4, we could certainly see more at-larges in that scenario.

I believe the higher end of the A10 could surprise in OOC this year and that would certainly help the profile of the conference as it relates to power rankings/at-large bids. I'm not familiar with other team's OOC schedules but the A10 big boys will have some good matchups as they do every year.

This season has a lot of question marks but it also has the potential to be a historical one for this program IF THE STARS ALIGN. This is my first time going into the season as a Dukes fan seeing a realistic path for this program to make the NCAAs, not expecting it but it also aint 1,000,000-1 like it's felt in other years. I cannot wait to see how it plays out!

GO DUKES!!!!

WEB wrote:

duq81 wrote:

Wow, he's not too high on the league. Some rankings I've seen have 2 teams in the Top 25, with Dayton not far behind. We'd be a one bid league if he's correct.

Final Rankings from KenPom (NCAA Bids):

2019 - 11 (2)
2018 - 10 (3)
2017 - 8 (3)
2016 - 8 (3)
2015 - 7 (3)
2014 - 8 (6)
2013 - 8 (5)
2012 - 8 (4)
2011 - 9 (3)
2010 - 7 (3)

I know there are some outliers and quirks in this, but I don' see how we would only be a 1 bid league at #9. 
 

Bids go to teams, not leagues. Having six teams above 110, and none below 240 will give your league a solid rating, but to get a bid from our level, you really need to be in the top 50. 57, and 61 aren't going to cut it. However, Ken Pomeroy isn't on the committee, and this is just his opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
 

Regarding the non conference schedule, the Dukes do not play anyone ranked higher than themselves in KenPom's preseason model:
180 Princeton
281 Lamar
182 Lipscomb
158 Indiana St.
171 Air Force
173 Loyola Marymount
268 VMI
151 Columbia
137 Radford
202 Austin Peay
123 UAB
195 Marshall

Don't want to make your head hurt, but....
Unlike predictions found in magazines, blogs, online sites, KenPom's preseason "rankings" are just a starting point for this season's statistical analysis.  Before the season, KenPom projects what he believes each team's offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (points per possession) will be this coming season. He establishes this based upon a variety of factors, most importantly the statistics of the returning players and transfers, last year's stats along with the coach's statistical history for his teams. He typically doesn't take into account the impact of freshman, unless they are one of the top 25 or so players.

Again, a starting point. In his blog, this question is posed.  When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?  As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.

Taking a look back to last year, he nailed the Dukes pretty well.
Preseason, he had the Dukes ranked #171 in country; we finished #173
Preseason, Projected offensive efficiency at #161; we finished at #171
Preseason, Projected defensive efficiency at #191; we finished at #190
The Dukes ended up with a better record than he projected due to the fact that most of the teams in conference and non-conference opponents underperformed.

This year, KenPom projects:
Dukes Offensive Efficiency 103.5 (#117 in country); finished last year at 104.6 (#171 in country)
Dukes Defensive Efficiency 98.3 (#106 in country); finished last year at 105.5 (#190 in country)
Dukes Margin vs. statistically average opponent +5.2 (#109 in country); finished last year at -0.9 (#173 in the country)
Note: the effect of the increased 3 point line distance is projected to reduce offensive efficiency and increase defensive efficiency; less points per 100 possessions.

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (10/23/2019 4:52 pm)