Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum » Game Thread

PhoenixRising2 · 1/07/2020 10:06 pm

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/08/2020 at Hagan Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Per KenPom:
Dukes #75 (12-2; 2-0) vs Saint Joseph's Hawks #258 (3-11; 0-2)
Game prediction: Dukes win by 9, 79-70 - Dukes with 79% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 7½ point favorites; Over/Under 147½
Duquesne 7-7 Against the Spread: Saint Joseph's 7-7 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Davidson (82); Saint Louis (98); Indiana State (115)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): UAB (170); Marshall (144)
Saint Joseph's Best Win(s): Connecticut (71); Bradley (112)
Saint Joseph's Worst Loss(es): Lafayette (196); Towson (186)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Saint Joseph's for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Turnover % (96)
Offensive Weakness: Effective FG % (301); FT Rate (269)
Defensive Strength: None
Defensive Weakness: Turnover % (345); Effective FG % (280)

Here's a look at Saint Joseph's in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: Effective FG % (11); FT Rate (11)
Defensive Strength: Offensive Rebound % (4); FT Rate (4)
Defensive Weakness: Turnover % (14); Effective FG % (11)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Effective FG % (80)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (73); Turnover % (77); FT Rate (88)
Defensive Weakness: None

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: FT Rate (1); Effective FG % (2)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: FT Rate (3); Effective FG % (4)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (11)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Saint Joseph's Adj Offense Efficiency - 99.7, #184 in D-1; 82.2, #14 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 93.0, #55 in D-1; 90.5, #4 in A-10
Saint Joseph's Adj Defense Efficiency - 106.7, #306 in D-1; 113.3, #14 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.1, #114 in D-1; 106.0. #4 in A-10
Saint Joseph's Adj Tempo - 74.4, #20 in D-1; 72.4, #3 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 69.6, #179 in D-1; 68.0. #8 in A-10

Miscellaneous
Experience - Saint Joseph's 1.24 yrs, #304 in D-1; Dukes 1.40 yrs, #269 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - Saint Joseph's 21.7%, #337 in D-1; Dukes 55.4%, #114 in D-1
Average Height - Saint Joseph's 77.8", #56 in D-1; Dukes 75.9", #298 in D-1

PhoenixRising2 · 1/07/2020 10:06 pm

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 70th in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Joseph's is 235th in the country and OUT in the NCAA.
Automated Game Preview: http://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=5229&neut=0
Overall Ratings: http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

FAM · 1/08/2020 8:00 am

Loved reading automated game preview. Though we have higher rankings in areas, their strength of schedule and if their 3 point shooting is on, will make this a tough game for the Dukes. Hopefully, we all realize we are still a work in progress for “this year” and can’t assume anything. Just go back to the two OOC games we lost. I’m actually glad this one is on their court...I think the Dukes will focus more. Go Dukes!

1111 Vickroy · 1/08/2020 8:19 am

Anyone know where this can be viewed other than in person?

townsonkid · 1/08/2020 8:36 am

TELEVISION: ESPN+ with Matt Martucci & Joe Lunardi

Hopefully our guys got a taste of winning when they play solid defense, and enjoyed that taste. Keep it up!!!

yak-rbc · 1/08/2020 9:14 am

#1 in the conference in free throw rate and #3 in the conference in defensive free throw rate.

No one complain about refereeing tonight

duq81 · 1/08/2020 9:22 am

yak-rbc wrote:
#1 in the conference in free throw rate and #3 in the conference in defensive free throw rate.

No one complain about refereeing tonight

Fans always complain about the officials. The bad calls that go their team's way are great calls, and every call against them is an atrocity.

Mulder · 1/08/2020 9:39 am

1111 Vickroy wrote:
Anyone know where this can be viewed other than in person?

This morning's paper also says ESPN3 (different? online I think right?)

yak-rbc · 1/08/2020 10:40 am

ESPN+ only, which is different and requires its own separate subscription even though both are only online.

Whatever paper you read is wrong

Duques102 · 1/08/2020 11:54 am

townsonkid wrote:
TELEVISION: ESPN+ with Matt Martucci & Joe Lunardi

Hopefully our guys got a taste of winning when they play solid defense, and enjoyed that taste. Keep it up!!!

For those unaware, Joe Lunardi aka “Joey Brackets” also works at ESPN as their chief “bracketologist” as the season gets closer to the tourney. He uses a system he came up with like KENPOM to determine who will be in each years bracket and got the job at ESPN years back when his system accurately predicted the entire bracket that year, regions and seeding included! He is an Alum of St. Joes and even teaches a bracketology class there.

With 4 or 5 weeks left he will start releasing projected brackets, including the highly monitored “last 4 in” and “last 4 out” and “next 4 out”

All that background to say I am really looking forward to his analysis of the Dukes and their NCAA chances this year as it will undoubtedly be covered by him in tonight’s game! Go Dukes!!!

FAM · 1/08/2020 12:40 pm

Good to Know - here is my tonight’s prediction: I don’t know...if I did, I would bet!!!
HOWEVER, if we do win, I believe we will have a realistic shot at the NIT as the season continues to unfold. If we win, I believe it means we haven’t just gone up and down as usual, but have actually gone up another level to a true competitor. Go Dukes!

Brian · 1/08/2020 1:42 pm

Duques102 wrote:
townsonkid wrote:
TELEVISION: ESPN+ with Matt Martucci & Joe Lunardi

Hopefully our guys got a taste of winning when they play solid defense, and enjoyed that taste. Keep it up!!!
For those unaware, Joe Lunardi aka “Joey Brackets” also works at ESPN as their chief “bracketologist” as the season gets closer to the tourney. He uses a system he came up with like KENPOM to determine who will be in each years bracket and got the job at ESPN years back when his system accurately predicted the entire bracket that year, regions and seeding included! He is an Alum of St. Joes and even teaches a bracketology class there.

With 4 or 5 weeks left he will start releasing projected brackets, including the highly monitored “last 4 in” and “last 4 out” and “next 4 out”

All that background to say I am really looking forward to his analysis of the Dukes and their NCAA chances this year as it will undoubtedly be covered by him in tonight’s game! Go Dukes!!!

He’s been updating his projected bracket at least once a week in 2019 and has brackets out for 1/3 and 1/7.
The three other 2-0 teams in league play are off until Saturday. So *knock on wood* if the Dukes get through this week unscathed, or if he puts out a Friday bracket and tonight goes in the books as a Dukes W, we could see what seed he’d put Duquesne at as an auto-bid based on current leader in standings. I realize it’s not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things but if seeing Duquesne on Bracketology is of interest to anyone, it’s possibly on the table with wins in the next one or two games.

Here’s hoping for a solid and focused effort on both ends of the floor from the jump playing Duquesne ball and dictating the tempo and style of play and it baited into playing St Joe’s supposed free-wheeling style.

DennisC91 · 1/08/2020 2:57 pm

I saw in another thread folks were talking about Ryan Daly being St. Joe's only real weapon. I remember his father, Brian Daly, playing for St. Joe's in my era. In fact, right around this time 32 years ago, I went to Hawk Hill while home on Christmas break to see the Dukes play St. Joe's. Brian Daly dropped 9 3-pointers on us in a St. Joe's win. Of course that was the Jim Satalin era and his teams were about as competent on defense as Jim Ferry's teams were. Ryan Daly appears to be about the same height and build as his dad though not as good an outside shooter. Here's hoping for a much different result tonight.

1/08/2020 9:09 pm

Great win. Coach takes nice to Ray. Should be no complaints. Go Dukes.

NapaDuke · 1/08/2020 9:10 pm

Good game tonight. Dukes looked sharp. Early lead and kept St Joe's in check. Let's hope the GW game goes the same way.

Tejas_Duke · 1/08/2020 9:24 pm

yak-rbc wrote:
#1 in the conference in free throw rate and #3 in the conference in defensive free throw rate.

No one complain about refereeing tonight

The ESPN announcer said the Dukes were sixth in the nation in free throw percentage, just under 80%

Tejas_Duke · 1/08/2020 9:27 pm

You gotta love an 18 point win, where the game wasn't as close as the score made it seem. Dukes led by mid 20s for most of the second half.

duq81 · 1/08/2020 9:34 pm

Tejas_Duke wrote:
You gotta love an 18 point win, where the game wasn't as close as the score made it seem. Dukes led by mid 20s for most of the second half.

Where is our boy Ritter? I hope he's not sick. 🚑😷🔬

stew · 1/08/2020 9:36 pm

I expected a somewhat competitive game and Dukes look really good.Its surreal to ever
believe Dukes could be this good to go on the road at St. Joes and embarrass them.
Carry has got a large chip on his shoulder and he is just killing it,. He looks to be so
mentally focused,shutting down Daly.The team plays such good defense.WOW.

stew · 1/08/2020 9:44 pm

This team deserves some love.I will be at the Fordham game and hopefully Pittsburgh folks will
come out and support the team for the rest of the season.

gjgsr · 1/08/2020 9:57 pm

Duq's disruption of the St. Joe guards, particularly Carry on Daley who incredibly had only 3 points... i think continues to be a road map for winning. And of course Hughes and Marcus clogging the middle & underneath created havoc. Would be great if Rotroff could also develop into a defensive force...

PhoenixRising2 · 1/08/2020 10:11 pm

Right now...
The Dukes are 4th in the country in 2 point shooting percentage at 56.9%.
The Dukes are 9th in the country in FT shooting percentage at 78.4%.

The Dukes are 17th in the country in 3 point defense shooting percentage at 27.8%.
The Dukes are 2nd in the country in defensive block percentage at 17.7%.

WOW!!!

Brian · 1/08/2020 10:17 pm

Sole possession of first place with the other undefeated teams off for the weekday slate.

Great balance and solid output on both ends of the floor.

Nice all around game from Sin. He was KenPom box score MVP with the numbers and MVP by the eyes with the defensive effort on Daly.

PhoenixRising2 · 1/08/2020 10:23 pm

Brian wrote:
Sole possession of first place with the other undefeated teams off for the weekday slate.

Great balance and solid output on both ends of the floor.

Nice all around game from Sin. He was KenPom box score MVP with the numbers and MVP by the eyes with the defensive effort on Daly.

Right on, Brian. Joe Lunardi had a lot of good things to say about the Dukes. He was skeptical at the start; seems he was converted to the belief that the Dukes are a top tier A10 contender by the end of the game.

Brian · 1/08/2020 10:39 pm

Dukes are #1 in both eFG% for offense and defense in the early going of league play.
55.6% on offense behind the strength of 61.1% from two point range and 39.6% defensive eFG% behind 25% three point shooting, 41.2% from 2 and 20.2% block rate.

Will need to clean up the rebounding and these next few games are against teams that aren't so good on the offensive boards so we will find out if last years defensive achilles heel is still an issue or tonight was an aberration.