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1/10/2020 7:05 pm  #1


Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

4:00pm EST tip on Saturday 01/11/2020 at the Charles E. Smith Center, Washington, DC
Per KenPom:
Dukes #66 (13-2; 3-0) vs George Washington Colonials #251 (6-9; 0-2)
Game prediction: Dukes win by 8, 70-62 - Dukes with 78% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 7 point favorites; Over/Under 136½
Duquesne 8-7 Against the Spread: George Washington 7-8 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Davidson (86); Saint Louis (99); Indiana State (115)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): UAB (159); Marshall (142)
George Washington Best Win(s): Delaware (182); Boston University (204)
George Washington Worst Loss(es): Morgan St. (295); UMKC (249)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at George Washington for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Turnover % (76)
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (260) 
Defensive Strength:  None
Defensive Weakness:  Turnover % (341)

Here's a look at George Washington in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  None
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (13)
Defensive Strength:  None
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (14); Turnover % (13)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Effective FG % (67)
Offensive Weakness:  None
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (42); Turnover % (83); FT Rate (93)
Defensive Weakness:  None

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Effective FG % (1)
Offensive Weakness:  None
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (1) 
Defensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (13); Turnover % (11)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
George Washington Adj Offense Efficiency - 97.3, #233 in D-1; 96.8, #7 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 92.9, #53 in D-1; 90.3, #5 in A-10
George Washington Adj Defense Efficiency - 104.1, #253 in D-1; 104.6, #11 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.7, #108 in D-1; 109.5, #2 in A-10
George Washington Adj Tempo - 66.9, #280 in D-1; 64.1, #13 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 68.7, #201 in D-1; 67.6, #9 in A-10

Miscellaneous
Experience - George Washington 1.46 yrs, #252 in D-1; Dukes 1.40 yrs, #272 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - George Washington 41.1%, #226 in D-1; Dukes 55.4%, #115 in D-1
Average Height - George Washington 77.0", #154 in D-1; Dukes 75.9", #295 in D-1

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/11/2020 8:35 am)

 

1/10/2020 7:05 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 61st in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament.
George Washington is 250th in the country and OUT in the NCAA.
Automated Game Preview:  http://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=113&neut=0
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

     Thread Starter
 

1/11/2020 7:36 am  #3


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 61st in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament.
George Washington is 250th in the country and OUT in the NCAA.
Automated Game Preview:  http://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=113&neut=0
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

Appreciate an analysis that takes into as many factors as this one -  Seems a bit unusual that in the category of "momentum" GW has the edge -  Hopefully DU finds a way to win and continues to play solidly.
 

 

1/11/2020 10:03 am  #4


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Couple of things...
Skeptic - I agree - I was surprised that momentum was on their "side" also
-Coach didn't practice the team on Thursday after their long bus ride.  Yesterday, he only practiced for 35 minutes.  I guess we will find out if not having a hard practice as he did before and between the two losses and resting the legs will result in a win.  When he cut down practice before he said it was a problem however after last week, he had to rest folks.  I think it was a good idea but what do I know...  Go Dukes!

(Another article on a player - Today - Maceo - Tribune Review)

Last edited by FAM (1/11/2020 10:19 am)

 

1/11/2020 10:31 am  #5


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Please take the time to read the GW stats and synopsis of the Dukes and the Game; it is excellent.
viewtopic.php

 

1/11/2020 10:46 am  #6


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

SkepticAl wrote:

Seems a bit unusual that in the category of "momentum" GW has the edge  

Well that sounds pretty skeptical.

Seriously though, you’ve got to consider how the team is currently playing compared to how the same team was playing earlier. Of course it’s true that we are 3-0 in conference while GW is 0-2. Even those losses were an improvement for GW though, because they were close losses to decent teams. They previously had big losses to Vermont and Harvard. A big win over St. Joe’s seems good, but they are rated 251st. So from a pure numbers standpoint it looks like a lot of our non-conference wins meaning our momentum is neutral.

Mississippi Valley just lost to Arkansas Pine Bluff, giving them just their second win of the season. So that’s a terrible loss. Their momentum from that game would be positive though because they only lost by 4, when they had lost the previous two to Cal Baptist and Santa Clara in blowouts. On the other hand, San Diego State just beat Wyoming by 20. Because Wyoming is much worse than the Utah State team they previously beat though, their momentum may be negative.

Last edited by luckymcd (1/11/2020 10:52 am)

 

1/11/2020 11:54 am  #7


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Haslam definition:

Mom    Momentum (Measure of team's last 6-10 performances vs. its overall season performance)

     Thread Starter
 

1/11/2020 11:59 am  #8


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

If you read the methodology of Haslametrics, our last 10 games we are 8-2. Compared to our first 10-0, we have lost some momentum. GW last 10, 5-5: first 10, 4-6 = slight gain in momentum and the edge to them in that category.
Probably over simplified since a good performance could still be a loss, and vice versa. Your mileage may vary.

Last edited by MikeR (1/11/2020 12:14 pm)

 

1/11/2020 4:48 pm  #9


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Poor defense, Sincere with 3 fouls and Battle killing us.  GW playing hard. I don’t have a good feeling about this one.,, hope I’m wrong. Go Dukes.

 

1/11/2020 4:55 pm  #10


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

GW doing a good job on Hughes and Weathers by doubling down. Might have to live or die with the 3 today.

 

1/11/2020 5:00 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Looking sluggish today.   KD needs to fire these guys up for 20 minutes.

 

1/11/2020 5:02 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

It was pretty silly to have Sin in the game at that point. There were stoppages to get him out. I absolutely love that kid but he isn't infallible. That was an unnecessary risk. 

In the interest of developing confidence, others have got to learn to do it without Sin. I suspect that the opportunity will come in the second half.

That was the quintessential TDM half. For better & worst, he showed why it is hard to take your eyes off of him.

I'll bet KD blistered some behinds in the locker room.

 

1/11/2020 5:10 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

I don’t know if them getting yelled at is what they need today.  Sincere is playing poorly, Steele was not quick enough on defense, and basically... they are exhausted. He is going to have to fix some x n o’s, sub a lot, n hope someone gets hot or they are going to get beat. Go Dukes.

 

1/11/2020 5:44 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Rugcuttin time.

 

1/11/2020 5:57 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Hand me a towel, sweating that one out.   Great ghosts alive!

 

1/11/2020 5:58 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Ladies Win - Guys Win

IT'S A GREAT DAY FOR BASKETBALL!!!

 

1/11/2020 6:04 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Sin and TDM don't get too excited. Both were giggling when we were shooting from the line up a couple with 3 minutes to go. Austin was off a little today with a couple of lazy passes in the 2nd half. Hughes and Weathers tough down the stretch. Sin big late also.

 

1/11/2020 6:06 pm  #18


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

That was pretty ugly but, it is such a pleasure to finally, consistently be on the other end of this kind of game.

Time for some rest & home cooking. Looking forward to a better showing against Fordham.

It is so impressive that Ray is still traveling with this team. What an asset to the program & school he is.

 

1/11/2020 6:10 pm  #19


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Went to the women’s W.   Watched the men’s W.   Great day for the Dukes

 

1/11/2020 6:13 pm  #20


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Well they can't all be easy. For one GW is a much better team than their record indicated. How the heck did they lose to Vermont by 20+? Beyond that, good teams can win even when they don't have their A game. We clearly didn't today, but still found a way to win. Return home, get some time off, and we should be ready to go against Fordham.

 

1/11/2020 6:18 pm  #21


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Hopefully folks show up for a game at PPG.   Sure its a wednesday v fordham, but spread the word.   Tickets are cheap!

 

1/11/2020 6:28 pm  #22


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

luckymcd wrote:

Well they can't all be easy. For one GW is a much better team than their record indicated. How the heck did they lose to Vermont by 20+? Beyond that, good teams can win even when they don't have their A game. We clearly didn't today, but still found a way to win. Return home, get some time off, and we should be ready to go against Fordham.

Match-ups. Some teams just play into your weakness. Some nights, you just can't miss.  Some nights, your are too run-down to hit a shot.  Some nights one player has a career night, (hopefully yours). But everyone wanted the Jamie Dixon's close game half court style of play vs Ron's high scoring -run away-style.  By percent of wins, half court teams with superior players win, today is that higher percent half court game. I think, every coach in BB want's to be this team. And the best players, and coach wins in this situation. Great game to watch,(because we won). Coach Dambroth has a good handle on the flow of the game with this team, especially in the second half.

 

1/11/2020 6:31 pm  #23


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

I think those who thought two road games in less than 72 hours sandwiched around the first two days of classes would make for a tired team had a point. Dukes seemed sluggish all game, not forcing turnovers and turning them into easy transition baskets, lots of unforced errors on offense and breakdowns on defense. But they gutted it out and got the win when they weren't at their best. Yes, that is the mark of a good team. 

 

1/11/2020 6:36 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

A bad team would lose when they committed 17 turnovers. Good win, can't complain. Loved the defense at the end.

 

1/11/2020 6:50 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - George Washington Colonials (A)

Dukes looked tired,lazy passing, lots of turnovers but the culture has changed and the
Dukes expect to win these close games even when not performing at a high level.
Congratulations Dukes.

 

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