He has us in as the A-10 champion. Most of the season he had Dayton as the conference champ based on their overall record. The two brackets he's done since the conference season started Dayton was tied at the top of the conference standings, so he kept them as conference champ. Now we are the only 3-0 team in conference, so he gave us the conference championship. He definitely did like what he saw in person, but that's not why he added us to the bracket.

Another, more cynical way, to look at this is that Lunardi works for a major media outlet in need of views & clicks so exciting a previously uninterested group of fans that can become loyal followers because they see their team in his prestigious bracket is a winning formula for his/ESPN'S popularity.

There is no way Lunardi sees our Dukes as even the 3rd most likely team to win the A-10 tournament or one of the fortunate teams outside the Power 5 conferences to get an at-large bid; at least not yet.

I just can't allow myself to get sucked too far into the postseason possibilities until there is a reasonable likelihood of securing an at large bid. I prefer the excitement of witnessing incremental improvement & game by game winning. Schedule strength & the end of the nonconference slate force me to approach the subject this way.

coffee wrote:

Does the conference ranking this early in the season count that much for him? He’s better than that, no?

If you look closer he has the bubble teams as 10 and 11 seeds and us a 12. The disclaimer says the he automatically considers the highest remaining seed as the conference champ. At this point we would be the number 1 seed in the conference tourney. So he has us in as the conference champ.

Last edited by luckymcd (1/11/2020 11:31 am)

I have it in my mind that as it is a longshot that DU is going to win the A-10 regular season and/or tournament championships we fans should want Dayton, VCU, Richmond, & Rhode Island to be very successful in the conference season so that when the Dukes are victorious against these teams the quality of win is higher & increases the chances of an at-large bid. Is that a dumb way to look at this?

I know that if the Dukes are sitting at 10-2 or so later in the conference season, I would start rooting for teams in front to lose so as to have better seeding in Brooklyn. Having to beat one of those teams instead of 2 or 3 to get to the tournament final is much better scenario.

Comparing the program today to Bonaventure ...
Bonnies were NCAA participants in the 2012 & 2018 tournaments

2012 -
20-12 / 10-6 / 4th in regular season
A-10 Tournament
4 Seed; Champion
NCAA - Automatic Qualifier as A-10 Tournament  Champion 
14 seed; lost to 3 seed FSU

2018 -
26-8 / 14-4 / 2nd in the regular season
A-10 Tournament
2 Seed; 1-1; lost in the semi’s to eventual champion Davidson
NCAA - At Large Bid
11 Seed; 1-1; beat UCLA in the 1st Four game; lost in next round to 6 seed Florida

The Dukes are well capable of beating any team in the League.  To do that however everyone needs to come motivated and ready to play.  I have to say, I was very disappointed with the play of Carry in the Fordham game.  I watched the game a second time, and it was obvious to me that Carry really did not come ready to play.  He looked to me to be disinterested and unmotivated.  Kind of just going through the motions, a step or two behind without any focus.  It could have been the events of the week, but we have seen this from him in other games  as well.  It is no secret that when Carry plays well we are a very good team, when he is flat the team struggles.  I say this because the Dukes have a big opportunity to make a big statement and take a big jump in getting to the NCAA with a win at URI.  To do that we need everybody to be at the top of their game, especially Carry.  These guys owe it to the team, the coach, the fans, and most of all to themselves to recognize the opportunity before them and to be engaged, motivated and playing their best.  Go Dukes!

CLK wrote:

The Dukes are well capable of beating any team in the League.  To do that however everyone needs to come motivated and ready to play.  I have to say, I was very disappointed with the play of Carry in the Fordham game.  I watched the game a second time, and it was obvious to me that Carry really did not come ready to play.  He looked to me to be disinterested and unmotivated.  Kind of just going through the motions, a step or two behind without any focus.  It could have been the events of the week, but we have seen this from him in other games  as well.  It is no secret that when Carry plays well we are a very good team, when he is flat the team struggles.  I say this because the Dukes have a big opportunity to make a big statement and take a big jump in getting to the NCAA with a win at URI.  To do that we need everybody to be at the top of their game, especially Carry.  These guys owe it to the team, the coach, the fans, and most of all to themselves to recognize the opportunity before them and to be engaged, motivated and playing their best.  Go Dukes!

I agree that Carry is key to our success. I also agree he has been inconsistent at times, and has had a couple BAD games like the other night.

I think you CAN attribute the other night to what is going on with Maceos family, from what I understand those two are the best of friends going back to pre Duquesne days, and that Carry was a big reason Maceo came here over some of those bigger name schools in the first place, they are like brothers. I think the other instances were in a stretch of games where fatigue may have played a major factor.

My point is Carry, like everyone else, will have bad games from time to time, it is inevitable. A big reason this team has started so well is because of the much referenced balance, and having 6-7 guys who can get you double digits every night.

The reason I think Wednesday was nearly catastrophic has less to do specifically with Carry but more to do with it being one of the first games where we didn’t see a couple guys pick up the slack when a main guy has an off night. Guys like TDM, Steele, Maceo, and now Norman have had big games when the big 3 (Carry, Hughes, Weathers) have had lesser performances.

The stat lines from Wednesday:
Weathers- 8 pts, 10 reb (2-7)
Hughes- 7 pts, 6 rebs (3-5)
TDM- 5 pts, 4 ast (1-9)
Steele- 8 pts, 7 reb (3-4)
Austin- 6 pts, 5 rebs, 3 ast (2-8)
Carry- 4 pts, 3 rebs, 6 ast (1-7)
Norman- 20 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast (7-11)

Steele basically gave us his average performance. Norman saved our asses with an incredible shooting performance. I referenced in another thread that he seems to be very much a confidence player and getting the starting spot may lead to increased production, let’s hope it continues.

Hughes and Weathers were OK but greatly underperformed from their usual standard just like Carry. We know TDM will give you one extreme or the other, and that night it was the 1-9 kind of night. Austin and Sin were off too compared to their average.

My point is I think this is the first time more or most of the guys underperformed on the same night, including ALL of the main, key guys. If any one of Maceo, Hughes, Weathers or TDM had their average game it wouldn’t have been as close.

Everyone underperformed, which I believe can be attributed to a team grieving together. Hopefully moving forward, we don’t have a collective off night and I also hope we continue to see Norman’s trajectory trend upward.

Go Dukes!!!

Lunardi basically invented the term bracketology, so he will always be the go-to source for information on it. He isn't necessarily the best at it though. In fact the bracket matrix not only has 64 bracketologists, but tracks who is most accurate year-to-year. They use 64 in any given year, so they have had 133 total over the years. Lunardi is ranked as 55th most accurate.

Some of the systems ranked ahead of Lunardi look pretty favorably on us. https://bracksketblogs.wordpress.com was the most accurate last year and is ranked 36th most accurate over its four year history. They have us as the sixth team out of the field. https://rsnbracketology.wordpress.com is ranked 54th most accurate over its five years history. They have us as the fifth team out of the field.

None of this is say Lunardi is wrong necessarily. He's the biggest name in the business for a reason. I don't think anyone has us in the field at this point either, except as an automatic bid because we have the best record so far. We've fallen a bit in the NET rankings, and would be the third team out of the field going strictly by those rankings used by the NCAA. So we have a lot of work to do, and playing like we did on Wednesday surely won't get it done. We are getting noticed though, and we at least have to be considered at this point.

Last edited by luckymcd (1/17/2020 5:49 pm)

Duques102 wrote:

CLK wrote:

The Dukes are well capable of beating any team in the League.  To do that however everyone needs to come motivated and ready to play.  I have to say, I was very disappointed with the play of Carry in the Fordham game.  I watched the game a second time, and it was obvious to me that Carry really did not come ready to play.  He looked to me to be disinterested and unmotivated.  Kind of just going through the motions, a step or two behind without any focus.  It could have been the events of the week, but we have seen this from him in other games  as well.  It is no secret that when Carry plays well we are a very good team, when he is flat the team struggles.  I say this because the Dukes have a big opportunity to make a big statement and take a big jump in getting to the NCAA with a win at URI.  To do that we need everybody to be at the top of their game, especially Carry.  These guys owe it to the team, the coach, the fans, and most of all to themselves to recognize the opportunity before them and to be engaged, motivated and playing their best.  Go Dukes!

I agree that Carry is key to our success. I also agree he has been inconsistent at times, and has had a couple BAD games like the other night.

I think you CAN attribute the other night to what is going on with Maceos family, from what I understand those two are the best of friends going back to pre Duquesne days, and that Carry was a big reason Maceo came here over some of those bigger name schools in the first place, they are like brothers. I think the other instances were in a stretch of games where fatigue may have played a major factor.

My point is Carry, like everyone else, will have bad games from time to time, it is inevitable. A big reason this team has started so well is because of the much referenced balance, and having 6-7 guys who can get you double digits every night.

The reason I think Wednesday was nearly catastrophic has less to do specifically with Carry but more to do with it being one of the first games where we didn’t see a couple guys pick up the slack when a main guy has an off night. Guys like TDM, Steele, Maceo, and now Norman have had big games when the big 3 (Carry, Hughes, Weathers) have had lesser performances.

The stat lines from Wednesday:
Weathers- 8 pts, 10 reb (2-7)
Hughes- 7 pts, 6 rebs (3-5)
TDM- 5 pts, 4 ast (1-9)
Steele- 8 pts, 7 reb (3-4)
Austin- 6 pts, 5 rebs, 3 ast (2-8)
Carry- 4 pts, 3 rebs, 6 ast (1-7)
Norman- 20 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast (7-11)

Steele basically gave us his average performance. Norman saved our asses with an incredible shooting performance. I referenced in another thread that he seems to be very much a confidence player and getting the starting spot may lead to increased production, let’s hope it continues.

Hughes and Weathers were OK but greatly underperformed from their usual standard just like Carry. We know TDM will give you one extreme or the other, and that night it was the 1-9 kind of night. Austin and Sin were off too compared to their average.

My point is I think this is the first time more or most of the guys underperformed on the same night, including ALL of the main, key guys. If any one of Maceo, Hughes, Weathers or TDM had their average game it wouldn’t have been as close.

Everyone underperformed, which I believe can be attributed to a team grieving together. Hopefully moving forward, we don’t have a collective off night and I also hope we continue to see Norman’s trajectory trend upward.

Go Dukes!!!

I don't think we have much disagreement, except that when Carry plays well he elevates the play of those around him, and when he doesn't the team struggles.  He is the motor that makes the car go.  That is not my description, but Dambrot's.  That just doesn't only apply to scoring, but defensive intensity.  Everyone has off nights.  But again to my main point, the Dukes have a big opportunity starting with URI. To be successful Carry needs to play more like he did against SLU and Davidson, and not like he played against Marshall and Fordham.
 

Anyone else watching Dayton SLU? This has been an absolute slug fest. SLU up 1 2 mins left in OT.

Duques102 wrote:

Anyone else watching Dayton SLU? This has been an absolute slug fest. SLU up 1 2 mins left in OT.

Good result for the Dukes, IMO.

SLU doesn't get that huge signature win and had their crack at UD on their home floor. Dukes get their chance soon. Our 14 point win over SLU should get at least a little bump, metric wise with this game going OT. 

Amazing barrage of threes from Dayton to rally and pull that out. However, SLU showed that if you take the fight to them physically, you have more than a chance. Dayton seemed bothered by SLU's physicality on the boards and in the half court during the first half.  SLU's usual pathetic FT shooting burned them. With a 60 some percent effort, they probably still hang on to win despite the late flurry from deep by UD. Dayton's definitely tough to guard beyond Toppin with their shooting and constant movement side to side.

Brian wrote:

Duques102 wrote:

Anyone else watching Dayton SLU? This has been an absolute slug fest. SLU up 1 2 mins left in OT.

Good result for the Dukes, IMO.

SLU doesn't get that huge signature win and had their crack at UD on their home floor. Dukes get their chance soon. Our 14 point win over SLU should get at least a little bump, metric wise with this game going OT. 

Amazing barrage of threes from Dayton to rally and pull that out. However, SLU showed that if you take the fight to them physically, you have more than a chance. Dayton seemed bothered by SLU's physicality on the boards and in the half court during the first half.  SLU's usual pathetic FT shooting burned them. With a 60 some percent effort, they probably still hang on to win despite the late flurry from deep by UD. Dayton's definitely tough to guard beyond Toppin with their shooting and constant movement side to side.

Toppin did a great job staying in the game with 4 fouls, great points! Wasn’t sure if the result was good or bad for us.

For those who better understand the NCAA bracket projections, was a UD win better or worse for us? Had SLU won, I would think that would prop up our win over the Billikens significantly? Or would it negatively affect us because these bracketologists still have them ahead of us? Not sure...

Regarding tough to guard behind Toppin; Watson, Cohill, and Landers are all big time NCAA players. I hope/think we can get in the tourney this year, but Dayton has the pieces to go deep in the tourney.

Announcers said this was their highest ranking this late in the season since 60’ something.

Last edited by Duques102 (1/17/2020 10:30 pm)