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2:00pm EST tip on Saturday 01/25/2020 at the Mullins Center, Amherst, MA Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 100th in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament. Tre Mitchell doing well for UMASS. I think he was at Elizabeth Forward,then !st Love and ended up somewhere in the Northeast to finish up. They force turnovers and shoot the 3 fairly well. I'm surprised to see the numbers as close as they are. Yes UMass is at home, but I expect an easy Duquesne win tomorrow. I hope I'm right and am not just thinking with my heart. If they are good enough to be a Tournament or NIT team, they will win tomorrow. If not, well .... I expect another tough game. The Dukes have to get much better play out of their guards. Way too many turnovers, way too much dribbling and subpar shooting with questionable shot selection is a sure path to a loss. I expect a bounce back performance tomorrow. Emotion and discipline will be key; and I know it's tough to win on the road anywhere; but it really shouldn't even be close. Since starting with five cupcakes they are 2-12 with eight of those losses by double digits and four by 24+. The most recent of those blowout losses was at home against George Washington, a team we beat on their home floor. They've lost their last four by a combined 75 points. Our losses have seen some ugly offensive outputs, but we've been at our best when the defensive intensity is high. We're 3-3 when teams reach 65 points, 12-0 when they don't. They're 6-4 when they reach 65, 1-8 when they don't. I'm calling a 74-60 Dukes win. Last edited by luckymcd (1/24/2020 11:15 pm) Dukes should win handily based upon experience and talent. If they lose I would expect internal problems maybe brewing between players. I don’t however see signs of internal problems with this group of players. In 2020 the day & age of tough love by the head coach ended with Bobby Knight. Besides recruiting ,coaching ,and hiring competent staff the head coach needs a PHD in Pyschology. If the Dukes fall flat at UMASS “ We have a problem Houston” The Dukes have to get much better play out of their guards. Way too many turnovers, way too much dribbling and subpar shooting with questionable shot selection is a sure path to a loss. I expect a bounce back performance tomorrow. This says it all. IronDuke81, I agree that if the Dukes fall flat today we have a major problem. I also agree with the observation that the guard play just hasn't been good lately. As a friend of mine has pointed out to me, in college basketball your team is as good as your guards. Carry looks bigger to me as in more muscular and bulkier--just an observation but I don't know enough to know whether that would affect his play. Obviously it wouldn't affect his decision-making. Carry has to play up to potential for this team to succeed. He has the ability. Wow! You folks have great points...I just want to repeat what you all said...you people are brilliant!! Last edited by FAM (1/25/2020 11:53 am) We don’t deserve NIT if we lose with 11 games plus tournament still to come? Yeesh. Talk about fair weather and throwing in the towel early. kcc173 - Not exactly what I meant - I agree with you ...not throwing in the towel, just making a point if we are as "good" as we hope, we will win. Wasn't meant to be literal. Yes, we still have a way to go, but there has been "much" wonderful talk which hasn't been around for years that the way we were playing could get us to the NCAA. Same thing, if we lose and keep on this path we won't get to the NIT, though I am extremely hopeful! Go Dukes! Touché Fam. I guess I just get worn out with all the negativity directed at a 15-3 team. Kudos to the optimists and apology to you. Those were 12 awful minutes Wednesday but it happens. Maybe it should not but it does. Wow! You folks have great points...I just want to repeat what you all said...you people are brilliant!! How about blue? It is one of our colors after all? I would go with White -out! Wow! You folks have great points...I just want to repeat what you all said...you people are brilliant!! So true, how can anyone expect an easy win on the road? If we were lucky to beat Fordham at home then loosing at UMass would not shock. 67% chance of W seems about right. I do expect them to rebound though, just as after the two OOC losses Last edited by wharfrat (1/25/2020 2:36 pm) That was some ragged basketball. Not so good. I would go with White -out! I don't know, white isn't one of our colors. Rebounding totally abysmal. More careless passes resulting in turnovers and about 30% from the stripe! Any chance of having a good 2nd half? So suddenly we forget how to make foul shots? Ugh 2 points from the bench.
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Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
Per KenPom:
Dukes #89 (15-3; 5-1) vs University of Massachusetts Minutemen #206 (7-12; 1-5)
Game prediction: Dukes win by 5, 71-66 - Dukes with 67% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 5½ point favorites; Over/Under 138
Duquesne 8-10 Against the Spread; UMass 10-9 ATS
Dukes Best Win(s): Saint Louis (88); Davidson (93); Indiana State (124)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): UAB (186); Marshall (161)
UMass Best Win(s): Northeastern (130); La Salle (173); Rider (191)
UMass Worst Loss(es): George Washington (216); George Mason (155)
Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)
Here's a look at UMass for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (273)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (88)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (314)
Here's a look at UMass in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: FT Rate (4)
Offensive Weakness: Turnover % (13); Offensive Rebound % (11)
Defensive Strength: None
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (14)
Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Effective FG % (91)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: FT Rate (51); Effective FG % (55)
Defensive Weakness: None
Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: FT Rate (2); Effective FG % (3)
Offensive Weakness: Turnover % (11)
Defensive Strength: FT Rate (1); Effective FG % (4)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (13); Turnover % (13)
Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
UMass Adj Offense Efficiency - 100.9, #193 in D-1; 89.9, #11 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 94.9, #66 in D-1; 93.4, #5 in A-10
UMass Adj Defense Efficiency - 104.5, #233 in D-1; 105.9, #13 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.4, #147 in D-1; 99.4, #6 in A-10
UMass Adj Tempo - 69.9, #100 in D-1; 71.1, #2 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 67.4, #230 in D-1; 66.0, #10 in A-10
Miscellaneous
Experience - UMass 0.97 yrs, #342 in D-1; Dukes 1.40 yrs, #270 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - UMass 41.2%, #227 in D-1; Dukes 55.2%, #111 in D-1
Average Height - UMass 77.4", #100 in D-1; Dukes 76.0", #297 in D-1
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
UMass is 202nd in the country and OUT in the NCAA.
Automated Game Preview:
Overall Ratings: •
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It depends how well the team rebounded from the Rhody game.
It is winneable but we will have to play engaged and with emotion.
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PhoenixRising2 wrote:
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Hopefully the team bounces back strong today. I hope the players show some maturity and discipline. A convincing win could provide some momentum going into the Wednesday night game.
Go Duquesne!
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
-If we don’t win we don’t deserve to move ahead, get to NIT, etc.
-(rewording by me) : Coach needs to get a handle on Hughes, TDM, and maybe even Sincere as he is getting to be in the mix....tell them to get rid of the emotional pouts and outbursts or sit them 0n the bench - it will flow into more players if he doesn’t get a handle on this NOW!
-It scares me when so many folks “expect” a win - I don’t expect one but hope for one...not putting down those who do expect one.
Side Note: ??? A white out for Dayton would be nice - not a red out - they will have many fans there in red - Sure hope the DU office does something like this - I contacted them about it but didn’t hear back. Go Dukes!
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FAM wrote:
-If we don’t win we don’t deserve to move ahead, get to NIT, etc.
-(rewording by me) : Coach needs to get a handle on Hughes, TDM, and maybe even Sincere as he is getting to be in the mix....tell them to get rid of the emotional pouts and outbursts or sit them 0n the bench - it will flow into more players if he doesn’t get a handle on this NOW!
-It scares me when so many folks “expect” a win - I don’t expect one but hope for one...not putting down those who do expect one.
Side Note: ??? A white out for Dayton would be nice - not a red out - they will have many fans there in red - Sure hope the DU office does something like this - I contacted them about it but didn’t hear back. Go Dukes!
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
FAM wrote:
-If we don’t win we don’t deserve to move ahead, get to NIT, etc.
-(rewording by me) : Coach needs to get a handle on Hughes, TDM, and maybe even Sincere as he is getting to be in the mix....tell them to get rid of the emotional pouts and outbursts or sit them 0n the bench - it will flow into more players if he doesn’t get a handle on this NOW!
-It scares me when so many folks “expect” a win - I don’t expect one but hope for one...not putting down those who do expect one.
Side Note: ??? A white out for Dayton would be nice - not a red out - they will have many fans there in red - Sure hope the DU office does something like this - I contacted them about it but didn’t hear back. Go Dukes!
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
levon1975 wrote:
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IF they play like this against Dayton, the Flyers will be up by 40 at the half
Vicimus Atlanticum decem
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
How did we miss out on Tre Mitchell? Nice player
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Re: Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen
"Facts are stubborn things."
John Adams
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