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7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/29/2020 at the PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/29/2020 11:07 am) Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 108th in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament. Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 108th in the country; and OUT in the NCAA Tournament. Play loose, Dayton has everything to loose, Dukes don't. KD, use your Bigs and completely keep a Duke between Toppin and the basket all game. Box him out all 40 minutes. Play in the paint. Drive on him, get him to foul and in foul trouble. Do not chuck up dead 3's for Dayton to rebound and score easy points on transition. Don't let Steele out of the paint chucking mindless 3's. Play big and in the paint all game, then we upset Dayton. KD got the inside game, but in the second half of these past 4 games, the Dukes just quit on the inside? This game isn't a throwaway, it's a turning point. The best talent this team has is in the paint. So stay in the paint and win. Just saying. We will need a total team effort to beat them, but the big men especially need to bring their A game. There’s been two common links to the games they’ve lost or been taken to the brink. Toppin got in foul trouble and they got outrebounded, sometimes badly. We will need a total team effort to beat them, but the big men especially need to bring their A game. There’s been two common links to the games they’ve lost or been taken to the brink. Toppin got in foul trouble and they got outrebounded, sometimes badly. I have watched this Dayton team a few times. Toppin stands back about 8 feet and signals the ball handler to start the Ali-opp, then as everyone else watches the ball in the air, he times his approach and leap, then a "Sports Center" slam dunk. BUT, if we instead have a "Big" assigned to him, and just keeps them self between him and the basket,all 40 minutes, then he is nothing. Let him roam the court, and you can just forget about it. From what I have seen of Dayton, I think they are a level above all the teams in the A10. Doesn't mean we can't beat them if all the variables turn out to be in our favor, but that's what it will take in my opinion. We need to be close to perfect and they need to be imperfect. They are talented and deep - probably more talented and deep than any Dayton team in many years. From what I have seen of Dayton, I think they are a level above all the teams in the A10. Doesn't mean we can't beat them if all the variables turn out to be in our favor, but that's what it will take in my opinion. We need to be close to perfect and they need to be imperfect. They are talented and deep - probably more talented and deep than any Dayton team in many years. I'd go one step further and look at the A-10 as a whole and not just Dayton. It's the best A-10 team since at least Juan Fernandez' Temple team. Before that you'd have to consider Pops Mensah-Bonsu's GW team, Jameer Nelson's St. Joe's team, and David West's Xavier. I think I'd go all the way back to Marcus Camby and Coach Cal at UMass to find an A-10 team as good as this Dayton team. They can be beaten though. Sure they've only lost twice, and one of them was to a probable #1 seed in Kansas, but the other was to a Colorado team that lost to a mid-major in Northern Iowa and a mediocre Oregon State team. That isn't even taking into consideration that two teams we beat (Indiana State and St. Louis) gave them all they could handle. I think tomorrow's game is more about how we play than how they do. If we bring our A game we can definitely compete with them. If we play like we have over the last four games we'll lose by 20 or more. I don't think I can go as far as to predict a Duquesne win, but I do expect a close game. From what I have seen of Dayton, I think they are a level above all the teams in the A10. Doesn't mean we can't beat them if all the variables turn out to be in our favor, but that's what it will take in my opinion. We need to be close to perfect and they need to be imperfect. They are talented and deep - probably more talented and deep than any Dayton team in many years. I'd go one step further and look at the A-10 as a whole and not just Dayton. It's the best A-10 team since at least Juan Fernandez' Temple team. Before that you'd have to consider Pops Mensah-Bonsu's GW team, Jameer Nelson's St. Joe's team, and David West's Xavier. I think I'd go all the way back to Marcus Camby and Coach Cal at UMass to find an A-10 team as good as this Dayton team. They can be beaten though. Sure they've only lost twice, and one of them was to a probable #1 seed in Kansas, but the other was to a Colorado team that lost to a mid-major in Northern Iowa and a mediocre Oregon State team. That isn't even taking into consideration that two teams we beat (Indiana State and St. Louis) gave them all they could handle. I think tomorrow's game is more about how we play than how they do. If we bring our A game we can definitely compete with them. If we play like we have over the last four games we'll lose by 20 or more. I don't think I can go as far as to predict a Duquesne win, but I do expect a close game. Dayton is flying pretty high right now but may not surpass the successes of the 13-14 & 15-15 teams. The 13-14 team beat 5 Top 25 opponents (3 in the NCAAs) & made the Elite Eight. NapaDuke: Call DAMBROT today and let him know about the Alley OOPS signal!!! I wonder if any shirts or anything special will be done by our athletic department this evening to try to negate the huge turnout of Dayton fans that will be there? I hope they do something. I have watched this Dayton team a few times. Toppin stands back about 8 feet and signals the ball handler to start the Ali-opp, then as everyone else watches the ball in the air, he times his approach and leap, then a "Sports Center" slam dunk. BUT, if we instead have a "Big" assigned to him, and just keeps them self between him and the basket,all 40 minutes, then he is nothing. Let him roam the court, and you can just forget about it. Oh, is that all huh? I have watched this Dayton team a few times. Toppin stands back about 8 feet and signals the ball handler to start the Ali-opp, then as everyone else watches the ball in the air, he times his approach and leap, then a "Sports Center" slam dunk. BUT, if we instead have a "Big" assigned to him, and just keeps them self between him and the basket,all 40 minutes, then he is nothing. Let him roam the court, and you can just forget about it. Oh, is that all huh? The one game I watched, Toppin was feed at least six Ali-oops, like it 's a set play for this team. All of those dunks just brought the crowd to their feet and fired them up. Over and over. It's like the other team never got it. Don't get him in foul trouble early by working the paint, and don't put someone on him, then he is all we are going to see. Watch, each monster dunk he gets will fire up the Dayton fans like crazy. I have watched this Dayton team a few times. Toppin stands back about 8 feet and signals the ball handler to start the Ali-opp, then as everyone else watches the ball in the air, he times his approach and leap, then a "Sports Center" slam dunk. BUT, if we instead have a "Big" assigned to him, and just keeps them self between him and the basket,all 40 minutes, then he is nothing. Let him roam the court, and you can just forget about it. Oh, is that all huh? Number of Teams in the A-10 who have stopped Toppin this year: 0 Last edited by FAM (1/29/2020 10:58 am) I have watched this Dayton team a few times. Toppin stands back about 8 feet and signals the ball handler to start the Ali-opp, then as everyone else watches the ball in the air, he times his approach and leap, then a "Sports Center" slam dunk. BUT, if we instead have a "Big" assigned to him, and just keeps them self between him and the basket,all 40 minutes, then he is nothing. Let him roam the court, and you can just forget about it. Oh, is that all huh? The one game I watched, Toppin was feed at least six Ali-oops, like it 's a set play for this team. All of those dunks just brought the crowd to their feet and fired them up. Over and over. It's like the other team never got it. Don't get him in foul trouble early by working the paint, and don't put someone on him, then he is all we are going to see. Watch, each monster dunk he gets will fire up the Dayton fans like crazy. I didn't watch their last game against Richmond, but just read a write-up on the game. Toppin had 3 drunks in the first half alone and a windmill monster dunk in the second half and scored 25 points. His dunks are nearly half their offense. Number of Teams in the A-10 who have stopped Toppin this year: 0 McKeesport? LOL OK, great, we should limit Toppin's alley-oops. All good and well. But he's good a decent mid-range game, can make open 3s, and his ball-handling for a big is outstanding. Dynamite in transition. He's a lottery pick. Maybe a top-five guy. You have to limit what he does, but you can't completely deny him. Too much worries about him, and Crutcher, Watson or Landers (all 40+% from 3-point range) kill you. we pull this one out tonight, I would think a bus ticket to Erie would be in order. OK, great, we should limit Toppin's alley-oops. All good and well. But he's good a decent mid-range game, can make open 3s, and his ball-handling for a big is outstanding. Dynamite in transition. He's a lottery pick. Maybe a top-five guy. You have to limit what he does, but you can't completely deny him. Too much worries about him, and Crutcher, Watson or Landers (all 40+% from 3-point range) kill you. All the more reason to play our best. Our best is when we play in the paint, our worse is getting stuck on the perimeter. As for stopping Toppin, this dukes team has got to plan to stop someone on Dayton's team, and KD's team is built for an inside game. As for the 40 plus percent from 3's, this game for Dayton is on the road, it's possible those percents won't be as high. So, if the Dukes were to upset Dayton it's going to be in the paint and Dayton not having a good game at the 3's. This Dayton reminds me of the Lou Roe and Camby UMass team that came here back in 94? They ran up and down the court, threw dunks down all over us, their little guys were quick as cats. They scored over 100 I think. Tonight wont be like that, we have a chance, but Dayton just reminds me of that team from back then. Call in the Reverend from Hickory. It helped them beat the big bad team from South Bend. Almost the same challenge. Swarming Topin sounds good in theory, but will likely get our bigs in foul trouble. Swarming Toppin sounds good in theory, but will likely get our bigs in foul trouble. That's true, but if Toppin gets into foul trouble instead, then there is a better chance of winning this game. I remember back when Billy Clark played and R.I. would get him in foul trouble early, like that was part of their game plan. And even this last game up in R.I. when their center picked up two quick fouls and had to sit right away in the first half and the Dukes dominated the paint in the first half. I just wonder why we didn't go after that center in the second half to keep him out of the game. When key players have to sit, it changes the game. Obi might have top 5 talent & measurements but he is not likely to go that high becuase he will be more than 22.5 years old before playing his first NBA game. That is positively ancient by current NBA draft standards. One thing he does have working in his favor is that after Wiseman, there isn't much elite talent over 6'5" in this year's draft. If ever there were a team that warranted a junk defense or mixing of zones, this is it. Jalen Crutcher & Co. keep the floor spread nicely for Obi making teams pay for straight man to man.
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Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
Per KenPom:
Dukes #99 (15-4; 5-2) vs Dayton Flyers #5 (18-2; 7-0)
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 9, 75-66 - Dukes with 21% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 8½ point underdogs; Over/Under 137
Duquesne 8-11 Against the Spread; Dayton 12-7-1 ATS
Dukes Best Win(s): Saint Louis (86); Davidson (90); Indiana State (118)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): UAB (201); UMass (197); Marshall (161)
Dayton Best Win(s): Saint Mary's (34); VCU (43); North Texas (64)
Dayton Worst Loss(es): Colorado (20); Kansas (1)
Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)
Here's a look at Dayton for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Effective FG % (1)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (90); Turnover % (100)
Defensive Weakness: None
Here's a look at Dayton in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: Effective FG % (1)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (4)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (11)
Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: None
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (41); FT Rate (77)
Defensive Weakness: None
Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength: FT Rate (4)
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Effective FG % (2); FT Rate (2)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (14); Turnover % (13)
Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Dayton Adj Offense Efficiency - 119.5, #2 in D-1; 114.9, #1 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 95.8, #68 in D-1; 94.8, #5 in A-10
Dayton Adj Defense Efficiency - 93.8, #40 in D-1; 91.8, #3 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.4, #170 in D-1; 97.9, #8 in A-10
Dayton Adj Tempo - 68.8, #148 in D-1; 71.2, #2 in A-10 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 67.5, #223 in D-1; 66.8, #10 in A-10
Miscellaneous
Experience - Dayton 2.03 yrs, #65 in D-1; Dukes 1.40 yrs, #270 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - Dayton 63.4%, #53 in D-1; Dukes 55.3%, #114 in D-1
Average Height - Dayton 76.9", #172 in D-1; Dukes 75.9", #298 in D-1
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
Dayton is 6th in the country and a 3 seed in the NCAA.
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Dayton is 6th in the country and a 3 seed in the NCAA.
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
They’re the best team we’ve seen in-conference in some time, but they aren’t unbeatable. They aren’t a great defensive team. So if we can hold on to the ball and get back to the unselfish offense we saw early in the season we can put some points on the board. Hughes and Weathers need to step up, but we need five guys playing as one. No one player can beat a team as good as they are. I think the team will be hungry after two bad losses. Hopefully they got back to basics this week and no one tries to win the game themselves. Hopefully the fans show up and show they recognize how big a game it is too.
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
luckymcd wrote:
They’re the best team we’ve seen in-conference in some time, but they aren’t unbeatable. They aren’t a great defensive team. So if we can hold on to the ball and get back to the unselfish offense we saw early in the season we can put some points on the board. Hughes and Weathers need to step up, but we need five guys playing as one. No one player can beat a team as good as they are. I think the team will be hungry after two bad losses. Hopefully they got back to basics this week and no one tries to win the game themselves. Hopefully the fans show up and show they recognize how big a game it is too.
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Westender wrote:
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luckymcd wrote:Westender wrote:
That St Joe's team went 27-0, rated #1 in all the polls for more than a month, & missed the Final Four by a John Lucas III jump shot. Nelson was the Wooden Award winner & an NBA All-Star. Delonte West had better stats than Nelson that year & was an NBA starter for several strong playoff teams. Dwayne Jones was a beast who had a forgettable NBA career but did well internationally & now coaches for the 76ers. The fourth-best player on that team was Pat Carrol. He was the A-10 Player of the Year the next season. They were absolutely loaded. Even Martelli couldn't screw that crew up too badly.
David West's senior Xavier team was also loaded. He won some of the national player of the year awards, was 2 time NBA All-Star, & was a huge part of 2 Warriors championships. Lionel Chalmers & Romaine Sato were both drafted the following year. Neither ever caught on in the NBA but Sato went on to be one of the great Euro League players of his day. (I always loved that Sato grew up in Dayton but went to Xavier.)
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NapaDuke wrote:
I hate myself for loving you. Quoting me without the expressed written consent of the National Hockey League is prohibited.
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yak-rbc wrote:NapaDuke wrote:
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yak-rbc wrote:NapaDuke wrote:
That, and this....
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
Number of Times we have been to the NCAA in the last 20 years: 0
Number of Times C. DAMBROT has beaten a top ten team in the last 30 years: 0
Hmmm...I see a pattern.
If we win tonight I will buy everyone a bus ticket to McKeesport! Go Dukes - How about an upset win!!!
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NapaDuke wrote:yak-rbc wrote:NapaDuke wrote:
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FAM wrote:
Number of Times we have been to the NCAA in the last 20 years: 0
Number of Times C. DAMBROT has beaten a top ten team in the last 30 years: 0
Hmmm...I see a pattern.
If we win tonight I will buy everyone a bus ticket to McKeesport! Go Dukes - How about an upset win!!!
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Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers #7 (H)
Dayton is really, really, really good, and would be an NCAA tournament team without Toppin. We will have to play our best to beat them. But we can do it. Have to throw offensive wrinkles in to make Toppin work at that end. Can't make it easy on him. If Saint Joe's can stay close with them, we can beat them, especially on our home court.
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mjp1542 wrote:
Dayton is really, really, really good, and would be an NCAA tournament team without Toppin. We will have to play our best to beat them. But we can do it. Have to throw offensive wrinkles in to make Toppin work at that end. Can't make it easy on him. If Saint Joe's can stay close with them, we can beat them, especially on our home court.
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duq81 wrote:
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