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2/26/2021 5:11 pm  #1


Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

7:00pm EST tip on Saturday 02/27/2021 at the UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, Pittsburgh, PA
Dukes #125 KenPom / #148 NET (7-8; 6-7) vs Rhode Island Rams #83 KenPom / #98 NET (10-13; 7-9)
First Meeting at Rhode Island: Dukes 71-69

Game prediction: Dukes lose by 1, 67-66 - Dukes with 46% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are a Pick; Over/Under 134½
Duquesne 7-7 Against the Spread; Rhode Island 11-12 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Rhode Island (83); Dayton (85); UNC Greensboro (114)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): Little Rock (235); George Washington (197); La Salle (179)
Rhode Island Best Win(s): St. Bonaventure (41); Seton Hall (42); VCU (44)
Rhode Island Worst Loss(es): George Washington (197); Boston College (127); Duquesne (125)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Rhode Island for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  FT Rate (24)
Offensive Weakness:  None
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (40)
Defensive Weakness:  Turnover % (262)

Here's a look at Rhode Island in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (3); FT Rate (3)
Offensive Weakness:  Turnover % (14)
Defensive Strength:  FT Rate (2)  
Defensive Weakness:  None

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (91)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (280)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (72)
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (268)

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (4)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (12)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (2)
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (12)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Rhode Island Adj Offense Efficiency - 104.6, #138 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 97.1, #72 in D-1
Rhode Island Adj Defense Efficiency - 94.8, #49 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 102.1, #187 in D-1
Rhode Island Adj Tempo - 69.2, #135 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 68.5, #174 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - Rhode Island 1.90 yrs, #123 in D-1; Dukes 1.67 yrs, #209 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - Rhode Island 26.2%, #306 in D-1; Dukes 53.7%, #112 in D-1
Average Height - Rhode Island 76.4", #251 in D-1; Dukes 76.2", #270 in D-1

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 125th in the country.
Rhode Island is 102nd in the country.
Automated Game Preview: https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid2=4391&tid1=477&neut=0
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

 

2/26/2021 9:08 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

We are listed as one of RI worst losses...doesn't bode well for us playing again.  We need a flawless game from the guards and 3 point shooting to win.  Go Dukes!

 

2/27/2021 11:27 am  #3


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

They get to the line a lot, we foul a lot. They defend well, we don't shoot well. The matchup points to an ugly loss. Still our recent games have been battles. Our last two home games against them were not only wins, but giant comeback wins. We're coming off an ugly loss, but they have lost five of their last six. They are also 1-8 in away games this year including the loss to us. It's also senior day for a group of seniors who would give anything to the coaching staff. I'll say the emotions get the better of us in the first half and we fall behind. We roar back again in the second half, but the comeback falls just short this time. Dukes 67 Rams 69.

 

2/27/2021 12:11 pm  #4


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

The Over/Under on Technical fouls for the team (includes coaches, players, bench) is 1. 

 

2/27/2021 7:19 pm  #5


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

LaSalle loss doesn't look any better after they lose to Mason by 34.

 

2/27/2021 7:24 pm  #6


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Need to win this one to avoid USL in the first round. If the Dukes lose and USL wins tomorrow that's the situation. A Dukes win and it's most likely UMAss in first round.

 

2/27/2021 8:38 pm  #7


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Bekelja looked like T.J. on that drive.

 

2/27/2021 8:58 pm  #8


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Better get serious.

 

2/27/2021 8:58 pm  #9


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Team needs to learn how to put a team away especially come tourney time.

 

2/27/2021 9:08 pm  #10


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Nice win. Weathers was a beast. TDM great game. Everybody played well. Thinking either UMass or GMU in first round.

 

2/27/2021 9:09 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

WashPaRick wrote:

LaSalle loss doesn't look any better after they lose to Mason by 34.

It's impossible to measure the standard deviation of any team's performance, but let's just say that from game to game, any team can look great in one game and awful the next, or vice versa.

 

2/27/2021 9:11 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Starters score 82 out of the 86 points.

 

2/27/2021 9:40 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

It was nice to see Kelly get some minutes tonight.  We are going to need him next year.  I don't think Hughes or Weathers will be coming back.  Amari runs the floor and is athletic - he showed that with his great block tonight. 

 

2/27/2021 9:43 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

applecorps wrote:

WashPaRick wrote:

LaSalle loss doesn't look any better after they lose to Mason by 34.

It's impossible to measure the standard deviation of any team's performance, but let's just say that from game to game, any team can look great in one game and awful the next, or vice versa.

  I believe this team will be better now that they have their own home court for practice now and these Dukes shot very well on their new home court today. It could have been a different season if the Coop was ready sooner.


 

 

2/27/2021 9:50 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Dre Harris only 3 minutes tonight. Good to see Amari in there and looking athletic.
Weathers is the heart and soul of this year's Dukes!! Outstanding performance.

 

2/27/2021 10:20 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

I think you'll see this lineup and minutes come A-10 tourney time. This team could surprise if the seniors play like they did tonight. Can beat UMass, then you most likely get St. Bonnie or VCU. Can beat either of them if the Dukes play their A game. Don't give up on this year.

 

2/27/2021 10:36 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

I like that pull up jumper Okani has.   Its rare to see that these days.

 

2/28/2021 1:43 am  #18


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Practicing on the main floor definitely seems to have helped us. I hope we can continue to do so next year. If we can shoot like that we are tough to beat. I underestimated the seniors on senior night. They were not going to lose this game. Career games from Weathers and TDM, nothing remarkable from Hughes but 10 and 7 is nothing to complain about. Baker is truly a star in the making. I haven't watched enough other games to know, but I'd have to think he's at least in the running for freshman of the year. Unfortunately if it's a close race his attitude will probably keep him from getting it. Harris only getting 3 minutes after last game is baffling, but Kelly looked really good in that role. Once again the more Bekelja plays the better the team plays. I still don't have an explanation for it, but the more it happens the less likely it is it's a coincidence. Austin looked good even if it didn't show up in the box score. It's a shame we only got two games in the Coop, but hopefully this team shows up in Richmond (and hopefully also in Dayton) and we can pick up where we left off in the Coop next year.

 

2/28/2021 8:10 am  #19


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Rayrich wrote:

I think you'll see this lineup and minutes come A-10 tourney time. This team could surprise if the seniors play like they did tonight. Can beat UMass, then you most likely get St. Bonnie or VCU. Can beat either of them if the Dukes play their A game. Don't give up on this year.

Looks like Dayton more likely right now depending on the results today
 

 

2/28/2021 10:42 am  #20


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

I am very happy for the seniors. I am sure the memory of 2 nice wins to open The Coop will be a cherished one. I am particularly happy for TDM breaking out of his shooting slump.

I really hope Kelly is not another Dukes big ala Andre Marhold that can never catch the ball consistently. The physical tools are there. He was the beneficiary of some fine passing & muffed them all.

I realize that he is already 21 but, Baker is quite well rounded for a freshman. He affects the game in many positive ways. If KD has any commitment to discipline, he will at least sit Chad for the start of Thursday's game. Otherwise, he is just sending the message that as long as you are filling it up, you can do what you like.

Someone needs to tell KD that referring to Baker as, "Senor Loco" in 2021 is a recipe for disaster. This is shocking behavior for a man who nearly had his career ended by a previous lapse in judgment concerning such matters.

Before anybody attacks me for writing this, I am not raising this idea from any particular political conviction or because I equate the 2 occurrences. It's just that in today's world, a public figure is playing with fire speaking this way. This is exactly the sort of thing that gets raised in the future as public proof of systemic bias in a program. Even though I suspect the nickname comes from a place of affection and humor, it is still the height of foolishness & hubris to say this in an interview. This is not an example of KD being a straight-shooter with the media. It would have been 30 years ago but it isn't now.

 

2/28/2021 10:58 am  #21


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Coach seems open to the seniors coming back As for Baker I think it is an example of him being a straight-shooter with the media. 

 

2/28/2021 10:59 am  #22


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

luckymcd wrote:

Practicing on the main floor definitely seems to have helped us. I hope we can continue to do so next year. If we can shoot like that we are tough to beat. I underestimated the seniors on senior night. They were not going to lose this game. Career games from Weathers and TDM, nothing remarkable from Hughes but 10 and 7 is nothing to complain about. Baker is truly a star in the making. I haven't watched enough other games to know, but I'd have to think he's at least in the running for freshman of the year. Unfortunately if it's a close race his attitude will probably keep him from getting it. Harris only getting 3 minutes after last game is baffling, but Kelly looked really good in that role. Once again the more Bekelja plays the better the team plays. I still don't have an explanation for it, but the more it happens the less likely it is it's a coincidence. Austin looked good even if it didn't show up in the box score. It's a shame we only got two games in the Coop, but hopefully this team shows up in Richmond (and hopefully also in Dayton) and we can pick up where we left off in the Coop next year.

Bekekja beat the press and dribbled through a trap on the way to a bucket. To me, he is a good ball handler with good court vision. Likely, someone to set up the offense and get the ball to the open man.  

 

2/28/2021 11:49 am  #23


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

Rayrich wrote:

Looks like Dayton more likely right now depending on the results today
 

That's right. We are the 9 seed right now and Dayton the 8. We can't move down in the standings because only St. Joe's is behind us and still playing. They're far enough back that they can't jump us even with a win. That much is pretty simple, but now is where it gets complicated.

We are the only team at .500, but St. Louis and Dayton would join us if they lose. Dayton has the head to head tiebreaker over us because of common opponents. They would be 0-1 against top seed St. Bonaventure to our 0-2. If that isn't considered because neither of us beat them, it would reach Davidson to find a team one of us beat. They did, we didn't, so they would still have the tiebreaker.

St. Louis has the two team tiebreaker over us too because they beat the Bonnies. If both teams lose and fall to .500 Dayton would have the tiebreaker because of their sweep of St. Louis and split with us. We would finish above St. Louis though because our 1-1 would be better than their 0-2 against the three team group. So then Dayton would be the 7, us the 8, and St. Louis the 9.

So we'll be playing in the 8/9 game no matter what happens with the three remaining games. Our opponent is Dayton as of now. Let's assume St. Joe's doesn't pull off the monumental upset over Richmond to simplify things. Then the only game that matters to us is St. Louis / U Mass. If St. Louis wins, Dayton is the 8 seed and plays us no matter what the Flyers do. If St. Louis loses Dayton is the 7 seed and we face St. Louis no matter what the Flyers do. The only difference then would be who is the 8 and who is the 9.

The good news is in what I consider the most likely scenario, we will avoid all three home teams. We can only be the 8 or 9 seed, so we'll be on the top of the bracket no matter what. VCU is locked in as the 2 seed, so they will be on the bottom of the bracket no matter what. If St. Bonaventure, St. Louis, and Richmond win, Richmond will be the 3 seed and also on the bottom of the bracket. So we wouldn't be able to meet VCU or Richmond before the final, which of course will be in Dayton. Dayton would be the 8 seed, so we'd play them in Richmond. We know we can beat the Flyers because we already did. Then we'd get the Bonnies. They swept us, but we can definitely compete with them. The bracket is setting up pretty good for us. Our chances are much better than a typical 9 seed if we play the way we have recently with the exception of the La Salle game.

 

2/28/2021 1:22 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

So if the home teams hold serve tomorrow, as I think they will, we're looking at a rubber match with Dayton Thursday, then Bonaventure Friday. I suppose Dayton's winnable, but Bonaventure on four days rest vs us on the second half of a back-to-back? Tall order the way they're playing right now.

Agree with Napa that Bekelja looked like a true PG last night for really the first time. I've always seen him as more of an undersized 2 playing a smart cog-in-the-wheel role, but never really the primary ball-handler. Last night he was a level above that. Is he the answer at the point? Well not so fast. Rhode Island didn't really play much defense last night. The Providence newspaper had it as their worst defensive performance of the year (by points allowed per possession), their coach faulted them for losing one-on-one battles the whole game. Say what you want about LaSalle but they made us work for every bucket last Wednesday. Rhode Island really didn't. This was a late addition to the schedule and kind of an odd one, forcing them to make a second trip to Pittsburgh, which of course never happens in a normal season. I wonder, did they fly or have to make the 9-hour bus trip because of Covid protocols? In any case, they didn't look like a team that had a whole lot of interest in playing the game. Fatts did his thing, but I'd say their overall effort was a bit lacking, especially on the defensive end.

What are Weathers' chances of making first-team all-conference?

 

 

2/28/2021 1:43 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - Rhode Island Rams (H)

I found this replay for those DU fans who did not see the game, and do not have ESPN+ 



 

 

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