CLK  -  17 wins 
duq81 -  18 wins 
WEB  -  18 wins 
rogabee  -  16 wins 
FAM  - 15 wins 
El Duque - 10 wins  (Eliminated)
Applecorps - 18 wins 
Grammudder - 18 wins
scduke  -  18 wins 
Econ69  - 14 wins 
WashPaRick  - 15 wins
Simms  -  16 wins 
Dome  -  13 wins   (offering one million to one against 
SteelCityVoice  - 19 wins
VBC  -  20 wins 
duqkurt  - 13 wins   (also one million to one against
rosceaux  - 17 wins 
Tejas Duke  -  17 wins
Phildog  -  16 wins
Heels fan - 16 wins
KenOTH73 - 17 wins
Phoenix - 15 wins    
 
Odds from here on out:  Regular Season only
 
13 wins:  See above 
 
14 wins:   Beat two bottom feeders and that’s it.
 
15 wins:  Wow, they could actually achieve this before February, just beat three bottom feeders, La Salle, Mason and St. Louis.
 
16 wins: Add a Fordham or U Mass win. 
 
17 wins:  Steal one against Rhode Island, Richmond or Davidson (rematch, this time at home)
 
18 wins:  The air is starting to get a bit thin now:  Upset GW here, or VCU, Dayton, St. Joe’s or the Bonnies on the road.
 
19 wins:  Will need two of those big upsets and avoid any hiccups against lesser opponents, and past history and law of averages, plus the usual Duquesne crappy karma makes this unlikely in my view.
 
20 wins:    No way around it we will have to win three road games against very good or excellent teams. There is always hope.
 
So with that in mind: I offer:
 
Worst Case Scenario:  15 Wins (5%):  Three wins against three bottom feeders:  I believe this scenario would have to involve some seriously awful circumstances:  Mason and Coulter both getting injured, suspensions, coaching staff implodes, academic scandal etc.
 
16 to 17 wins:  50%:  6 or 7 league wins, pulling no big upsets. Just winning 5 home games puts them in this ball park.
 
18 to 19 wins:  40%:  Still cautious here. This is Duquesne hoops after all. 
 
20 Wins:  (5%)  A lot of things would have to go right here.
 

Tejas technically the Seton Hill game doesn't count since it's a non D1 opponent. Our record is 13-7. 😧😧😧

Tejas_Duke wrote:

The Dome wrote:

Tejas technically the Seton Hill game doesn't count since it's a non D1 opponent. Our record is 13-7. 😧😧😧

It says 14 on the web site. That is what I am going by  :-)
 

Doesn't count for rpi. Counts as a regular season game however. Win total is officially 14.

SLU will be a tough game but if we pull out a win there and drop Fordham and umass at home that's 17.

Updated Probabilities after the LaSalle game

Worst Case Scenario:  15 Wins (1%):  Not taking this completely off the board. I can still forsee a sitatuation where Duquesne becomes Duquesne and they go 1-9 down the stretch. They should be able to win at least two from Fordham, U Mass, Mason, and slightly better Rhode Island, Richmond and improving St. Louis.
 
16 wins  (10%):  Only win the two mentioned above and stumble down the stretch, disappointing and, in my view highly unlikely.
 
17 to 18 wins  (60%):  Take 4 of 6 above or split and steal a win at Bonnies or St. Joes. Much as it pains me I think this is the most likely outcome at this point.  Dukes have not shown they can win on the road.

19 wins (20%);  Dominate the winnable games from above. 5-1 puts them at 19, without even any upsets. I can't help but think they will have a bad "oops" with one of the bottom feeders and only  win 4, plus an upset
 
20 Wins:  (10%)  I could very well see a magic number of six with winnable games and one or two upsets. I can see it, but don't have much confidence in it, yet.

21+ Wins (4%):  7 and 3 is a tall order for this improving team, but I like the fact that they have slightly better odds to do this than only win one more all season.
 

Last edited by Tejas_Duke (1/27/2016 3:11 pm)

TD:  
Just for the record, I changed my prediction to 20 wins and gave my reasons for my change after I saw the Red-Blue Scrimmage.  

Last edited by grammudder (1/31/2016 1:20 am)

Tejas, maybe I should have taken you up on your odds.

Tejas_Duke wrote:

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Tejas, maybe I should have taken you up on your odds.

Yeah I don't think any of us dreamed it would be this bad, at this point!  Can't believe that after that start, they just pissed away three games that should have been wins, in addition to losing a few that, only the most pie in the sky fans would have predicted. Sad, really sad.
 

Tejas, I want to change my 17 win prediction to 16 unless the pools are closed...