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11/29/2018 12:52 am  #1


Some KenPom Tidbits

• Dukes are ranked #152 in the country; 8th in the A10.  Last year, our highest ranking was #161 (after we went 3-0 to open up the A-10 schedule).
• Last time Dukes were in the top 100 was in Ron Everhart's final season - back in 2012.
• KD referenced this in one of his press conferences: Dukes are #343 in experience (out of 353 teams)
• Dukes are #314 in minutes continuity (what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by the same player from last season to this season); EW and ML are keeping the Dukes' afloat in this stat.
• No surprise here, but the Dukes are #47 in bench minutes.
• This one did surprise me:  the Dukes are #313 in Average Height. Even with all of the height on this team, KD has played a lot with 3 guards and EW on the floor; mentioned that today in his informal reporter chat that he's made a commitment to get the young bigs more time on the court.
• Strength of schedule is at #242; last year our non-conference was at #350
• A10 has fallen to the 12th rated conference; now behind the M's (Mountain West, MAC and Missouri Valley)
• KenPom has projected that the Dukes will finish 18-13; 9-9 in the conference.  Let's beat Pitt and see the numbers change.  Let's go Dukes!
 

 

11/29/2018 12:15 pm  #2


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

I'll post these here since they seem to fit for now

NET - Duquesne is ranked 35th, 1st in the conference

Sagarin - 146th, 8th


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12/06/2018 3:13 pm  #3


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

I'll post an update to the rankings

KenPom | Sagarin | NET (rank within A10 in parantheses)

156 (9) | 157 (9) | 113 (5)


NET has seemed to sort itself out in general and resembles much more closely what people would think is a decent ranking of programs


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12/06/2018 8:41 pm  #4


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc wrote:

I'll post an update to the rankings

KenPom | Sagarin | NET (rank within A10 in parantheses)

156 (9) | 157 (9) | 113 (5)


NET has seemed to sort itself out in general and resembles much more closely what people would think is a decent ranking of programs

Kenpom and Sagarin are still garbage for now, too heavily influenced by last year, and preseason predictions. Check back in January. NET actually looks just about right.

 

12/17/2018 12:52 pm  #5


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Update:

153 (9) | 153 (8) | 128 (7)

Not a whole lot of movement from last time (after the Marshall game) as we beat a few teams as we expected. Not too many crap teams left on the schedule.

PSU 43, 60, 86
EKU 254, 244,199
NJIT 192, 206, 166


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1/08/2019 11:55 am  #6


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

KenPom, Sagarin, net

174 (9) | 176 (10) | 157 (7)

Kinda took a hit with 3 losses since my last post on this matter.

Fordham is 218, 225, 215
SJU is 146, 133, 159.

What the hell happened on Hawk Hill last week? They were picked 2nd in the preseason and now they're staring down the barrel of being 1-5 to start the season


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1/08/2019 4:23 pm  #7


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc wrote:

KenPom, Sagarin, net

174 (9) | 176 (10) | 157 (7)

Kinda took a hit with 3 losses since my last post on this matter.

Fordham is 218, 225, 215
SJU is 146, 133, 159.

What the hell happened on Hawk Hill last week? They were picked 2nd in the preseason and now they're staring down the barrel of being 1-5 to start the season

It's been a disaster for St. Joe's, and for George Mason as well. Both were considered strong contenders coming into the season. UMass was seen as a darkhorse, and has struggled as well. Bona was expected to take a step back, but the step back has been a bit bigger than most thought. The negativity on the St. Joe's board is reaching Ferry/Stallings levels.

 

1/15/2019 11:38 am  #8


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

KenPom | Sagarin | NET

180 (10) | 175 (10) | 160 (7)

Not getting a lot of love in the metrics this week. Whatever.

As for the landmines the team will be visiting this week...

UR 190, 183, 210 (11th in all metrics)
GW 274, 242, 279 (last in all metrics)


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1/21/2019 2:09 pm  #9


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

163 (8) | 164 (9) | 148 (7)

SLU 91, 89, 67 (4th, 4th, 2nd)
VCU 55, 61, 51 (1st in all metrics)

The top half of the league has really set itself apart from the other 7 teams in the A10, and Duquesne is clearly belonging in the top 7 at this point.. A fair criticism of Dambrot's tenure is that he has yet to get the 'marquee' win against a top 125 team. We've got 2 golden opportunities at home against the best this league has to offer. Let's show em what we got


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1/21/2019 2:18 pm  #10


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Awesome!!!  Thanks - Love the Stats.  Does anyone know if Taylor is still on the team?

 

1/21/2019 2:28 pm  #11


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc wrote:

163 (8) | 164 (9) | 148 (7)

SLU 91, 89, 67 (4th, 4th, 2nd)
VCU 55, 61, 51 (1st in all metrics)

The top half of the league has really set itself apart from the other 7 teams in the A10, and Duquesne is clearly belonging in the top 7 at this point.. A fair criticism of Dambrot's tenure is that he has yet to get the 'marquee' win against a top 125 team. We've got 2 golden opportunities at home against the best this league has to offer. Let's show em what we got

3 if you count URI, they might not be statistically as high, but they carry street cred from last year.  Any or all of these next 3 would be quality wins IMO.

 

1/28/2019 3:30 pm  #12


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

172 (8) | 167 (9)| 157 (7)

URI 123 (6) | 116 (5) | 128 (5)
UD 67 (2) | 81 (3)| 97 (4)

There are some massive matchups coming up on Saturday. SLU is in Rhode Island and GMU heads to VCU, not to mention our drive to Dayton. Also, Davidson in Olean on Friday could be a doozy.


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2/06/2019 11:49 am  #13


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

KenPom | Sagarin | NET

161(8) | 156(7) | 153 (7)

Upcoming opponents:

Bonnies 155(7) | 161 (9) | 160 (8)
Fordham 246 (13) | 251(14) | 242 (14)

Bonnies are essentially our equal according to computers which makes sense as today's KenPom line implies a coin flip on a neutral court.

Also, there's a fun thread on Dayton's forum about statistical probabilities of where each team finishes the regular season.

Before last night's games, Duquesne had an average seed of 5.55 with a 22.8% chance of grabbing a double-bye. Wondering how much it improved after Dayton got thumped last night


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2/06/2019 1:56 pm  #14


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc, thanks for pulling this stuff out for us.  I appreciate it.

I made a mention in another thread on the weakness of the A-10 this year, but it does qualify as a KenPom tidbit.  KenPom has the A-10 as the 12th best conference; behind the West Coast Conference, MAC, Southern Conference and Ivy League.  And the Mountain West is really close behind the A-10.

     Thread Starter
 

2/06/2019 2:33 pm  #15


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

I'm a little bit surprised that the Ivy is ahead and MW is behind, but yeah that makes sense. SoCon, the MAC and WCC are deeeep. There's a lot of teams in those conferences this year that would give just about everyone in the A10 problems, not just the headliners in Gonzaga and Buffalo. In a just world, they would be multiple-bid conferences this year


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2/06/2019 2:46 pm  #16


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Totally agree. My son goes to Kent State so I follow the MAC closely.
Try to make it out there for games when I can.
Toledo and Bowling Green are having excellent seasons.
Kent State has beaten Oregon St. and Vanderbilt on the road.
I saw Kent give Buffalo all they could handle a few weeks ago.
 


"Facts are stubborn things."
                                 John Adams
 

2/06/2019 2:56 pm  #17


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc wrote:

I'm a little bit surprised that the Ivy is ahead and MW is behind, but yeah that makes sense. SoCon, the MAC and WCC are deeeep. There's a lot of teams in those conferences this year that would give just about everyone in the A10 problems, not just the headliners in Gonzaga and Buffalo. In a just world, they would be multiple-bid conferences this year

My guess is less teams in the Ivy and no one in the Ivy is truly terrible while Wyoming and San Jose St are really poor. The Big 12 seems to consistently come out on top in the conference rankings (currently 2nd this year and 1st the last 5) in part by having 10 teams play double round robin and no dregs, at least ranking wise, amongst them.

As for the SoCon: Seems like a long time ago when Furman was ranked on the backs of their wins at Loyola Chicago and Villanova. Now, it's like they are yesterday's news as the 4th best team behind Wofford, UNCG & ETSU. Wofford is having an outstanding season and a lofty ranking behind an offense in conference that seemingly can't do anything wrong.

 

2/21/2019 3:32 pm  #18


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

KenPom | Sagarin | NET
158 (7) | 152 (8) | 163 (8)

Odds for seeding

13.37% for top 4.
32.86% chance of finishing 7th, the highest chance of any seed. Average seed is 6.08.


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2/24/2019 5:02 pm  #19


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

A tweet from A10 Talk:

This is an incredible stat via Kenpom: Duquesne has had minimum win probabilities of 9.8%, 2.1%, 6.5%, 4.5%, 3.1%, and 4.6% at various points throughout the season and came back to win all of those games. The chances of that are smaller than 1 in 100,000,000. Keith Dambrot, folks

https://twitter.com/a10talk/status/1099771392151695361

     Thread Starter
 

2/24/2019 6:52 pm  #20


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Time to buy a few MegaMillions Tix!

 

2/25/2019 3:14 pm  #21


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Average seed is now 5.35.
Chance of top 4 is now 26.9%
Highest odds of a seed is 5th at 26.87% but there is a greater than 20% chance each of finishing 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th.

156 (7) | 149 (8) | 162 (8)

This is our highest KenPom ranking since before Penn State and our highest Sagarin rating since November

There is a 63% chance we finish the regular season (before A10 tournament) with at least 20 wins which hasn't been done at Duquesne, by my count, since 1972


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2/28/2019 10:56 am  #22


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Woof.

Average seed 6.15.
Top 4 probability 4.59%
Highest probability of seed if 7th at 36.8%


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2/28/2019 11:41 am  #23


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

yak-rbc wrote:

Woof.

Average seed 6.15.
Top 4 probability 4.59%
Highest probability of seed if 7th at 36.8%

I can live with the 7th seed as a stepping stone. Next year we are Top 4
 


Victi sumus Richmond!!!!
Nunc Bonnies delenda est!!!!!
 

3/04/2019 5:13 pm  #24


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

Alright, things got really weird this week. Blame tiebreakers.

Average seed: 5.91.
Probability of top 4, 7.28%
Highest seed probability: 7th (38.69%).

Im stealing all these numbers from UDPride (the Dayton board) and there's some super odd quirks.

For example we are 5th in the A10, but if we win out the lowest we can finish is... 6th

St Louis has a 20% chance of being top 4, higher than Mason, Bonnies and Duquesne, despite being behind all of them.

BTW still a greater than 50% chance of winning at least 1 more game in the regular season


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3/06/2019 1:12 pm  #25


Re: Some KenPom Tidbits

An update after Mason lost to VCU last night

Average seed: 5.80
Probability of top 4: 6.53%
Highest seed probability: 5th (36.05%)

Mason's loss improved our chances of finishing 5th and worsened our chances of finishing 7th, but actually made it harder to finish top 4 due to tiebreakers

At least winning out guarantees top 5 now

Last edited by yak-rbc (3/06/2019 1:15 pm)


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