So the men's tourney gets moved up a week with the championship game still on the 14th. Interesting formula for seeding:

Also approved is the seeding policy for both the men’s and women’s basketball for the 2021 championships. Teams above 60 percent of the median number of conference games played by all 14 teams will be seeded by conference winning percentage. Teams below that 60 percent threshold will be seeded using the NCAA NET ranking, relative to all A-10 teams. Additionally, teams below the 60 percent threshold will not be eligible for the regular season title.

I'll take a stab at it. Rhode Island has the most conference games played-15. GW has the fewest-5. So the current median conference games played would be 10. All but St. Louis and GW are more than 60% above this median right now, as 60% of 10 is 6, so you need to have played at least 7 games to be seeded by winning percentage. Since St. Louis falls below this threshold, they would be seated by NET rating, making them the second seed, as only VCU is ahead of them by NET rating, rather than 5th seed by winning percentage. GW would also be seeded by NET rating rather than winning percentage, which would drop them to the 12th seed from their current 9th spot, as they are ahead of only St. Joe's and Fordham in NET rating  As for the Dukes, we would remain the 7th seed as things stand now. The median number of games played will of course increase over the next week+, but we should remain seeded by winning percentage. I think that's accurate. Anyone else have a different understanding/interpretation?

Last edited by DennisC91 (2/19/2021 3:09 pm)

levon1975 wrote:

Good explanation Dennis.  In my opinion this is a direct attempt to rescue St Louis from their A-10 struggles after emerging from Covid shutdown.  They quickly lost two games and have a winnable game at Dayton tonight, but I guess the A10 doesn't want to bruise St. Louis' ego  by seeding then according to their record, so they came up with this plan to guarantee them a high seed and basically de-emphasizing their performance on the court.  

St Louis and VCU look to be in good positions to make the NCAA as long as they play Ok down the stretch and in the A10 tournament.  I don't know that the A10 gets a third team unless someone else wins the league tourney.

I think the opposite is actually true. I think they set the threshold so low so that as few teams as possible end up using it. In the end I think only GW will end up falling short of 60 percent of median and end up using the NET rankings. As for the tournament, I agree with your analysis. There are a few A-10 teams on the bubble, but only St. Louis and VCU have at-large resumes at this point.

DennisC91 wrote:

So the men's tourney gets moved up a week with the championship game still on the 14th. Interesting formula for seeding:

Also approved is the seeding policy for both the men’s and women’s basketball for the 2021 championships. Teams above 60 percent of the median number of conference games played by all 14 teams will be seeded by conference winning percentage. Teams below that 60 percent threshold will be seeded using the NCAA NET ranking, relative to all A-10 teams. Additionally, teams below the 60 percent threshold will not be eligible for the regular season title.

To make this WHOLE PROCESS MORE CONFUSING (and perhaps to screw a school like DU)  A MEDIAN is NOT AN AVERAGE --  Rather it reflects where there are an equal number of teams above a given number and an equal number of teams below a given number -  take the following sequence 1,2,3,9,10 -  The median would be 3 not 5.

Might not really make ANY DIFFERENCE for Anybody when dealing with a 60% rate but who knows season is crazy enough.
 

SkepticAl wrote:

To make this WHOLE PROCESS MORE CONFUSING (and perhaps to screw a school like DU)  A MEDIAN is NOT AN AVERAGE --  Rather it reflects where there are an equal number of teams above a given number and an equal number of teams below a given number -  take the following sequence 1,2,3,9,10 -  The median would be 3 not 5.

Might not really make ANY DIFFERENCE for Anybody when dealing with a 60% rate but who knows season is crazy enough.
 

You're right, Al, I did not calculate the median correctly, as it's not the average of the highest and lowest numbers in the sequence, but the middle number in the sequence, or in the case of an even-number sequence, the average of the two middle numbers. So right now as I write this, the median number of conference games played is 11 (the 7th and 8th numbers in the list of conference games played for each team from lowest to highest), not 10, though still need to play at least 7 games to get over the 60% of the median number. 
 

With Dayton whipping SLU, Mason upsetting VCU, & SBU beating Davidson over the last few days, the conference race has tightened & the chances for 2 at-large bids from the A-10 have) diminished.

If the schedule I just read is accurate, starting today SBU will play 4 games in 8 days. This includes a back to back beginning @ Davidson on Wednesday followed by a home game back in Olean on Thursday. Then they get Dayton @ home Monday 3/1.

A back to back, having to beat Davidson twice in 4 days, & wrapping up that long week with Dayton is pretty crazy. If they can run the table over this stretch, they definitely deserve an at-large whether they win a conference tournament game or not.

That will be quite challenging. It sure demonstrates the lengths to which the conference has gone this season to showcase/boost their leading teams.