KenOTR73 wrote:

Duquesne 79 Slippery Rock 54. Lady Dukes are 10-1. Not sure how strong the A-10 is this year but, maybe, finally, we go to the Dance!!

Quick notes on the A-10 and the Dukes ability to reach the NCAAs...
So far, the OOC winning percentage is at 58.5%.  That is consistent with where it has been at a two bid league, and an occasional third bid "thief" in the tourney.   However, the slate for the A-10 gets harder, so that number may not stay there, knocking the number of potential bids down.  Overall, right now it looks like a 2 bid league, depending on how the committee views UD in light of Austria's injury.

Also, I started looking at bracketology for the other site, and it's the strongest I've seen bubble teams at this point in December in a long time.  DU picked a difficult year thus far to have their strongest resume-to-date outside of the team that won at tOSU.

My educated guess on RPI finishes -
The A10 will finish with three top 50 RPI teams.  Dayton will be one of those three, and the Dukes will get them twice.  GW will also finish top 50, and the Dukes get them at home.
The A10 will finish with seven top 100 RPI teams.  DU will get nine games against those teams.

So there's plenty of chances for top 50 and top 100 wins out there.  There may not be any for top 25 wins, however, which is what makes the St. John's game VERY important.  If Dayton does finish top 25, that may even look tainted and be dismissed as only top 50.

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Quick thoughts, team-by-team.  They are in order of my current power rankings.
Dayton - Very good team, would be a top 15-20 team with Austria.  With her ACL tear in the Toledo game, probably more like borderline top 50.  We'll see how the committee views those games also, as the Flyers are currently 0-2 without her in the lineup.
GW - excellent team who has underperformed OOC some.  They have a potential top 5 player in the country in their center Jonquel Jones and some very athletic guards around her.  The OT win over Iowa looks nice, but losses to both Wright State and FGCU don't help.  A loss at Stanford is irrelevant.
St Bona - After a slow start to the year, have looked like a top-tier A-10 team their last three games, beating an excellent James Madison team that should finish in the top 50, blowing out Buffalo, then beating Penn State.  Top four of Healy (a possible A10 first teamer), Reuter, Drummond, and Ruff are solid.  If you can get a big four in the A10 and have Bona's homecourt advantage, you can easily threaten for a top 4 seed, perhaps more.
VCU - Athletic team that has been up and down.  Win at a ranked Arizona State team, lose at IUPUI and get blown out by a then 1-6 Toledo team.
St Joe's - Excellent team who is being underappreciated at 4-4 due to their hard schedule.  Fairbanks and Andrews are both excellent players.  Will give A10 teams fits and definitely a team to look out for in the A10 tourney as they're built for the three games in three days type of success.
St Louis - Gaudy 7-1 record, but haven't beaten anyone.  I'm still in wait-and-see mode as I don't think they're that good.
Richmond - How I hate this game on the road.  Their current resume doesn't look good, but the women have the same struggles against Richmond in the Robins Center the men do. 
URI - Last year's A10 darling has come back to earth.
Davidson - Doesn't have the horses yet for A-10 play.
Fordham - Complete rebuilding year.  They can be afforded that after their recent successes though (26-25-21 wins last three years).
George Mason - See Davidson.
UMass- It's been since before I started following A10 women's hoops that the Minutemen were good.
La Salle - Perhaps the worst A-10 team in a long while, rivaling the URI and UMass awful teams.  Just got blown out 60-29 by UMBC and has their only win by 3 at Howard.
 

KenOTR73 wrote:

Thanks rogabee. '81, that is an excellent point...

Thanks for your excellent analysis of the road the Dukes will face as they wrap up the non-conference schedule and take on the A-10 foes, opening with a very tough Dayton team at home on national TV.  As St. John's is currently ranked #25 in the AP Poll and has an excellent RPI of 22, they provide the ideal opponent for the Dukes to enhance their chances for the NCAA tournament with a victory on Saturday.  By the way, the Dukes will play St. John's in NYC next year.  Perhaps this might develop into more than a two-game series in the future.

I really like this team and believe that the Dukes can beat St. John's.  Let's hope that the April's scoring drought against Slippery Rock was an anomaly, and she will bd able to nail a few 3s early in the game.  Even going pointless against the Rock, she still distruted the ball to her teammates to maintain her average number of assists per game.  Deva'Nyar's surname truly describes her play on the court.  When she's on, good things happen.  She can hit the three, rebound against much taller forwards, and score with put-backs from under the basket.  The Dukes may have two of of the top five best freshmen in the A-10 in Chassidy and Kadri-Ann.  Amadea has some mighty sweet moves under the basket and has the highest average number of rebounds on the team.  Senior Emile Gronas is the third of the Dukes' starting guards who can cosistently hit the three.  This team wants to be the first one in program history to get to the NCAA  post-season tournament, and they seem to have the confidence to win against any opponent they face on their schedule. 

Coach Dan and his assistant coaches will definitely have the Dukes well prepared for this game.

GO DUKES!

Last edited by godukes1970 (12/17/2015 11:44 pm)