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Pomeroy' Preseason analysis (www.kenpom.com) has the Dukes at #168 in the country, finishing 12th in the A-10 with a 6-12 Conference Record. Also predicting a 9-4 OOC record which would give the Dukes a 15-16 record going into the A-10 tourney. The above records are adjusted based on probability of a win; and there are 4 or 5 toss up games. 3 A10 teams in front of Pitt in rankings....interesting. 3 A10 teams in front of Pitt in rankings....interesting. Not really. Pitt is considered to be a bubble team at best by most prognosticators. As for schedule strength, it won't come into play unless we do well enough to be in the running for an NIT bid or better. The other 3 tourneys don't really care about your power ranking, you just need a decent record, and a willingness to pay their entry fee. A 10 teams with a winning record will always be considered. 3 A10 teams in front of Pitt in rankings....interesting. Not really. Pitt is considered to be a bubble team at best by most prognosticators. As for schedule strength, it won't come into play unless we do well enough to be in the running for an NIT bid or better. The other 3 tourneys don't really care about your power ranking, you just need a decent record, and a willingness to pay their entry fee. A 10 teams with a winning record will always be considered. Notre Dame was preseason number 9 too. Neglected to mention that Pomeroy has the Atlantic 10 as the 7th toughest conference. Here's the ranking of the top half of the conferences:
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Pomeroy Preseason Predictions
On a game by game match up basis, Pomeroy has the Dukes winning 10 in non-conference and 3 in conference (home wins against STL, UMass and Fordham).
Pomeroy is projecting that the Dukes will have the worst defensive efficiency in the A-10 and the 10th most efficient offense.
Our non-conference schedule has one big issue - we do not play any teams that are ranked from 100 to 200. The Dukes can't afford to lose any games to these 200+ ranked teams if they want to play on in March; no room for error. (Last year, our 3-1 record in these games against Penn St., Western KY, Pepperdine and Milwaukee helped us improve our RPI/Pomeroy ranking leading to post season consideration.) Here's the Pomeroy rankings for our OOC schedule and the A-10 conference:
#295 Loyola MD
#98 Penn St.
#326 St. Francis PA
#226 Canisius
#4 Kentucky
#278 Tennessee Martin
#211 Cleveland St.
#311 UMBC
#51 Pittsburgh
#299 Robert Morris
#349 Central Connecticut
#265 Jackson St.
#246 Colgate
#33 VCU
#37 Dayton
#43 Rhode Island
#74 Davidson
#78 Richmond
#79 St Bonaventure
#83 George Washington
#90 Saint Joseph's
#100 La Salle
#145 Fordham
#151 Massachusetts
#168 Duquesne
#171 George Mason
#224 Saint Louis
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Re: Pomeroy Preseason Predictions
Roll Dukes Roll
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Re: Pomeroy Preseason Predictions
currentstudent wrote:
One thing about predictions is that about one third of them will be wildly off. The only power ratings that matter are those at the end of the season. Oregon and Michigan St. both had high ratings in football before the season started. Both teams have proven to be garbage. WVU was in no one's Top 25, yet today they sit in the Top 10. Pitt's win over Penn St. was previously seen as a win over a bad team, that had little value, other than for local bragging rights. Today, it's a quality win for Pitt. This will happen in hoops as well, and some team on our schedule that looks to be a cupcake will end up being much better than that, while some tough opponent will end up being a cupcake, maybe due to injury.
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Re: Pomeroy Preseason Predictions
duq81 wrote:currentstudent wrote:
One thing about predictions is that about one third of them will be wildly off. The only power ratings that matter are those at the end of the season. Oregon and Michigan St. both had high ratings in football before the season started. Both teams have proven to be garbage. WVU was in no one's Top 25, yet today they sit in the Top 10. Pitt's win over Penn St. was previously seen as a win over a bad team, that had little value, other than for local bragging rights. Today, it's a quality win for Pitt. This will happen in hoops as well, and some team on our schedule that looks to be a cupcake will end up being much better than that, while some tough opponent will end up being a cupcake, maybe due to injury.
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Re: Pomeroy Preseason Predictions
1 Atlantic Coast Conference
2 Big 12 Conference
3 Big East Conference
4 Big Ten Conference
5 Pac 12 Conference
6 Southeastern Conference
7 Atlantic 10 Conference
8 American Athletic Conference
9 Mid American Conference
10 Colonial Athletic Association
11 Mountain West Conference
12 West Coast Conference
13 Missouri Valley Conference
14 Ivy League
15 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
16 Summit League •
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