Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum » Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for Jim Ferry's Future.

Tejas_Duke · 2/19/2017 4:54 pm

After today's typical Ferry defeat, with four regular season games to play:

4-0, Final Record 14-17: Odds 5%: Ferry stays! Guaranteed! Team shows coming together at the end of the season. They will have beaten two top half of the league teams, including St. Bonnie in Olean, where we NEVER WIN! Even if we lose the "Disgrace Day" game in the A-10 Tournament, he gets the extra year.

3-1 Final Record 13-18: Odds 15%: Team wins against the two fellow bottom feeders, and steals a win against Mason or Bonnies. Ferry can point to late run of success (4-2). They need to win the "Disgrace Day" game I think. Ferry stays!

2-2 Final Record 12-19: Odds 60%: Dancing incredibly close to (what I view as the point of no return. i.e. 20 losses). If they lose the play in game, Ferry is gone. If they win, I think he stays.

1-3 Final Record 11-20: Odds 15%. Ferry is gone! Harper can't look at (what's left at this point) the remaining faithful and say that a coach who loses 20 games in his fifth season is "on the right track! (Somehow winning two games in the A-10 could save him)

0-4 Final Record 10-21: Odds 5%. They will beat at least one bottom feeder. In either case. Ferry is gone, short of winning two games in the A 10 Tourney!

Last edited by Tejas_Duke (2/19/2017 4:54 pm)

duq81 · 2/19/2017 5:35 pm

Pretty much agree with this.

Dukes2012 · 2/19/2017 5:40 pm

Fair assessment.

ElDuque · 2/19/2017 6:04 pm

At a school that cares about winning, his butt would be out the door within seconds of being eliminated the first night of the A10 tournament. This, however, is Duquesne.

He's not going anywhere.

KenOTR73 · 2/19/2017 7:30 pm

I have to agree Tejas but if either of the first two scenarios play out, does he get another extension. I believe that will determine the new administration's commitment to finally getting serious after all the years of BS. If he gets another extension I am most definitely out of here.

levon1975 · 2/19/2017 7:53 pm

Coachind decisions aren't typically made based upon a particular game; speculation of this sort Really is nonsense!

Tejas_Duke · 2/20/2017 9:55 am

levon1975 wrote:
Coachind decisions aren't typically made based upon a particular game; speculation of this sort Really is nonsense!

Where did I mention one game? I am looking at the next four and guessing the probabilities of things happening. For instance, if they lose out and lose the first round in the A-10 tourney there is no way in God' s green earth Harper can bring back a coach with only ten wins! No way in hell.

Also, you might want to tell John Carroll that, whose fate was pretty much sealed in a 50 point beatdown by UMass

Tejas_Duke · 2/20/2017 10:06 am

KenOTR73 wrote:
I have to agree Tejas but if either of the first two scenarios play out, does he get another extension. I believe that will determine the new administration's commitment to finally getting serious after all the years of BS. If he gets another extension I am most definitely out of here.

I think he gets the extra year, but not the extension......yet! One of the arguments to keep him is Lewis and I Mike, plus the incoming recruits (and I am willing to take a chance on them).

It better be made clear to Ferry that he better take the OOC schedule seriously, not like this year. NO changing lineups, no odd sets, no "Just play hard" and he better focus on defense. His coaching staff will also need shaken up as well.

Next year, if they are sitting at 8-3 or 9-2 after the OOC and hopefully having beaten Pitt again, and putting Robert Morris in their place, then I can see him getting the extension.

levon1975 · 2/20/2017 10:35 am

That makes sense, I can agree with the plan.

The Dome · 2/20/2017 11:41 am

How can you trust this man to evaluate talent. His best center sat on the bench for close to two years and didn't even get a chance. So next year he brings in 3 new players and everyone comes back except for IMHO 2 guys who deserve little to no time and a undisciplined 5th year guard. Do you immediately play the PG and then we are young again???? If you think this team is winner next year I don't see it. The league is down this year I wouldn't count on it happening again. Ferry has shown absolutely no ability to hold his own with the current A-10 coaches. What changes?

townsonkid · 2/20/2017 12:19 pm

I would be more shocked if DU had the stones to fire him. I dont see him going anywhere, and next year might get a few more wins, based on the youth playing now and incoming class. But it wont be due to coaching.

Tejas_Duke · 2/22/2017 9:19 pm

After getting embarrassed at home by a fellow A 10 bottom feeder, here are the updated odds and predictions with three to go.

3-0, Final Record 13-18: Odds 1%: Ferry stays! Guaranteed! Beats two top half teams. Avoids 20 losses. Has to win the Day 1 game of the A 10 Tourney.

2-1 Final Record 12-19: Odds 9%: Team steals a win against Mason or Bonnies. They need to win the "Disgrace Day" game Ferry stays!

1-2 Final Record 11-20: Odds 60%. Needs to win the Disgrace Day game to even have a chance to stay! Ferry is gone!

0-3Final Record 10-21: Odds 30%. Lifeless end to the season, 20 loss threshold blown through. Ferry would need to win two games in the A 10 to even have a prayer of being retained. Harper can't look the faithful (the few of us left) and even remotely say this team is headed in the right direction going into Year #5!

Tejas_Duke · 3/02/2017 3:44 pm

Final Post:

20 losses, soon to be 21 and then 22: Jim Ferry is finished as Duquesne Mens Basketball Coach. Despite his talk of building a long term program and a long range vision, Dave Harper cannot justify bringing back a coach who loses 20 games with his players in year 5. The last few games have shown that Ferry just cannot coach at this level. 95%

The Board refuses to buy out Ferry (at that point if I am Harper I start putting my resume together) and we measure attendance in the dozens next year. 5%

president · 3/02/2017 3:55 pm

Nothing worse than having a lame duck head basketball coach which is what JF would surely be if retained another year to simply save dollars. This would be the worst possible decision that could be made by the powers that be. Hoping for a swift conclusion to what has been a failed tenure here.

Tejas_Duke · 3/02/2017 4:08 pm

president wrote:
Nothing worse than having a lame duck head basketball coach which is what JF would surely be if retained another year to simply save dollars. This would be the worst possible decision that could be made by the powers that be. Hoping for a swift conclusion to what has been a failed tenure here.

And hey, we've never seen the worst possible decision ever made at Duquesne right?

ElDuque · 3/02/2017 4:23 pm

I'd swap the lame duck for dame luck.

Tejas_Duke · 3/03/2017 8:13 am

ElDuque wrote:
I'd swap the lame duck for dame luck.

As I said, I will make one exception to my "I'm done with Ferry" boast, and that is if, Mike and Lewis, both stay plus none of the three incoming freshmen back out. I think I will be willing to give the new coach a shot. But that is it

duq81 · 3/03/2017 9:29 am

Tejas_Duke wrote:
ElDuque wrote:
I'd swap the lame duck for dame luck.
As I said, I will make one exception to my "I'm done with Ferry" boast, and that is if, Mike and Lewis, both stay plus none of the three incoming freshmen back out. I think I will be willing to give the new coach a shot. But that is it

10 wins ooc next year ought to bring you back as well.

Tejas_Duke · 3/03/2017 3:19 pm

duq81 wrote:
Tejas_Duke wrote:
ElDuque wrote:
I'd swap the lame duck for dame luck.
As I said, I will make one exception to my "I'm done with Ferry" boast, and that is if, Mike and Lewis, both stay plus none of the three incoming freshmen back out. I think I will be willing to give the new coach a shot. But that is it

10 wins ooc next year ought to bring you back as well.

No I fell for that one last year. maybe if it includes beating Pitt again and a beat down of Robert Morris. ;-)

Tejas Duke's Odds and Predictions for Jim Ferry's Future.

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levon1975 wrote:

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president wrote:

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ElDuque wrote:

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ElDuque wrote:

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Tejas_Duke wrote:

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