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This may be the strongest the bubble has been in a long while in mid to late January... Boy, if a school like Virginia makes it in after we slammed them on their court, I will be sorely disappointed. There could be another scenario similar to our 2015-2016 team that had a fabulous regular season overall, made it to the Conference finals against GW, lost that close game and were selected as an at large team. Regular conference games do matter including the upcoming road contest against St. Joseph's who the Dukes have never beaten at their place. Winning Wednesday will matter in the final evaluation. Rogabee, back in the house. Teams from the Atlantic 10 won 48% of their non-conference games this year. Conferences that only win 48% of their non-conference games do not get at large bids. No A-10 teams are on the bubble. Teams from the Atlantic 10 won 48% of their non-conference games this year. Conferences that only win 48% of their non-conference games do not get at large bids. No A-10 teams are on the bubble. Disagree. The Missouri Valley only won 40.38% of its games last year (and was the #17 conference overall!) but was a 2-bid league, getting both Northern Iowa and Drake in. Northern Iowa's top 25 win over Creighton as well as their victory over #26 K-State put them even without beating Drake in either regular season matchup. Last edited by rogabee (1/24/2018 8:30 am)
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Bracketology
My bracketology by conference...
Locks - 30
Conference winners - 32 - 7 = 25
= 55 teams that are locked in
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9 teams currently on the bubble will make it...
-7 of those are in my "likely in" category
= 2 of the teams currently on the bubble will make it...
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A10
Work to do, all on the bubble, all probably looking out for now
Duquesne (60) - Two questionable road losses, but three current top 50 wins (CMU, Virginia, Toledo). Not likely all three stay in the top 50, however. No top 25 wins.
Dayton (58) - No bad losses, win over Virginia their only top 50 win.
Fordham (75) - Two top 50 wins, with a potential 3rd in UC-Davis. Same as DU...not likely all 3 wins stay as top 50 wins. Loss at BC hurts.
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ACC
Locks
Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State, Syracuse, Duke
Bubble, in for now
NC State - Despite gaudy #18 RPI, has only one top 50 win. No bad losses helps.
Virginia - Two top 50 wins. No bad losses.
Bubble
Virginia Tech (73) - Classic bubble team, especially looking to games ahead.
Bubble, out for now
Miami (63) - Current resume looks very similar to Duquesne's, but the one loss just not as bad.
Georgia Tech (56) - Only two top 100 wins. Loss at Pitt hurts
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SEC
Locks
Mississippi St, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia
Bubble, out for now
LSU (43) - not enough big wins yet. May come with the strength of the SEC
Alabama (74) - Only one top 50 win - LSU
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Big Ten
Locks
Ohio St, Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan St, Michigan
Bubble, Likely in
Michigan State (44)
Iowa (29) - No bad losses, 5 top 100 wins. Only one current top 50 win, but 2 others in the 51-55 range.
Nebraska (59) - Three top 50 wins. Only one bad loss...to #107
Bubble - Minnesota, Purdue. Both show worse than the current 3 in the ACC, but still can play their way in...
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Pac 12
Locks
Oregon, UCLA, Arizona St, Oregon St (ignore the #52 RPI), Cal, Stanford
Bubble
Utah - classic bubble team in January
Work to do
USC (54). Will need a couple big wins. If they get them, though, someone else from the P12 will be hurting too..
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Big 12
Locks
Texas, Baylor, West Virginia, Ok State
Bubble
Oklahoma (34) - 2 bad losses, only one top 50 win despite #34 RPI.
Bubble, out for now
TCU
Work to do
Kansas St (72)
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Big East
Locks
Marquette, DePaul, Villanova
Bubble, in for now
St. John's - Plenty of top 50 chances. Need to take advantage.
Bubble
Creighton (60)
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MAC
Bubble, Likely in
Ball State (35) - While only 1 top 50 win, no bad losses
Bubble
Buffalo (22) - Three top 50 wins, but two bad road losses...
Toledo (46) - More of a classic bubble team
Bubble, out for now
Central Michigan - Need a big win or two. Still host Buffalo, Ball State
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AAC
Locks: UConn, USF
Work to do - Houston (45), UCF (51). Despite good RPIs, both are still squarely out.
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Teams that are likely in to steal a bid if they don't win their tourney
Green Bay (13), South Dakota St (33),
Bubble teams if they lose in their tourney
Quinnipiac (53), Western Kentucky (55), Northern Colorado (43), Florida Gulf Coast (42)
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Re: Bracketology
Win the conference and erase any doubts, Duquesne!
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Re: Bracketology
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Re: Bracketology
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Re: Bracketology
I wish that wasn't so, but it is. Even if we go undefeated in conference play and lose in the championship game I wouldn't expect an at large bid and would be absolutely shocked if we'd get one.
Do I think we deserve an at large bid? Yes. Do I think we're better than some of the power conference teams that will get one? Yes. Do I think we will get one? No.
We must win the tournament to get a bid and I do think we will do that.
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Re: Bracketology
VBC wrote:
I wish that wasn't so, but it is. Even if we go undefeated in conference play and lose in the championship game I wouldn't expect an at large bid and would be absolutely shocked if we'd get one.
Do I think we deserve an at large bid? Yes. Do I think we're better than some of the power conference teams that will get one? Yes. Do I think we will get one? No.
We must win the tournament to get a bid and I do think we will do that.
Actually, no conference since at least 2013 (that's as far as I had time to check this morning) has had two or more teams both earn two top 50 wins out-of-conference and not earn a multi-bid league either. The A-10 currently has two teams both with THREE top 50 wins out-of-conference (Duquesne over Virginia, Toledo, CMU and Fordham over Northern Colorado, St John's, and UC-Davis). The only problem is that one of those two teams may not be one of the A10's top two teams with Dayton looming.
If the conference can separate - which I think it will - the top of the league certainly has a shot at an at-large IMHO despite the overall conference winning percentage.
Also, see the way the seeds have been given out in previous years. Green Bay, who went 15-3 in a conference that won only 44% of its games last year got an 8 seed, stating they would have danced should their loss to Milwaukee been in the Horizon tourney rather than in the regular season (three top 30 wins and four top 50 wins OOC helped, I'm sure).
That being said, you better do really well in conference play. Dayton, Duquesne, and Fordham all have been thus far though. •
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