Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum » Game Thread

PhoenixRising2 · 12/05/2018 9:19 am

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 12/05/2018 at the AJ Palumbo Center.
Per KenPom:
Dukes #167 (4-2) vs Marshall Thundering Herd #112 (5-2) - Conference USA
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 1, 79-78 - Dukes with 45% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 1 point underdogs; Over/Under 158½
Duquesne 2-3-1 Against the Spread: Marshall 4-3 ATS

Marshall Best Win(s): Hofstra (127); William & Mary (176)
Marshall Worst Loss(es): Ohio (153)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 3 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 3 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Marshall for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Turnover % (37)
Offensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (256); FT Rate (274)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (6)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (326); FT Rate (293)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 353 teams):
Offensive Strength: Offensive Rebound % (40)
Offensive Weakness: Turnover % (293)
Defensive Strength: Turnover % (28)
Defensive Weakness: Offensive Rebound % (330); FT Rate (255)

PhoenixRising2 · 12/05/2018 9:26 am

If you watch Zac Weiss' interview with KD, he talks about the the Dukes ranking in Ken Pom's Four Factors.

townsonkid · 12/05/2018 11:30 am

So rebounding and turnovers will loom large tonight. Looks like some bricks will be thrown from the FT line.

PhoenixRising2 · 12/05/2018 12:26 pm

townsonkid wrote:
So rebounding and turnovers will loom large tonight. Looks like some bricks will be thrown from the FT line.

townsonkid, the FT Rate stat has nothing to do with shooting percentage. It's all about how frequent a team gets to the FT line. In this case, it means that both teams (Dukes offensive FT rate is 244) do not get to the FT line very often. But both teams send their opponents to the FT line very frequently. Something gotta give on this tonight. Teams that get to the foul line more and don’t send their opponents to the FT line have a higher likelihood of winning.

Not sure if you looked this up as the basis for your statement, but both teams are mediocre shooting from the FT line. Dukes at 66.7%, 244th in the country; Marshall at 66.4%, 252nd in the country.

And good point on turnovers... The Dukes must limit their turnovers tonight; Marshall doesn't turn the ball over and they force turnovers.

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (12/05/2018 12:27 pm)

Tejas_Duke · 12/05/2018 1:41 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
townsonkid wrote:
So rebounding and turnovers will loom large tonight. Looks like some bricks will be thrown from the FT line.
townsonkid, the FT Rate stat has nothing to do with shooting percentage. It's all about how frequent a team gets to the FT line. In this case, it means that both teams (Dukes offensive FT rate is 244) do not get to the FT line very often. But both teams send their opponents to the FT line very frequently. Something gotta give on this tonight. Teams that get to the foul line more and don’t send their opponents to the FT line have a higher likelihood of winning.

Not sure if you looked this up as the basis for your statement, but both teams are mediocre shooting from the FT line. Dukes at 66.7%, 244th in the country; Marshall at 66.4%, 252nd in the country.

And good point on turnovers... The Dukes must limit their turnovers tonight; Marshall doesn't turn the ball over and they force turnovers.

I may have failed stats but being in the bottom 30% of a category is not mediocre. It's bad!

townsonkid · 12/05/2018 1:49 pm

I heard they had to take the rims from last game at Palumbo to a body shop to get the dents pounded out.

Econ69 · 12/05/2018 2:29 pm

Duke(Coach K) shoots 64.8% FT.
They shoot 50% from the field.

Stats are important but not necessarily the final factor on who wins.

PhoenixRising2 · 12/05/2018 4:22 pm

Econ69 wrote:
Duke(Coach K) shoots 64.8% FT.
They shoot 50% from the field.

Stats are important but not necessarily the final factor on who wins.

But if Duke gets to the FT line 30 times and you only get there 10 times, you can shoot 100% and still be 10 points behind just at the foul line. That’s why FT Rate is so important.

Duques102 · 12/05/2018 7:03 pm

Weathers back Williams coming off the bench tonight...

Duques102 · 12/05/2018 7:31 pm

Williams finally coming in. Dukes looking solid on both ends so far.

Dukes2012 · 12/05/2018 7:35 pm

Everyone who has played so far has looked good. Let’s finish this half strong.

Tejas_Duke · 12/05/2018 7:44 pm

Really not happy about this ESPN3 feed. Three times it's lost the feed and I had to reboot, and the third time when I got back the Dukes had gone from being up five to being up 18!

Dukes2012 · 12/05/2018 7:53 pm

Great first 18 minutes. Poor final two minutes. Let them back in it. Up ten at the half.

Duques102 · 12/05/2018 7:57 pm

Tejas_Duke wrote:
Really not happy about this ESPN3 feed. Three times it's lost the feed and I had to reboot, and the third time when I got back the Dukes had gone from being up five to being up 18!

Mike Lewis went off. Made two threes and was fouled on the 2nd.

Tejas_Duke · 12/05/2018 7:57 pm

And let's foul the all time greatest free throw shooter in Marshall history on a desperation three with 1.4 seconds to go!

Last edited by Tejas_Duke (12/05/2018 8:05 pm)

Dukes2012 · 12/05/2018 8:17 pm

This is why it was so important to finish the first half strong. We have Marshall hope and now we’ve gone cold.

Tejas_Duke · 12/05/2018 9:04 pm

A little rocky at times, but way to shake off the Pitt loss!

duq81 · 12/05/2018 9:05 pm

Big win! We are on track to win at least 10 games ooc, which we need to do in order to reach some of our more optimistic goals.

Duques102 · 12/05/2018 9:05 pm

Dukes finish strong. Have to feel like if we played this well against Pitt, could have been a different outcome.

Dukes2012 · 12/05/2018 9:07 pm

Everyone played a part in this win. Good to see mike Lewis and sincere bounce back from some recent disappointments.

DukesDan · 12/05/2018 9:08 pm

The game never seemed in question. Just a dominating performance. Marshall's senior Elmore was held in check very well. Nice to see Carry play so well. This was a nice rebound after the City game.

Tejas_Duke · 12/05/2018 9:09 pm

DukesDan wrote:
The game never seemed in question. Just a dominating performance. Marshall's senior Elmore was held in check very well. Nice to see Carry play so well. This was a nice rebound after the City game.

I wouldn't go that far. Twice when the lead got whittled down from upper double digits to three possessions, I was not taking anything for granted.

CLK · 12/05/2018 9:15 pm

Great win by the Dukes. Only 17 more wins and I am on my way to McKeesport. Go Dukes!

CLK · 12/05/2018 9:15 pm

Great win by the Dukes. Only 17 more wins and I am on my way to McKeesport. Go Dukes!

DukesDan · 12/05/2018 9:20 pm

I'm thinking positive tonight! We looked like the better team and Marshall is no slouch. In particular I was impressed by Kelly tonight with his movement around the rim. He is nimble. Also, Wade showed some energy and made up for a couple mistakes very quickly. I am starting to see what Dambrot sees in him.

Interesting that Williams Jr had a discipliniary issue. Carry and Lewis II looked good.

Last edited by DukesDan (12/05/2018 9:27 pm)

Game Thread - Marshall Thundering Herd

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townsonkid wrote:

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PhoenixRising2 wrote:

townsonkid wrote:

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Econ69 wrote:

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Tejas_Duke wrote:

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DukesDan wrote:

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