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1/12/2021 6:43 pm  #1


Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/13/2021 at the University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH
Dukes #101 (3-3; 2-2) vs Dayton Flyers #71 (6-3; 2-2)

Game prediction: Dukes lose by 5, 69-64 - Dukes with 31% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 5½ point underdogs; Over/Under 132½
Duquesne 2-4 Against the Spread; Dayton 4-5 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): UNC Greensboro (126); George Washington (205)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): George Washington (205); Little Rock (139)
Dayton Best Win(s): Mississippi (53); Mississippi St. (66)
Dayton Worst Loss(es): Fordham (230); La Salle (152)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Dayton for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Effective FG % (12); FT Rate (73)
Offensive Weakness:  Turnover % (314)
Defensive Strength:  FT Rate (15)
Defensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (259)

Here's a look at Dayton in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Effective FG % (1)
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (11)
Defensive Strength:  FT Rate (1); Offensive Rebound % (3)  
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (12)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  FT Rate (51)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (276)
Defensive Strength:  None
Defensive Weakness:  None

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (3)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (12)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (1)
Defensive Weakness:  None

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Dayton Adj Offense Efficiency - 109.0, #58 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 96.4, #76 in D-1
Dayton Adj Defense Efficiency - 97.6, #100 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.1, #136 in D-1
Dayton Adj Tempo - 65.2, #330 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 68.3, #226 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - Dayton 2.11 yrs, #64 in D-1; Dukes 1.95 yrs, #103 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - Dayton 44.1%, #186 in D-1; Dukes 68.0%, #27 in D-1
Average Height - Dayton 77.7", #66 in D-1; Dukes 76.1", #286 in D-1

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 160th in the country.
Dayton is 105th in the country.
Automated Game Preview: https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=4359&neut=0
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

 

1/12/2021 7:26 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Dayton is fighting injuries and the loss of one of their best players, Chase Johnson, at the semester and their fans believe he was forced out because of bad grades. With losses this month to George Mason and Fordham... I expect Dayton to be playing with some anger.

 

1/12/2021 7:32 pm  #3


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

What I believe our new starting lineup should be:
TDM
Ryan Murphy
Toby Okani
Marcus Weathers
Mike Hughes

 

 

1/12/2021 9:48 pm  #4


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Like BluffHunter's proposed lineup. Lots of experience and talent. Murphy is due!! Okani one of the most talented freshmen  I've seen at Duquesne in quite a few years.

 

1/12/2021 10:14 pm  #5


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

BluffHunter wrote:

Dayton is fighting injuries and the loss of one of their best players, Chase Johnson, at the semester and their fans believe he was forced out because of bad grades. With losses this month to George Mason and Fordham... I expect Dayton to be playing with some anger.

They lost to LaSalle not George Mason.

 

1/12/2021 10:26 pm  #6


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

BluffHunter wrote:

What I believe our new starting lineup should be:
TDM
Ryan Murphy
Toby Okani
Marcus Weathers
Mike Hughes

 

I thought the length & athleticism Baker brought to the starting lineup was very intriguing. That 5 could cause some matchup issues but, even with a seasoned point guard running the show, KD's DU teams have never demonstrated the ability to take advantage of such things as mismatches on a regular basis. Because of that, I too like the idea of Murphy's experience & shooting as a starter. This team will struggle to score so, shooters to spread the floor & playmakers to drive & kick/dish seem the better fit. Murphy can do those things as well as anyone on the roster. His defensive effort is also encouraging.

 

1/12/2021 10:54 pm  #7


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Wildwood13 wrote:

BluffHunter wrote:

Dayton is fighting injuries and the loss of one of their best players, Chase Johnson, at the semester and their fans believe he was forced out because of bad grades. With losses this month to George Mason and Fordham... I expect Dayton to be playing with some anger.

They lost to LaSalle not George Mason.

My bad, Thanks!!

 

1/12/2021 11:00 pm  #8


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Thanks Phil and Prez, in the past few games Murphy's basketball knowledge has quickly been very apparent to me. I also think the combination of Okani and Baker at the 3 has infinite potential. With Rotroff and Kelly helping out the bigs and Acuff helping the guards I think that is a solid 9 to narrow down to as well. Baker just needs to keep his hands down every time there's a whistle against the Dukes.

 

1/13/2021 10:19 am  #9


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

I look at the starting 5 as really a starting 6 because Dambrot seems to be enamored with a true sixth man. So we have a guard who runs run the offense and is quick enough to defend on the perimeter, a guard who can handle the ball but also shoot and has enough size to play on the wings, a forward who can play both ways in space, a forward with enough size to pound but also enough athleticism to play outside on occasion whether to stretch the floor on offense or defend against a small lineup, a true big man who protects the rim and can score inside, and a true shooting guard who can light it up from outside.

At the 1, we'll likely see TDM getting the kind of minutes Carry used to get. When he needs a rest Bekelja will back him up. Okani gets the start at the 2, with Acuff spelling him. Both of them have really impressed me so far. Baker starts at the 3, but we'll likely see him and Harris get pretty similar playing time and ride the hot hand. Both showed early potential that is starting to be realized. Weathers needs to get back to the team's best player at the 4. Kelly finally looks healthy again, so he'll be the backup there. Hughes seemed to get the hint last game that he has to step up and show the leadership you'd expect from a 5th year. He'll start at the 5 with Rotroff stepping inside when he goes to the bench. Murphy gets the "start" at the 6. I echo whoever said even his misses look good. So hopefully his shooting will come around, but he has been able to contribute even when the shots aren't falling. Roesing is the "backup" at the 6. It appears he's a redshirt, but 47% from 3 point range is intriguing even if it's in high school.

 

1/13/2021 11:39 am  #10


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Lucky KD said that Acuff would be the back-up at PG to TDM and I like that now and going forward.  Acuff is coming along, looks more and more poised and I like his size at the PG.  I am fine with Murph coming off the bench and he actually is our most seasoned guy who is use to a high level of competition.  Murph will get his minutes no matter what and I too like his stroke - even when he misses you can tell.  I think we all saw how Dre Harris can contribute and I like what KD said about him, and his Mom.  Let's not forget he was our highest rated recruit so I see bigger and better things out of him.  I now see a rotation of who started last time with Acuff, Murph, Rotroff, Dre, and Kelly off the bench.  I think that is a workable rotation with a narrowing down as the game goes along based on who is really playing well in that particular game.  Bang......Pistol out.

 

1/13/2021 3:27 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

The penguins season opener is tonight as well! I sure am glad the NHL is back. I think this tweet is absolutely hilarious. Pittsburgh brand synergy tonight.

https://twitter.com/im_yikyak/status/1349348161362522112

 

1/13/2021 7:03 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Like to pull out one of these next two. 

 

1/13/2021 7:10 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Good start.

Last edited by WashPaRick (1/13/2021 7:11 pm)

 

1/13/2021 7:55 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Love the length for defense and rebounding. On O they moving a lot better and moving the ball better. It will take time to gel, but like what I see! Just hope in the off-season these guys hit the weight room. I have not seen any players body improve over the four years.

On a side note, Sincere to Kent St, shows he really did not get along with the coach, as well as Lewis and Williams, didn’t along with the coach. That is a little trouble some.

 

1/13/2021 7:56 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Solid half scoring wise, need to keep the defense up too. Forcing shot clock violations and ten second calls will be how we win this game. SHUT DOWN CRUTCHER--HIT YOUR FOUL SHOTS

 

1/13/2021 7:59 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

It would be nice if these CBS announcers would actually watch the game instead of reading us the Dayton press guide word for word. They actually called 5 or 6 plays exactly wrong.

 

1/13/2021 8:11 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Didn't take long to get ugly.

 

1/13/2021 8:13 pm  #18


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

That square, behind the basket, do they know you can use that to bounce the ball off, and it will go into the basket?

 

1/13/2021 8:19 pm  #19


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

This might be the worst announcer I ever listen to, and I am 62 years old. He has called players by the wrong name at least ten times, called fouls on the wrong team several times. Totally inaccurate on so many things.

 

1/13/2021 8:26 pm  #20


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Terrible 8 minutes.

 

1/13/2021 8:56 pm  #21


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Eye gouge D works every time.

 

1/13/2021 9:24 pm  #22


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Dukes fought to the end but over matched by a good, not great, Dayton squad. Think this is what we're in for until our younger players develops and the whole team meshes as the season moves along. Lots of athleticism but offensively challenged at this point. First half was fun, second half not so much but lets keep playing and learning how to win. Give defense credit for keeping us in the game and avoiding a 15 or 20 point blowout. 

 

1/13/2021 9:25 pm  #23


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

Did anyone here actually expect Duquesne to win this game? They will struggle to win any games this year in this Conference. Won't surprise me to see 10th place or lower.

 

1/13/2021 9:27 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

When we don't shoot well, we need to play great defense. Too many open threes.

 

1/13/2021 9:28 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - Dayton Flyers (A)

These two announcer no doubt were adept at performing fellatio on Dayton Flyer nation.

 

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