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3/03/2021 6:13 pm  #1


Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

11:00am EST tip on Thursday 03/04/2021 at the Siegel Center, Richmond, VA
(2nd round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament - televised on NBCSN)
Dukes #123 KenPom / #139 NET (8-8; 7-7) vs Richmond Spiders #62 KenPom / #62 NET (13-7; 6-5)
First Meeting at Richmond: Richmond 79-72

Game prediction: Dukes lose by 8, 76-68 - Dukes with 23% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 6½ point underdogs; Over/Under 139½
Duquesne 9-7 Against the Spread; Richmond 9-10 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): Dayton (83); Rhode Island-2 (94); UNC Greensboro (111)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): Little Rock (229); George Washington (212); La Salle (190)
Richmond Best Win(s): Loyala Chicago (11); Kentucky (53); Davidson (68)
Richmond Worst Loss(es): La Salle (190); Saint Joseph's (184); Hofstra (178)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Richmond for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Turnover % (6); Effective FG % (45)
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (333)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (50)
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (279)

Here's a look at Richmond in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Turnover % (1); Effective FG % (3)
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (14)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (2)  
Defensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (13)

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 357 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (84)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (261)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (60)
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (273)

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Offensive Rebound % (4)
Offensive Weakness:  Effective FG % (11)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (2)
Defensive Weakness:  FT Rate (14)

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Richmond Adj Offense Efficiency - 112.4, #34 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 97.7, #92 in D-1
Richmond Adj Defense Efficiency - 98.3, #104 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 103.4, #152 in D-1
Richmond Adj Tempo - 69.0, #163 in D-1
-vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 69.1, #161 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - Richmond 2.46 yrs, #13 in D-1; Dukes 1.67 yrs, #209 in D-1
Minutes Continuity - Richmond 75.2%, #10 in D-1; Dukes 53.4%, #114 in D-1
Average Height - Richmond 76.1", #285 in D-1; Dukes 76.2", #267 in D-1

Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 124th in the country.
Richmond is 66th in the country.
Automated Game Preview: https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=537&neut=1
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (3/03/2021 9:50 pm)

 

3/03/2021 7:31 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

I checked the Richmond message board
Apparently they have concerns about injuries to Golden and Francis. If those two
don't play many minutes, bench could be a problem.
Some of the Richmond fans want Mooney fired.
They are upset about the Richmond loss to St. Joe. They think it knocked them out
of a three seed. 
They don't think they can beat SBU if they get by DU.
I don't  know if this means anything but I sense some issues with Richmond that could benefit the Dukes.
Issues not reflected in the spot.

 

3/03/2021 7:49 pm  #3


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Phoenix I assume these posts are just cut and pastes, so the error would be their's and not yours; but in the off chance you transcribe them, the score of the first game is wrong. It should be 79-72, not 79-62. The game was closer than even the seven point margin indicates. It was a hell of a lot closer than a 17 point game.

Bettors like the Dukes so far. The spread dropped within an hour of opening. It's probably a result of the injuries, but it could also have something to do with the Dukes covering the spread seven games in a row.

 

3/03/2021 9:55 pm  #4


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

luckymcd wrote:

Phoenix I assume these posts are just cut and pastes, so the error would be their's and not yours; but in the off chance you transcribe them, the score of the first game is wrong. It should be 79-72, not 79-62. The game was closer than even the seven point margin indicates. It was a hell of a lot closer than a 17 point game.

Bettors like the Dukes so far. The spread dropped within an hour of opening. It's probably a result of the injuries, but it could also have something to do with the Dukes covering the spread seven games in a row.

Thanks, luckymcd; I fat fingered that score. My fault - no cut and pastes on this. Also one clarification, the Dukes have covered in 6 of their last 7 games (easy to scrub that La Salle drubbing completely out of our minds, unfortunately my wallet remembers).

     Thread Starter
 

3/03/2021 10:11 pm  #5


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

I'm embarrassed that I forgot that travesty of a game, but in my defense I took the seven covers in a row straight from ESPN's Pick Center. They list the game everywhere else on the site, but it's completely left off of their Pick Center, the gambling run down. 

 

3/04/2021 7:27 am  #6


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Coach D's pre-tournament thoughts. ITS TIME TO DO THIS!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwfPXpJa8Rs&feature=emb_title

 

3/04/2021 9:59 am  #7


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Three point shooting and rebounding will be key. They are dangerous from deep, but if you can stop that weapon you have a good chance of beating them. In fact, only once in their seven losses did they make 1/3 of their threes. Meanwhile, their opponents made at least half of their threes in four of their seven losses. They got outrebounded in all seven losses by a combined 63 rebounds. It seemed like a bad break that we have to play them in Richmond, but five of those seven losses happened in Richmond and they are only 6-5 in their home city this year.

They are definitely beatable. Less than two weeks ago we were leading them with two minutes left in the game. I expect a 40 minute battle that could go either way. They have had our number for years though and are a very good team playing in their home city fighting to make the tournament. I hope I'm wrong, but I'll say Dukes 69 Spiders 71.

 

3/04/2021 10:15 am  #8


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Any update on Francis and Golden?

 

3/04/2021 10:17 am  #9


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Francis is out!!! He scored 17 (tied for most on the team against us) last time we matched up. Gotta take advantage of that.

https://twitter.com/spidermbb/status/1367492327661592581?s=21

Last edited by Duques102 (3/04/2021 10:17 am)

 

3/04/2021 10:24 am  #10


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

I was on the Richmond message board.
If what I read is true, I believe Golden is out.
That would be their top two scorers.
This game would be the game for the Dukes to play
inspired defense.

 

3/04/2021 10:34 am  #11


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Talk time is over.   Can Hughes and Baker play with fire, but not let it burn them?   If they can, we win.   If they slump or act a fool, we lose.   Would be nice to see TDM knock a few 3s early.   Get some!!!

 

3/04/2021 10:43 am  #12


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Duques102 wrote:

Francis is out!!! He scored 17 (tied for most on the team against us) last time we matched up. Gotta take advantage of that.

https://twitter.com/spidermbb/status/1367492327661592581?s=21

I was kind of hoping that Francis and Golden would play as I've seen too many times opposing teams letting bit  down their guard a bit when star players are out. Richmond's got plenty of weapons still. Dukes have to play their A game. Pound it inside, guard the three well, box out, and hit some open looks from 3.
 

 

3/04/2021 11:14 am  #13


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

We have to stop settling for threes. I like the defensive pressure though. Extending out already got us one steal and almost another. The numbers don't look good defensively, but if we continue this pressure that will turn around as the game goes on.

 

3/04/2021 11:18 am  #14


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Might want to get Kelly and TDM out of there.
 

 

3/04/2021 11:20 am  #15


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

On second thought go ahead and take those threes. I think we were about 0-5 from the paint between the timeouts.

 

3/04/2021 11:20 am  #16


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Could this be a 5 against 8 game. Not getting any calls.

 

3/04/2021 11:21 am  #17


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Just lost out on 5 points in the weathers walk and Kelly’s illegal screen on the TDM 3. Not to mention that absolute joke of a foul call on the Richmond 3.

Refs been told to keep those bids alive for the league?

 

3/04/2021 11:25 am  #18


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Getting ugly already SMH

 

3/04/2021 11:26 am  #19


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Can't beat Richmond.

 

3/04/2021 11:26 am  #20


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

They are making most of their 3s, and get rebounds on misses, then we throw the ball around like no one wants it.    This will get out of control soon at this pace.

 

3/04/2021 11:27 am  #21


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

WashPaRick wrote:

Can't beat Richmond.

and the refs.

 

3/04/2021 11:29 am  #22


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

Okani good in the open floor.

 

3/04/2021 11:31 am  #23


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

You know it's bad when even the announcers are criticizing the refs. If we can't rebound better we'll have no one to blame but ourselves though. The A-10 has some really physical good rebounding teams, Richmond isn't one of them. I like the move to press though. Richmond has a lot of talent, but not much depth. They also want to slow things down into a half-court game. Get them out of their comfort zone and even if we don't force turnovers it will favor us. Plus depth is something we've been blessed with. A different guy seems to take over every few years. Right now it's Okani.

Last edited by luckymcd (3/04/2021 11:33 am)

 

3/04/2021 11:31 am  #24


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

TDM is out of control. Keep Acuff in there to run the offense. Let TDM get shots off the ball or else he is not going to help the team.

 

3/04/2021 11:39 am  #25


Re: Game Thread - Richmond Spiders (A10 Tournament)

White ref giving it to us.

 

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