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1/11/2022 5:53 pm  #1


Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 01/12/2022 at the Rose Hill Gym, Bronx, NY
Per KenPom:
Dukes #186 (6-7; 1-0 A-10) vs Fordham Rams #188 (8-5; 1-0 A-10)
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 3, 68-65 - Dukes with 38% probability of a win.
Betting line: Dukes are 1½ point underdogs; Over/Under 134
Duquesne 6-7 Against the Spread: Fordham 8-5 ATS

Dukes Best Win(s): UC Irvine (96); Bradley (132); UMass (147)
Dukes Worst Loss(es): Northeastern (195); Marshall (179)
Fordham Best Win(s): Akron (135); Rice (169)
Fordham Worst Loss(es): Maryland Eastern Shore (343); Manhattan (250)

Four Factors ==> Effective field goal percentage; Turnover percentage; Offensive rebounding percentage; Free throw rate (shown below if team has Top 100 ranking overall or top 4 in conference as a strength; if team has Bottom 100 ranking or bottom 4 in conference as a weakness)

Here's a look at Fordham for the season (national ranking out of 358 teams):
Offensive Strength: FT Rate (60); Turnover % (78)  
Offensive Weakness: None
Defensive Strength: Offensive Rebound % (70); Effective FG % (88)
Defensive Weakness: None

Here's a look at Fordham in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  None
Offensive Weakness:  Offensive Rebound % (12)
Defensive Strength:  Effective FG % (2)  
Defensive Weakness:  None

Here's a look at the Dukes for the season (national ranking out of 358 teams):
Offensive Strength: Turnover % (29); Offensive Rebound % (67)
Offensive Weakness: Effective FG % (260); FT Rate (288)
Defensive Strength: FT Rate (44)
Defensive Weakness: Effective FG % (265)

Here's a look at the Dukes in the A-10 (conference ranking out of 14 teams):
Offensive Strength:  Turnover % (2)
Offensive Weakness:  FT Rate (11)
Defensive Strength:  Turnover % (3)
Defensive Weakness:  None

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions
Fordham Adj Offense Efficiency - 97.7; 276 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 104.3; 200 in D-1
Fordham Adj Defense Efficiency - 99.2; 94 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 102.9; 188 in D-1
Fordham Adj Tempo - 68.9; 162 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 66.9; 270 in D-1

Miscellaneous
Experience - Fordham 2.10 yrs; 137 in D-1; Dukes 0.78 yrs; 354 in D-1
Average Height - Fordham 76.4"; 265 in D-1; Dukes 77.2"; 139 in D-1


Haslametrics = has the Dukes as 190th in the country.
Fordham is 171st in the country.
Automated Game Preview:  https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=4483&neut=0
Overall Ratings:  http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/11/2022 9:36 pm)

 

1/11/2022 6:31 pm  #2


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Fordham seems to have one of their better teams.

 

1/11/2022 9:19 pm  #3


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

So the Dukes are 1 1/2 point underdogs and are predicted to lose by 3, but have an 88% chance of winning? Something doesn’t add up there. If home court is worth the generic 3 points across the board like it generally is in football perhaps that plays a part. I’d think that would be factored into everything though. Anyone know what’s up?

 

1/11/2022 9:37 pm  #4


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

luckymcd wrote:

So the Dukes are 1 1/2 point underdogs and are predicted to lose by 3, but have an 88% chance of winning? Something doesn’t add up there. If home court is worth the generic 3 points across the board like it generally is in football perhaps that plays a part. I’d think that would be factored into everything though. Anyone know what’s up?

Just a typo, luckymcd. It should be a 38% chance. Thanks for the catch.

BTW, line has swung to the Dukes being favored by 1½ (as of 9:40pm).

Last edited by PhoenixRising2 (1/11/2022 9:40 pm)

     Thread Starter
 

1/12/2022 12:02 am  #5


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Just a typo, luckymcd. It should be a 38% chance. Thanks for the catch.

BTW, line has swung to the Dukes being favored by 1½ (as of 9:40pm).

Do you type those previews out fur every game? I always figured they were just cut and paste. I appreciate them even more now Phoenix!

I haven’t seen Fordham this year, but definitely expected the Dukes to be favorites. We’ve dominated the series recently, winning 14 of the last 17 and 8 of the last 9 at Rose Hill. As the announcers said in the last game in reference to us struggling at UMass, almost no one on the team has been around long enough to know. I was at the last one though and certainly wouldn’t have expected the Rams to be favored against us less than a year later.

 

1/12/2022 7:11 am  #6


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

luckymcd wrote:

I haven’t seen Fordham this year, but definitely expected the Dukes to be favorites. We’ve dominated the series recently, winning 14 of the last 17 and 8 of the last 9 at Rose Hill. As the announcers said in the last game in reference to us struggling at UMass, almost no one on the team has been around long enough to know. I was at the last one though and certainly wouldn’t have expected the Rams to be favored against us less than a year later.

Not a surprise, both teams almost dead even in the rankings and home team always gets 3 points toward the good side.
 


Habemus victus Richmond, et Bonnies et Dayton.
Nunc vincere Atlanticum 10
 

1/12/2022 8:13 am  #7


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Over the past few years under Jeff Neubauer, the Rams were usually tough defensively and woeful on offense. Under their new coach, Kyle Neptune, Fordham still is playing good defense and has shown decent improvement offensively. Much of that offensive improvement is coming through their center, Chuba Ohams, who seems to have overcome all of his major knee injuries. As a side note, Ohams played his first game at Fordham in November 2016; turned 24 years old in December.

     Thread Starter
 

1/12/2022 10:28 am  #8


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Neptune has strong recruiting ties to NYC and I expect Fordham's program to improve significantly in the next few years. 

 

1/12/2022 10:29 am  #9


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Big game for us, on the road, to start the A10 2-0 on the road would be fantastic.   This doesnt appear to be the Fordham we have seen lately.   Kind of glad we have a new team this year, so they shouldnt expect a weak opponent tonight.   I expect another game down to the last minute.   I guess I shouldnt watch the first half again.   https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons2/big-grin.png

 

1/12/2022 10:49 am  #10


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

I saw some of the Fordham vs St John's game early in the season, and I was impressed with Fordham.  They went toe-to-toe with St. Johns and didn't back down physically at least in the first half.  St. John's apparently opened the game up a bit in the second and won by 14.  The coaching change seems to have energized the program, and they are definitely a better team.  This will be a tricky game for the Dukes, since I'm sure like Duquesne Fordham sees an opportunity to go 2-0 in the A-10.  Hopefully Duquesne will be confident but not over-confident going into this one.  It should be a good battle.  

 

1/12/2022 2:54 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Over the past few years under Jeff Neubauer, the Rams were usually tough defensively and woeful on offense. Under their new coach, Kyle Neptune, Fordham still is playing good defense and has shown decent improvement offensively.

Like I said I haven’t seen Fordham this year, but their stats indicate a team very similar to what they’ve been for awhile now. Fordham’s strength of FG defense and our weakness of offensive shooting are a bit of a concern, but I still expect a Dukes win. I still look at Fordham as a Patriot league opponent. They’re tough in football(though maybe not so much anymore) but we should beat them every time in basketball.

 

1/12/2022 3:43 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

They are definitely scoring more than Neubauer's teams typically did, with two transfer guards--Antonio Daye from Florida International and Darius Quisenberry (grad transfer) from Youngstown State--leading the way. According to Verbal Commits, Quisenberry was on Keith's recruiting radar at Akron. Quite the breakout season for Chuba with the nightly double-doubles. They've mostly beat up on some pretty weak teams, the loss to UMES notwithstanding, but for Fordham, that's progress. Rose Hill's been good to us in recent years, no reason that shouldn't continue tonight the way the Dukes have been playing lately. No fans there in any case.

Last edited by DennisC91 (1/12/2022 7:27 pm)

 

1/12/2022 7:38 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

The Dukes have blocked not less than 5 shots. They have gotten credit for one. 

Nice to see Tre making a little hay.

 

1/12/2022 7:42 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

phil95 wrote:

The Dukes have blocked not less than 5 shots. They have gotten credit for one. 

Nice to see Tre making a little hay.

Tre playing well. Let's not lose this lead before the half. WOW JACKIE'

 

1/12/2022 7:55 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Lucky McD:
You got your wish with Tre & Rotroff playing together & playing well before Austin got that second foul.

I want to see Tre pass out of  the post for some open 3s.
 

 

1/12/2022 7:56 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Feels like we should be up by way more than 7.

 

1/12/2022 8:05 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Refs letting them bang.

 

1/12/2022 8:10 pm  #18


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Time to pick it up. Fordham starting to take over.

 

1/12/2022 8:19 pm  #19


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Rams are good at taking charges & refs are taking the bait.

Last edited by phil95 (1/12/2022 8:27 pm)

 

1/12/2022 8:28 pm  #20


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Ugly second half. Still enough time though not looking good.

 

1/12/2022 8:29 pm  #21


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

This is very disappointing. No spirit, discipline, & poor effort in the 2nd half from the top of the roster to the bottom. 

Too much hero ball from Primo. Ayers is not a point guard.

 

1/12/2022 8:29 pm  #22


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Getting absolutely smoked in transition in this one. Every turnover, every missed shot is a fast break opportunity for them. And unfortunately, way too many turnovers and missed shots in this half.

 

1/12/2022 8:30 pm  #23


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Up 13 now down 8...


SORRY, WE ARE BACK TO THE GROUND FLOOR....
 

1/12/2022 8:36 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Ohans 7 blocks


SORRY, WE ARE BACK TO THE GROUND FLOOR....
 

1/12/2022 8:36 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - Fordham Rams (A)

Fordham gets in your face on D.

 

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