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12/27/2022 7:54 pm  #1


Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 12/28/2022 at the University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH

Per KenPom (363 D-1 Teams):
Dukes #118 (10-3; 0-0 A-10) vs Dayton Flyers #59 (8-5; 0-0 A-10)
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 8, 69-61 - Dukes with 22% probability of a win.
https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=2333

Per Haslametrics:
Dukes #91 vs Dayton #75
Game prediction:  Dukes lose by 4, 64.49-60.51
https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=4359&neut=0

Betting line: Dukes are 8 point underdogs; Over/Under 131
Duquesne 7-6 Against the Spread: Dayton 5-8 ATS

Duquesne Game Notes: https://goduquesne.com/news/2022/12/26/mens-basketball-preview-duquesne-at-dayton.aspx
Dayton Game Notes: https://daytonflyers.com/news/2022/12/26/mens-basketball-mens-basketball-opens-atlantic-10-conference-play-at-home-with-duquesne.aspx

Sports Reference College Basketball Team Pages:
Duquesne:  https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duquesne/2023.html
Dayton:  https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/dayton/2023.html

Dukes KenPom Best Wins: UCSB (103); DePaul (121); Colgate (125); Indiana St. (127); Ball State (165)
Dukes KenPom Worst Losses: Kentucky (10); Marshall (81); New Mexico St (113)
Dayton KenPom Best Wins: Wyoming (124); SMU (154); UNC Ashville (217)
Dayton KenPom Worst Losses: BYU (91); UNLV (75); NC State (51)

Shooting Percentage Offense/Defense (per KenPom)
Dukes 3 Point:  Offense 36.9%, 56 in D-1; Defense 35.9%, 269 in D-1
Dayton 3 Point:  Offense 24.9%, 314 in D-1; Defense 33.3%, 108 in D-1
Dukes 2 Point:  Offense 49.2%, 203 in D-1; Defense 47.4%, 106 in D-1
Dayton 2 Point:  Offense 54.1%, 100 in D-1; Defense 43.5%, 24 in D-1
Dukes FT:  Offense 69.7%, 215 in D-1; Defense 72.0%, 224 in D-1
Dayton FT:  Offense 69.1%, 238 in D-1; Defense 68.0%, 90 in D-1

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions (per KenPom)
Dayton Adj Offense Efficiency - 104.6; 118 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 103.2; 195 in D-1
Dayton Adj Defense Efficiency - 92.1; 28 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 107.6; 68 in D-1
Dayton Adj Tempo - 64.7; 330 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 67.0; 258 in D-1

Miscellaneous (per KenPom)
D-1 Experience - Dayton 1.96 yrs; 166 in D-1; Dukes 2.10 yrs; 135 in D-1
Average Height - Dayton 79.1"; 3 in D-1; Dukes 76.4"; 295 in D-1

 

12/28/2022 2:33 am  #2


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

I've been watching a few Dayton games that are online. Here's a couple that I watched on YouTube:
BYU:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIi5HBBiNjw
Western Michigan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIi5HBBiNjw

 

12/28/2022 4:31 am  #3


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

most recent game (Alcorn State):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Xfn6EUiFc

 

12/28/2022 8:21 am  #4


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Brewer and Gunn available, but limited for tonight’s game. Rozier gametime decision.

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1608088167000711172

     Thread Starter
 

12/28/2022 9:15 am  #5


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

This is a great opportunity for the Dukes to make a statement early in conference play that they are serious about winning this thing.  "We are well able to take this land".  Go Dukes!

 

12/28/2022 10:22 am  #6


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Cautiously optimistic tonight.    Good to have Brewer back.

 

12/28/2022 10:26 am  #7


     Thread Starter
 

12/28/2022 12:19 pm  #8


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

townsonkid wrote:

Cautiously optimistic tonight.    Good to have Brewer back.

This seasons Dayton team isn't a powerhouse and the Dukes have a good chance tonight against them. 

 

12/28/2022 1:14 pm  #9


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Dayton has been playing without their two point guards. They are a powerhouse inside. If Dukes can get into the 70s, I like our chances.

 

12/28/2022 1:30 pm  #10


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Go to the https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/atlantic-10-on-track-to-be-one-bid-league-with-0-17-record-in-quad-1-games/HN5H3DRSOZGVVC5KCEKHON7XZ4/     This is an Excellent article on the A-10 and the best teams, worst teams, best players, coaches, etc.  Very well done and a nice read.

daytondailynews.com
 

 

12/28/2022 5:25 pm  #11


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Hopefully the injured guards are ready to go, but at least the injured bigs are already back. We'll need all hands on deck against their frontcourt. The perimeter may be where they are most vulnerable, but we can’t settle for outside shots.

I like the matchup, but also have seen this story before. I do believe these Dukes are a top tier A-10 team, but am just not ready to call a win at Dayton. Flyers 66 Dukes 64. Take the under because it will be a battle and take the Dukes to cover. Hopefully they find a way to win and the bet still pays off.

Last edited by luckymcd (12/28/2022 5:40 pm)

 

12/28/2022 5:41 pm  #12


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

8.5 points looks pretty pretty good. Go Dukes

 

12/28/2022 8:00 pm  #13


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

It's a good thing Brewer is back! Big factor is keeping the Dukes in the game early.

 

12/28/2022 8:05 pm  #14


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Down 5 at half. I’ll take this especially considering both of our starting bigs missed a majority of the half in foul trouble. Great to have Brewer back. Dayton is awfully physical…refs called a lot and still let them get away with a lot. When Dayton makes from the perimeter they become impossible to guard. Law of averages says it won’t continue. Go dukes!

 

12/28/2022 8:10 pm  #15


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Gotta get inside out game to get DeDe open looks

 

12/28/2022 8:38 pm  #16


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Gunn clearly has nothing to offer tonight & clearly rusty on where he is supposed to be on offense. Classic KD to keep him in the game while leaving the super effective Barre on the bench.

 

12/28/2022 8:45 pm  #17


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Phil, respectfully, Gunn (while i agree clearly rusty) allows us to be able to space the floor because of his ability to shoot the 3. Also, Barre has been incredible tonight, but clearly tired. I have to imagine this has been his most minutes all year. And against an NBA player

 

12/28/2022 8:46 pm  #18


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Floor spacing critical against Dayton’s length.

 

12/28/2022 9:04 pm  #19


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Just like Marshall. they are going to have trouble against teams with size inside. Double that if they shoot totally cold from outside.


Vicimus Atlanticum decem
 

12/28/2022 9:09 pm  #20


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Dayton height is too much.   Barre has to become a star.  No other bigs can play at a high A10 level.  Thought Dixon could have done more than Reece and Williams, they combined for 4 pts and 2 rebs in 27 min.  Dixon played 4 minutes.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Why is that place always packed?

Last edited by townsonkid (12/28/2022 9:12 pm)

 

12/28/2022 9:09 pm  #21


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

Dukes F- situational basketball on offense. Coach Dambrot had perfected the Matt Canada offense. Dayton without two starting guards put on their big boy pants. No response by the Dukes & staff. Sorry but Duquesne miles away from an effective offensive scheme. AAU offense.Robert Morris lost to Dayton by 10. God forbids bothRMU & Pitt did not play Duquesne.

 

12/28/2022 9:15 pm  #22


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

We have the highest scoring offense in the league going into tonight. They have the best defense in the league. Let’s not overreact

 

12/28/2022 9:28 pm  #23


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

CityDuke wrote:

We have the highest scoring offense in the league going into tonight. They have the best defense in the league. Let’s not overreact

You want this message board to not overreact?  Good luck.

Last edited by Simms (12/28/2022 9:28 pm)


"You have to be realistic about these things."  - Logen Ninefingers
 

12/28/2022 9:28 pm  #24


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

CityDuke wrote:

We have the highest scoring offense in the league going into tonight. They have the best defense in the league. Let’s not overreact

Overreact? Down 10 majority of game & Dukes chucking 3s from Dayton to the North Pole. 1 rebounder against 4. Really? Sorry if I missed the Princeton offense.

 

12/28/2022 9:30 pm  #25


Re: Game Thread - University of Dayton Flyers

 With all due respect to Dayton's defense, Dukes ball handling and offensive schemes were not good and the outside shooting cold 

 

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