Hmmm, well all's I can say is, I hope for one of two things next Sunday evening:

1) We shot the lights out in Brooklyn and put 3-4 wins together to win the A10 and are now waiting to see where we're seeded in the NCAAs. Not terribly likely, but the '09 conference tourney run was sparked by 3-point shooting and this team has shown that it can get hot from outside.
2) We fell short of winning the tourney but managed 3 more wins and are waiting to see if we get an at-large NIT bid. Of course after losing to Davidson, I suppose such hypotheticals are meaningless. But the A10 has landed two NCAA and four NIT bids the last two years when its overall conference rating wasn't that much better than this year's. So it's hardly unheard of that the A10 can get four NIT bids. Remember, the 2021 NIT was only a 16-team tourney, albeit with no automatic bids. 

So I'll say it again, I think we're in the NIT with 22 wins and we'll get some consideration at 21 but will likely need some help in terms of having fewer regular season conference champs and NCAA bubble teams bounced to the NIT by conference tourney upsets. Patterns do matter and past patterns show that the selection committee pays a lot of attention to conference affiliation and overall win totals when filling out the NIT field.

I'll leave it to Tejas Duke to come up with the odds for these scenarios. But first things first, let's just beat UMass!

 

I see our group of posters as having a wide variety of opinions as to what the Dukes are capable of & what level of success is currently, "enough".

For me, this year's success has been an impressive recovery from last year's disaster that sets a strong foundation, if the player retention percentage is high, for another step forward next season. That seems like quite a positive result given the possible outcomes imagined at the beginning of the season.

On the other hand, if KD & company can't produce at least an NIT team next season, he must be fired in order for me to believe that the administration has any intention of having excellence in its basketball program. 7 years is just too long not to achieve this modest goal.

I do not believe that the Dukes have it in them this year to win the A-10 tournament. From what I have seen, the consistency, basketball IQ, discipline, & in-game coaching to string together 4 victories in a win or go home format aren't yet there for this group. As a result, I would  be thrilled to see the Dukes win even 2 tourney games.

I am quite happy that this season's team has been so competitive & enjoyable to watch. Right now, I am optimistic for the future. Nevertheless, a true assessment of this season's success is not possible until we see what the roster looks like on May 1.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble but we have ZERO chance at an NIT bid. There are 32 spots, figure a minimum of 8-10 spots for regular season champs who lose in their conference tournament, which leaves 22-24 spots. If we use Lunardi's projections from this morning, the first 8 out of the NCAA tournament are UNC, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Michigan, Utah St., Charleston, Penn St. and Texas Tech. Even if we figure Charleston wins the CAA tournament and goes to the NCAA, that is 7 more teams going to the NIT. So we are down to 15-17 spots. 

From there, it is a long list of teams that would make the NIT ahead of Duquesne when considering NET, SOR, KenPom and attractiveness to the NIT: Tulane, Cincinnati, UCF, Dayton, St. Louis, Fordham, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Villanova, St. John's, Nebraska, N. Texas, UAB, Kent St., Drake, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington St., Vanderbilt, Florida, Santa Clara and Liberty.

The math doesn't add up unfortunately. With that being said, I do think we can win the A-10 Tournament and go the NCAA!!!