Will be interesting to see how the Dukes defend Holmes this time around.   

Gotta think that after Friday night's loss, Dayton is in a bad mood & feeling the heat to produce a home-court blowout. Let's hope they are tight, feeling the pressure, & can't get out of their heads. Busting up their defensive pressure would go a long way toward eroding their confidence.

I think that their NET, KenPom, etc...ratings are exaggerated by 12-20 spots. I feel like the Duquesne team that showed up Saturday has more like a 35% chance of victory. 

MikeR wrote:

townsonkid wrote:

Will be interesting to see how the Dukes defend Holmes this time around.   

I don't know, but those 3 uncontested 3s he hit were the backbreakers last game. Can't let that happen again.
 

Holmes is ranked by KenPom metrics as the #2 player of the year, behind Zach Edney. https://kenpom.com/kpoy.php

He’s shooting 39% from 3. Not a fluke the first time against the Dukes.

Looks like the line opened at Dayton -8.5

Last edited by BluffHunter (2/12/2024 9:58 pm)

This game is a gigantic opportunity for KD to polish his reputation as an A-10 coach by doing several things he has failed to do.
-Beat a ranked team
-Build late season momentum
-Get a signature conference road win

Last time they didn’t double Holmes. I’d try it this time. Dayton is very good but I don’t think they are as good as that particular ranking.

In case anyone needs a laugh before the game. Every time we play Dayton I can't get this out of my head: https://www.reddit.com/r/NormMacdonald/comments/nszye8/norm_visits_a_fortune_teller/

phil95 wrote:

I would like to see  Drame start tomorrow instead of Jake. Tre Williams should get the first crack at Holmes. I like Drame/Tre in the double teams as well as pick-and-roll switches involving Holmes & Brea. Necas was pretty solid on Holmes in the first game in limited minutes so he can help with this endeavor.

I don't think teams foul Homes enough when he is close to the basket. The Dukes' roster is packed with players that are big enough to bother him & foul them like they mean it. He is only a 69% FT shooter. Trying some extra physicality on him instead of walling up against sure-thing layups & dunks seems worth a shot. I also want to see some sporadic 3/2 zone defense.

Rozier has to be aggressive about drawing charges & shooting open 3s.

Dae Dae has to take it to the hole so he can dish, finish, or shoot FTs.

I agree with all of that. Especially Dae Dae getting to the line. He needs to be driving more.

Play loose, no one expects us to win there. Shoot all open 3's. Take chances for steals. Be aggressive and take all transitions to the hoop. Just then, maybe we pull it out.

Although the puns for him coming off the bench practically write themselves, I like the idea of Fuse starting. He leads the team in + / - by a fairly wide margin. Dixon is third, so typically I'd say he should be starting too, but I do think coming off the bench has helped him to be aggressive while staying out of foul trouble. I'm torn on what to do with Williams. I think he is better starting, but he's dead last in + / - and the only one who is even close is Matus. I never feel like he's hurting the team when he's out there, but those numbers might explain his reduction in minutes over the past few weeks even while he's been starting.

I do like the idea of using all our big man fouls this time out. We don't stand much of a chance in a shoot out. Whoever came up with the mud wrestling analogy, it's a good one. I'm not saying make it into a brawl, but the muddier the game is the better for us. They're only 4-4 when scoring less than 70. We're 10-1 when holding teams below 70. Obviously it can't be the only goal, but we need to start there. Keep it below 70 and we have a chance. I do think we keep it close, but don't think we keep them under 70. I'll say Flyers 71 Dukes 63.

Last edited by luckymcd (2/13/2024 7:12 pm)

Great start Dukes. That sure looked like it should have been a 4 point play to me. Clark anticipated the reach and started the shooting motion. And it happened to go in haha. That wouldn’t even have been the luckiest shot of the half either. Holmes threw two lefty prayers up and they were answered. One hit the top of the backboard.

Guys are representing,