To the administrator -  can you instruct me how to include my jpg file in a message here?   Sorry, but I wasn't able to...

Thank you for handling!

The idea here was to present a birds eye view of the roster nucleus -  so one could 'move the pieces around,' and envision different types of offense and defense.   The all important defensive capabilities were not considered here - and would obviously add another dimension to any approach taken... 
  

 

After the Dukes unbelievable run this past season, it is great to feel optimistic about the future of Duquesne basketball.  I'm very optimistic about where the Duquesne basketball program is today; I don't believe that the program has ever been in this good of a position to sustain a good level of consistent success. That being said, I'm less optimistic about this coming season.  There are going to be expected bumps for our first year coach and staff; I'm optimistic that they will be able to adjust and learn as the season progresses.

There have been several comments about the quality and depth of this roster.  When analyzing this coming year, you have to take into account what significant production the Dukes are losing with Dae Dae, Jimmy and Fousseyni; can this production be replaced?  How good are the transfers coming in?  As usual for me, I turned to some analytics sites and took a deep dive into the stats at EvanMiya.com to get a little clearer picture of the roster.  Based purely on the production and analytics from last year, this looks to be a pretty pedestrian roster.  Half of the roster is analytically average.  It is really lacking in offensive firepower; where are the points going to come from? 

The good news is that these analytics cover the entire year; and I trust my eyeballs over analytics.  We all saw the improvements by Dixon, DiMichele, Necas, Barre and Hronsky as the season progressed.  If all 5 of these players are healthy this summer, I expect that their development as players, especially offensively, will speed up significantly (remember that Dixon, Barre and Hronsky were all out of action during last summer).  I really liked Edwards and Corbett's game and style watching them compete against the Dukes. I also really like what I saw on video of Edwards and Wilborn.  The wild card for me is Tre Dinkins; I really don't have a feel on what the Dukes have with him.  I do have faith in Dru that he will be able to coach this team, especially the transfers, up defensively.  The coaching staff has their work cut out for them.

Below are the numbers and explanations on EvanMiya's performance ratings.  Go Dukes!

• OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor. OBPR is interpreted as the number of offensive points per 100 possessions above D1 average expected by the player’s team if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
• DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor. DBPR is interpreted as the number of defensive points per 100 possessions better than (below) D1 average expected to be allowed by the player’s team if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
• BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player’s OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor. BPR is interpreted as the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent the player’s team is expected to be if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.

Phoenix agree with CLK. Great job👍 Love this board.

Thanks, guys.  These rankings and analytics are not the be all, end all way of looking at players.  But I believe that every college program now uses (and sometimes pays significant money for comprehensive access to) these analytic tools.  Dambrot and his staff extensively used them as a roadmap and a measurement tool.

CLK, I agree with you on Dinkins; he seemed to have a lot of interest.  His raw numbers look very good; the analytical deep dive is not so friendly, especially defensively.  To me, Dinkins might be the key to next season since we are very limited at guard - and the A10 has historically been a guard's league.

I think there is a lot of raw, undeveloped talent with this team.  The coaching staff has their work cut out for them and I have faith that they will be able to coach up this group defensively and get them playing as a team.  And hopefully playing time will be a motivator for these incoming transfers, like it was for last year's team. 

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

Thanks, guys.  These rankings and analytics are not the be all, end all way of looking at players.  But I believe that every college program now uses (and sometimes pays significant money for comprehensive access to) these analytic tools.  Dambrot and his staff extensively used them as a roadmap and a measurement tool.

CLK, I agree with you on Dinkins; he seemed to have a lot of interest.  His raw numbers look very good; the analytical deep dive is not so friendly, especially defensively.  To me, Dinkins might be the key to next season since we are very limited at guard - and the A10 has historically been a guard's league.

I think there is a lot of raw, undeveloped talent with this team.  The coaching staff has their work cut out for them and I have faith that they will be able to coach up this group defensively and get them playing as a team.  And hopefully playing time will be a motivator for these incoming transfers, like it was for last year's team. 

Not dismissing analytics at all, but Crawford, Corbett, and Edwards sure passed the "eye test" for me last year in their games against the Dukes.
 

Just wondering, but since KD's teams generally didn't push the action and therefore tended to be a low scoring team, doesn't that affect those offensive stats different then if these kids played on a faster pace team that takes more shots early on the clock and didn't take nearly 30 seconds getting the ball to one scorer? Also, walking the ball down court waste time and leaves a team with less time to set up plays and tends to make the last kid with the ball to chuck up a last second shot, thus reducing the percentage of making that shot? If your team scores an ave. of 85 per game vs 55 that would affect some measure of offensive performance. Nice work on those stats and roster. It looks like it took some time and effort putting it all together,  Great looking roster for next year.

Last edited by NapaDuke (6/14/2024 11:01 am)

DU article. No mention of Aekins.

https://goduquesne.com/news/2024/6/17/mens-basketball-duquesne-welcomes-seven-for-2024-25-season.aspx