Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum / Opportunity to build Postseason Resume in A10

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 12/20/2023 9:01 pm

The strength of the A10 in non conference play will give the Dukes a great chance to build a solid resume / team sheet for postseason consideration.

As it stands today, the Dukes are looking to have 9 opportunities to secure Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins in conference play; that's half of the conference schedule. Right now, the Dukes are ranked 69 in the NET. Here's the current breakdown:
Quad 1 Record: 0-2
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 3-0
Quad 4 Record: 4-0

Here's the 9 opportunities, subject to change.
Dayton (30) Home: Quad 1
Dayton (30) Away: Quad 1
Saint Joseph's (51) Home: Quad 2
Saint Joseph's (51) Away: Quad 1
George Mason (73) Away: Quad 1
St. Bonaventure (75) Home: Quad 2
St. Bonaventure (75) Away: Quad 1
UMass (89) Away: Quad 2
VCU (93) Away: Quad 2

Our opponents will get a Quad 1 win if they beat the Dukes at the Cooper Fieldhouse; a Quad 2 win beating the Dukes at their home. It's going to be a crazy conference battle; buckle up.

PS The Santa Clara game will be a Quad 3 result for the Dukes. The Cleary game has no impact. And Chicago State will be a Quad 4 game.

**Posted by Ironduke81** 12/20/2023 9:07 pm

P Rising you my friend are killing it. Much respect👍

**Posted by WashPaRick** 12/20/2023 9:54 pm

I'm a little worried about my prediction of not losing back to back games this year with Santa Clara and Creighton up next. Wait a second, that's not Creighton. Cleary, who dat?

**Posted by SkepticAl** 12/20/2023 11:56 pm

WashPaRick wrote:
I'm a little worried about my prediction of not losing back to back games this year with Santa Clara and Creighton up next. Wait a second, that's not Creighton. Cleary, who dat?

Cleary is the team coached by one of the Thomas Twins -- They are 0-11 -- one of the losses was to Point Park 95-61 I KID YOU NOT!!!

BEAT Santa Clara - worry about Cleary Afterwards.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 12/21/2023 9:55 am

https://x.com/a10stats/status/1737822955713831295

Four A10 teams including the Dukes have a positive wins above the bubble ranking.

**Posted by BluffHunter** 12/21/2023 1:50 pm

Decent slate of A10 hoops throughout the day today. Intrigued to see Saint Joes play at Charleston tonight.

**Posted by luckymcd** 12/21/2023 2:17 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
https://x.com/a10stats/status/1737822955713831295

Four A10 teams including the Dukes have a positive wins above the bubble ranking.

Is there an explanation for what that stat actually means? It sounds like it’s saying if the season ended today we’d be in the tournament, but I really don’t see that. I’m pleased with the improvement of the team, but an A-10 team with a NET in the 60s (and barely at that) who only has a win over UC Irvine to hang its hat on isn’t going dancing without a conference title. I was thinking it was a straight ranking and the top 68 are above the bubble, but then I saw Mason “above the bubble” at 78. Did the tournament expand and nobody told me?

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 12/21/2023 2:34 pm

luckymcd wrote:
PhoenixRising2 wrote:
https://x.com/a10stats/status/1737822955713831295

Four A10 teams including the Dukes have a positive wins above the bubble ranking.
Is there an explanation for what that stat actually means? It sounds like it’s saying if the season ended today we’d be in the tournament, but I really don’t see that. I’m pleased with the improvement of the team, but an A-10 team with a NET in the 60s (and barely at that) who only has a win over UC Irvine to hang its hat on isn’t going dancing without a conference title. I was thinking it was a straight ranking and the top 68 are above the bubble, but then I saw Mason “above the bubble” at 78. Did the tournament expand and nobody told me?

Per Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group:

Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

**Posted by Duques102** 12/22/2023 12:26 pm

Best A10 game of the day is probably 9-2 Mason at 8-2 Tulane at 2 Eastern. Tulane is -4.5 and Mason features our old friend Amari Kelly who has been really good for them this year.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 12/22/2023 4:39 pm

Duques102 wrote:
Best A10 game of the day is probably 9-2 Mason at 8-2 Tulane at 2 Eastern. Tulane is -4.5 and Mason features our old friend Amari Kelly who has been really good for them this year.

Nice win by George Mason today over a good Tulane team. Helps to offset the crappy losses yesterday by Rhode Island at home to New Hampshire and Fordham at home to Central Connecticut. BTW, those annoying Fordham fans who were yapping all last year are awful quiet now. I was also surprised that Charleston beat Saint Joseph’s; the Hawks got within 2 late in the second half and missed a game tying 3 with 11 seconds left. Not great for the conference but that Charleston win looks a bit better on the Dukes sheet.

**Posted by BluffHunter** 12/22/2023 4:53 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Duques102 wrote:
Best A10 game of the day is probably 9-2 Mason at 8-2 Tulane at 2 Eastern. Tulane is -4.5 and Mason features our old friend Amari Kelly who has been really good for them this year.
Nice win by George Mason today over a good Tulane team. Helps to offset the crappy losses yesterday by Rhode Island at home to New Hampshire and Fordham at home to Central Connecticut. BTW, those annoying Fordham fans who were yapping all last year are awful quiet now. I was also surprised that Charleston beat Saint Joseph’s; the Hawks got within 2 late in the second half and missed a game tying 3 with 11 seconds left. Not great for the conference but that Charleston win looks a bit better on the Dukes sheet.

Amari Kelly is doing very well for GMU, I'm very happy to see that. 4th double-double of the year for him today. Tulane has a good record but lost to Bradley... still, Mason is legit and it should be taken into consideration that their home and home matchups are with GW, Richmond. Loyola, and URI.

**Posted by luckymcd** 12/22/2023 10:31 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
Per Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group:

Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

Thanks for the explanation. The numbers make sense now, as our performance so far might be good enough to put us on the bubble, but I don't think good enough for an at-large bid. It seems like a more useful stat would be wins above last in or last out or something like that since being on the bubble doesn't really matter to anyone. Being in the tournament does.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 1/05/2024 1:37 pm

https://fieldof68.beehiiv.com/p/atlantic-10-james-madison-arizona

You have to have a paid subscription to read the entire article, but they are bullish on the A10 this year getting multiple bids.