The 2nd through 8th teams in the conference rank from 76 to 104 in KenPom. This is not a huge hill to climb for the Dukes; they have shown that they can compete with teams on this level and also have shown that they can lose to these teams (for the season, the Dukes have a 3-3 record against KenPom teams ranked from 76-104).
With 5 games remaining, a 3-2 finish is expected. But if they can win either the George Mason or VCU game on the road, a 4-1 finish would put them into good position to earn the #6 seed. Just like most teams in the A-10, I think the Dukes can beat or lose to any other team.
The Dukes defense is what will carry them through the balance of this season; they have played at an very high level since the first Bonnies game, with the only outlier being the putrid Davidson game. If they can make some shots, the Dukes have a chance to finish this year very strong. A long way to go in this season.