Duquesne Dukes Fan Forum / Game Thread - Virginia Commonwealth University Rams

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 3/04/2024 8:16 pm

7:00pm EST tip on Tuesday 3/5/2024 at the Siegel Center, Richmond, VA

Betting line: Dukes are 4½ point underdogs; Over/Under 135½
Duquesne 13-15 Against the Spread: VCU 18-11 ATS

NET Ranking: Dukes 98; VCU 75

Per KenPom (362 D-1 Teams):
Dukes #100 (18-11; 8-8 A10) vs VCU #83 (19-10; 11-5 A10)
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 5, 69-64 - Dukes with 32% probability of a win.
https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=5445
Per Haslametrics:
Dukes #110 vs VCU #74
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 7, 69.98-62.98
https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=5363&neut=0
Per BartTorvik:
Dukes #98 vs VCU #85
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 4, 68-64 - Dukes with a 32% probability of a win.
https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duquesne&year=2024
Duquesne Preview: https://goduquesne.com/news/2024/3/4/mens-basketball-dukes-conclude-road-slate-at-vcu.aspx Duquesne Game Notes: https://goduquesne.com/documents/2024/3/4/30_VCU.pdf VCU Game Notes:
Sports Reference College Basketball Team Pages:
Duquesne:https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duquesne/men/2024.html VCU:https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/virginia-commonwealth/men/2024.html
Dukes KenPom Best Wins: Bradley (70); UC Irvine (74); St.Bonaventure-2 (801; College of Charleston (104); George Mason (105): Saint Joseph's (107); Saint Peter's (182)
Dukes KenPom Worst Losses: Fordham (201); Santa Clara (117); Saint Joseph's (107); Davidson (106); Loyola Chicago (96); UMass (85); Richmond (77); Princeton (64)

VCU KenPom Best Wins: Dayton (27); Richmond (77); Samford (86); Penn St. (90); Loyola Chicago (96): George Mason (105); Saint Joseph's (107)
VCU KenPom Worst Losses: Norfolk St. (254); George Washington (234); UMass (85); St. Bonaventure-2 (81); Richmond (77); Memphis (72); McNeese St. (66)

Shooting Percentage Offense/Defense (per KenPom)
Dukes 3 Point: Offense 33.1%, 215 in D-1; Defense 32.0%, 71 in D-1
VCU 3 Point: Offense 36.2%, 63 in D-1; Defense 30.3%, 16 in D-1
Dukes 2 Point: Offense 50.1%, 186 in D-1; Defense 48.3%, 86 in D-1
VCU 2 Point: Offense 50.6%, 166 in D-1; Defense 46.5%, 39 in D-1
Dukes FT: Offense 70.7%, 234 in D-1; Defense 69.7%, 64 in D-1
VCU FT: Offense 79.3%, 7 in D-1; Defense 73.8%, 296 in D-1

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions (per KenPom)
VCU Adj Offense Efficiency - 110.0; 119 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 100.2; 54 in D-1
VCU Adj Defense Efficiency - 100.0; 48 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 107.2; 174 in D-1
VCU Adj Tempo - 66.0; 284 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 67.1; 226 in D-1

Miscellaneous (per KenPom)
Experience - VCU 1.65 yrs; 229 in D-1; Dukes 2.55 yrs; 47 in D-1
Average Height - VCU 77.9"; 66 in D-1; Dukes 76.5"; 288 in D-1

**Posted by NapaDuke** 3/04/2024 8:24 pm

There is one out of range factor. Clark killed this team last year. He really doesn't like them and they could not contain him. I still think, Clark does not like them and they just may not be able to stop him. I really hope Clark still doesn't like them that bad. Go Dukes.

Last edited by NapaDuke (3/05/2024 2:24 am)

**Posted by BluffHunter** 3/05/2024 10:09 am

NapaDuke wrote:
There is one out of range factor. Clark killed this team last year. He really doesn't like them and they could not contain him. I still think, Clark does not like them and they just may not be able to stop him. I really hope Clark still doesn't like them that bad. Go Dukes.

That was at Duquesne... This is his first time back at VCU since he left so I'm sure he wants to beat them in their gym just as bad as he wanted to win last year. I saw some talk on X that VCU fans are excited to see him come back and will give him a warm welcome.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 3/05/2024 10:14 am

BluffHunter wrote:
NapaDuke wrote:
There is one out of range factor. Clark killed this team last year. He really doesn't like them and they could not contain him. I still think, Clark does not like them and they just may not be able to stop him. I really hope Clark still doesn't like them that bad. Go Dukes.
That was at Duquesne... This is his first time back at VCU since he left so I'm sure he wants to beat them in their gym just as bad as he wanted to win last year. I saw some talk on X that VCU fans are excited to see him come back and will give him a warm welcome.

Jimmy seems to be his best when he lets the game come to him versus trying to force the action, both offensively and defensively. I’m hoping that a couple of his teammates get off to a fast start so that Jimmy doesn’t think he needs to do everything himself.

**Posted by El Presidente** 3/05/2024 11:18 am

NapaDuke wrote:
There is one out of range factor. Clark killed this team last year. He really doesn't like them and they could not contain him. I still think, Clark does not like them and they just may not be able to stop him. I really hope Clark still doesn't like them that bad. Go Dukes.

Great game last year. Sat behind two VCU fans. Clark stole the ball, went up and bounced it off the glass, caught it and slammed it home. One turned to the other and said, "We used to have this guy."

**Posted by phil95** 3/05/2024 11:42 am

The Dukes need to come out with & maintain the highest level of experience energy tonight in order to win. Thus is a very tough opponent.

I really hope Rozier is not starting & is used sparingly. The offense simply dies when he runs things in the half-court.

**Posted by El Presidente** 3/05/2024 12:35 pm

phil95 wrote:
The Dukes need to come out with & maintain the highest level of experience energy tonight in order to win. Thus is a very tough opponent.

I really hope Rozier is not starting & is used sparingly. The offense simply dies when he runs things in the half-court.

Couldn't agree more with this. 10 minutes max.
I will take Dusan for 15-20 though.

**Posted by Styles1229** 3/05/2024 1:36 pm

I agree about Rozier but I do think he should get some open looks when’s he’s in there tonight and if he can knock them down it could be a difference maker. The scouting report seems to be “blitz Clark and Grant on the perimeter” but when Rozier is in there teams sit back and close off all the passing lanes. They give Kareem space they do not give Clark and Grant. Kareem can and should exploit it by knocking down 3s

**Posted by CityDuke** 3/05/2024 2:09 pm

I disagree on the Rozier takes. I think he is our best ball handler and a true point guard. Could definitely come in handy if VCU ups the pressure. I trust Clark running the point, but I’d rather have Rozier break the pressure so Clark can focus his energy on doing his thing offensively and shutting down Jackson/Shulga on the other end. I think 15 for Rozier and more if he gets it going.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 3/05/2024 3:27 pm

VCU has a very tall lineup; their starters are 6'5", 6'5", 6'8", 6'9" and 6'10". They have a 5'10" backup point guard, Jason Nelson, who plays a decent number of minutes; I suspect that we will see Rozier only when Nelson is in the game. Besides Nelson, all of the subs are 6'4" or taller. We should see a good bit of Necas and Hronsky tonight at the guard position.

**Posted by BluffHunter** 3/05/2024 3:38 pm

PhoenixRising2 wrote:
VCU has a very tall lineup; their starters are 6'5", 6'5", 6'8", 6'9" and 6'10". They have a 5'10" backup point guard, Jason Nelson, who plays a decent number of minutes; I suspect that we will see Rozier only when Nelson is in the game. Besides Nelson, all of the subs are 6'4" or taller. We should see a good bit of Necas and Hronsky tonight at the guard position.

Necas has made a difference every time he has been put in lately. I wouldn't mind seeing him play more minutes if the hand is hot.

**Posted by MikeR** 3/05/2024 6:35 pm

Shulga might be out for VCU per their message board.

**Posted by PhoenixRising2** 3/05/2024 6:38 pm

MikeR wrote:
Shulga might be out for VCU per their message board.

https://x.com/vcuramnation/status/1765155727994245370
Looks to be true.

**Posted by DuqLaw95** 3/05/2024 7:02 pm

Another day, another issue with the terrible ESPN+ app

**Posted by applecorps** 3/05/2024 7:13 pm

DuqLaw95 wrote:
Another day, another issue with the terrible ESPN+ app

ESPN+ is trash.

**Posted by MikeR** 3/05/2024 7:14 pm

DuqLaw95 wrote:
Another day, another issue with the terrible ESPN+ app

ESPN+ ripped us off this year.

**Posted by BluffHunter** 3/05/2024 7:20 pm

Thankfully there isn’t huge seeding implications for us or anything but still so frustrating as I was looking forward to watching all day!

**Posted by phil95** 3/05/2024 7:21 pm

Other games are streaming with no issues!

**Posted by CalDuke** 3/05/2024 7:22 pm

Yep ...no ESPN+....A-Holes!

**Posted by luckymcd** 3/05/2024 7:25 pm

So I guess I won't watch the game tonight. I know this is unlikely, but is anybody in the Richmond area but not at the game? Is the TV broadcast working?

**Posted by townsonkid** 3/05/2024 7:26 pm

Its on now.

I texted them complaining it happens too often.

**Posted by luckymcd** 3/05/2024 7:27 pm

Maybe I should have said something earlier. Within seconds of hitting submit the broadcast started. Of course I don't know how they did it, but looks like a good start for the Dukes.

**Posted by gjgsr** 3/05/2024 7:27 pm

Typical .... ESPN+ strikes again...

**Posted by BluffHunter** 3/05/2024 7:29 pm

It’s on ESPN+ now, media time out

**Posted by luckymcd** 3/05/2024 7:40 pm

Coming in I thought this was VCU’s game unless Clark went off against them again. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen, but we’re right in the game. We’ve got to keep up the defensive intensity and keep running our offense. We’re getting good looks, they just aren’t falling for the most part.