Game Thread - University of Massachusetts Minutemen

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Posted by PhoenixRising2
1/02/2024 8:21 pm
#1

7:00pm EST tip on Wednesday 1/3/2024 at the Mullins Center, Amherst, MA

Betting line: Dukes are 1½ point underdogs; Over/Under 155½
Duquesne 4-6 Against the Spread: UMass 8-4 ATS

NET Ranking:  Dukes 77; UMass 91

Per KenPom (362 D-1 Teams):
Dukes #92 (9-3; 8-3 vs D-1) vs UMass #106 (9-3)
Game prediction: Dukes lose by 2, 79-77 - Dukes with 45% probability of a win.
https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=2515 
Per Haslametrics:
Dukes #103 vs UMass #78
Game prediction:  Dukes lose by 6, 81.08-75.02
https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=249&neut=0
Per BartTorvik:
Dukes #78 vs UMass #91
Game prediction:  Dukes lose by 3, 81-78 - Dukes with a 39% probability of a win.
https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duquesne&year=2024 
Duquesne Preview: https://goduquesne.com/news/2024/1/2/mens-basketball-a-10-play-commences-at-massachusetts.aspx Duquesne Game Notes: https://goduquesne.com/documents/2024/1/2/13_UMass.pdf UMass Game Notes: https://umassathletics.com/news/2024/1/2/mens-basketball-massachusetts-faces-duquesne-in-atlantic-10-opener 
Sports Reference College Basketball Team Pages:
Duquesne:  https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duquesne/men/2024.html UMass: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/massachusetts/men/2024.html 
Dukes KenPom Best Wins: UC Irvine (68); Bradley (121); College of Charleston (122); Cleveland St. (160)   
Dukes KenPom Worst Losses: Santa Clara (123); Princeton (56); Nebraska (53) 
UMass KenPom Best Wins: West Virginia (125); South Florida (143); UMass Lowell (144) 
UMass KenPom Worst Losses: Harvard (189); Towson (174); Georgia Tech (112)

Shooting Percentage Offense/Defense (per KenPom)
Dukes 3 Point:  Offense 34.9%, 112 in D-1; Defense 35.9%, 301 in D-1
UMass 3 Point:  Offense 33.2%, 182 in D-1; Defense 31.5%, 105 in D-1
Dukes 2 Point:  Offense 51.1%, 149 in D-1; Defense 45.5%, 44 in D-1
UMass 2 Point:  Offense 54.0%, 66 in D-1; Defense 46.7%, 72 in D-1
Dukes FT:  Offense 70.9%, 192 in D-1; Defense 70.6%, 160 in D-1
UMass FT:  Offense 68.6%, 259 in D-1; Defense 73.0%, 268 in D-1

Points per Possession and Number of Possessions (per KenPom)
UMass Adj Offense Efficiency - 109.6; 81 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Defense Efficiency - 102.7; 139 in D-1
UMass Adj Defense Efficiency - 103.8; 160 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Offense Efficiency - 111.0; 67 in D-1
UMass Adj Tempo - 72.9; 43 in D-1 vs Dukes Adj Tempo - 68.2; 240 in D-1

Miscellaneous (per KenPom)
Experience - UMass 1.34 yrs; 273 in D-1; Dukes 2.75 yrs; 24 in D-1
Average Height - UMass 76.6"; 269 in D-1; Dukes 76.2"; 320 in D-1

 
Posted by BluffHunter
1/02/2024 9:25 pm
#2

This run on the road is going to be a test right off the bat… we better be ready.

 
Posted by Styles1229
1/03/2024 10:29 am
#3

Anybody think we’ll see a different starting 5 tonight?  The Cleary change up may have been a one off but here’s my thoughts.  Dixon has certainly surpassed Chabi (if he ever was actually behind him.). Dusan will be the starter by season’s end but probably not tonight.  Here’s what I think will happen:

1. Kareem
2. Dae Dae
3. Jimmy
4. Savrasov
5. Dixon

Here’s my suggestion for best 5 on the floor:

1. Jimmy
2. Dae Dae
3. F Drame (Necas close behind)
4. Dixon
5. Dusan

Ultimately, who starts is of little consequence if KD gets everybody PT but this exercise is just to show who I think is our strongest group

 
Posted by townsonkid
1/03/2024 10:52 am
#4

Its almost like the first 10 minutes of every game determine the PT for the next 30.   Fouls, hot/cold hands, lazy, etc.   KD seems to have a plan.   IDC who the starting 5 is.   I'm not sure any players do either.   Grant and Clark are the only 2 sure thing starters, and they should both play as much as they can.
Just win, baby!
 

 
Posted by phil95
1/03/2024 11:07 am
#5

I remain confused by the amount of time Savrasov gets & when/why he is subbed in & out. KD's explanation about why he started Drame over him last game seemed odd.

I still think great things could be accomplished with the following lineup getting large blocks of time together.

-F. Drame
-Jimmy
-Dae Dae
-Dixon
-Savrasov

 
Posted by MikeR
1/03/2024 11:07 am
#6

townsonkid wrote:

Its almost like the first 10 minutes of every game determine the PT for the next 30.   Fouls, hot/cold hands, lazy, etc.   KD seems to have a plan.   IDC who the starting 5 is.   I'm not sure any players do either.   Grant and Clark are the only 2 sure thing starters, and they should both play as much as they can.
Just win, baby!
 

I don't know if we have ever gone into the A10 schedule with this much overall depth. Hope it pays off when we get to the dog days of Feb., when we usually start fading away.  

 
Posted by CityDuke
1/03/2024 11:18 am
#7

phil95 wrote:

I remain confused by the amount of time Savrasov gets & when/why he is subbed in & out. KD's explanation about why he started Drame over him last game seemed odd.

I still think great things could be accomplished with the following lineup getting large blocks of time together.

-F. Drame
-Jimmy
-Dae Dae
-Dixon
-Savrasov

I found it odd as well Phil. But early in the year F Drame definitely deserved to start over Savrasov in my opinion. I found it odd but admirable that at the time Dambrot said he needed to stick with Savrasov anyway, and it definitely paid off. Savrasov started playing his best ball, maybe that confidence from the coach helped him settle in. I think this move from Dambrot to start Drame against Cleary could be to reward him for making that sacrifice earlier in the year? The team definitely seems to have benefited from it and that is definitely not an easy sacrifice to make for such an experienced player. I’m very interested to see who starts tonight, although if we have learned anything from these Dambrot teams…who finishes is much more important.

 
Posted by PhoenixRising2
1/03/2024 11:58 am
#8

CityDuke wrote:

phil95 wrote:

I remain confused by the amount of time Savrasov gets & when/why he is subbed in & out. KD's explanation about why he started Drame over him last game seemed odd.

I still think great things could be accomplished with the following lineup getting large blocks of time together.

-F. Drame
-Jimmy
-Dae Dae
-Dixon
-Savrasov

I found it odd as well Phil. But early in the year F Drame definitely deserved to start over Savrasov in my opinion. I found it odd but admirable that at the time Dambrot said he needed to stick with Savrasov anyway, and it definitely paid off. Savrasov started playing his best ball, maybe that confidence from the coach helped him settle in. I think this move from Dambrot to start Drame against Cleary could be to reward him for making that sacrifice earlier in the year? The team definitely seems to have benefited from it and that is definitely not an easy sacrifice to make for such an experienced player. I’m very interested to see who starts tonight, although if we have learned anything from these Dambrot teams…who finishes is much more important.

In the post game Cleary press conference, I believe that Dambrot said that he started F. Drame to see if he could get him restarted.  Fouseyni had a few subpar games coming into Cleary and thought that the start might get him going again. 

 
Posted by Ironduke81
1/03/2024 12:57 pm
#9

Very interesting tonight’s game are not the starting lineup or the players BUT the coaches. Dambrot vs Martin. Although I am always concerned in facing Bonnie’s Schmidt these two successful coaches are in my opinion identical. Stubborn, expectations of teams playing hard 24/7. The team with the most depth should win. I like Duquesne. Only concern is the foul line shooting  percentage & the referees. Good news A10 referees. Buckle up should be a hard fought game. Go Dukes…

 
Posted by FAM
1/03/2024 1:21 pm
#10

Nothing profound here… but tonight begins either a new journey or will it be the Same Old Duquesne. I’m not being negative, just hoping a different path is hopefully on the horizon. This month will let us know. 
Go Dukes!
With that said, one game doesn’t make their season. So if tonight isn’t a win, we need to see how the next few weeks go. 
Go Dukes!

 
Posted by phil95
1/03/2024 1:44 pm
#11

KD did say almost exactly that. He also said the Drame was better than Savrasov at the beginning of the season & probably "deserved" to start earlier. Coach also said they have had problems with guys vying for playing time.

The casual discussion of those 2 tidbits are what I find to be odd in the context of a press conference.

Part of my confusion is definitely my own long-term inability to understand the public personality of KD. To my eyes, he seems to purposefully alienate a player or a few players every season while unnecessarily pumping up others. I just don't get KD the way some others do.

PhoenixRising2 wrote:

CityDuke wrote:

phil95 wrote:

I remain confused by the amount of time Savrasov gets & when/why he is subbed in & out. KD's explanation about why he started Drame over him last game seemed odd.

I still think great things could be accomplished with the following lineup getting large blocks of time together.

-F. Drame
-Jimmy
-Dae Dae
-Dixon
-Savrasov

I found it odd as well Phil. But early in the year F Drame definitely deserved to start over Savrasov in my opinion. I found it odd but admirable that at the time Dambrot said he needed to stick with Savrasov anyway, and it definitely paid off. Savrasov started playing his best ball, maybe that confidence from the coach helped him settle in. I think this move from Dambrot to start Drame against Cleary could be to reward him for making that sacrifice earlier in the year? The team definitely seems to have benefited from it and that is definitely not an easy sacrifice to make for such an experienced player. I’m very interested to see who starts tonight, although if we have learned anything from these Dambrot teams…who finishes is much more important.

In the post game Cleary press conference, I believe that Dambrot said that he started F. Drame to see if he could get him restarted.  Fouseyni had a few subpar games coming into Cleary and thought that the start might get him going again. 

 
Posted by CLK
1/03/2024 4:28 pm
#13

Kareem is our best percentage three point shooter. We need him to come out and hit some shots like he did in the Charleston game. The team that wants this game the most will win. GO DUKES 🏀

https://triblive.com/sports/duquesne-hopes-to-build-on-positives-from-pre-conference-schedule-as-atlantic-10-play-begins/

 
Posted by gjgsr
1/03/2024 5:44 pm
#14

Looking at the roster stats sheets for each of the teams - it appears on paper UMass has the edge:

UMASS advantages
3 point shooting
size
rebounding edge
foul shooting proficiency
number of players participating
home factor
foul calls will favor Umass

DUQ advantages
defense - which could negate some of UMASS offensive advantages.
turnover ratio
in the paint scoring
age/experience factor

I see UMASS winning by 2..

HOPE I'M WRONG!!

Last edited by gjgsr (1/03/2024 5:51 pm)

 
Posted by BluffHunter
1/03/2024 6:12 pm
#15

Scoring leaders of non-conference play. 4 of the top 8 are in the matchup tonight!

https://twitter.com/A10Talk/status/1742653140846117072

 
Posted by PhoenixRising2
1/03/2024 6:53 pm
#16

Posted starting lineup:
Rozier, Clark, Grant, Dixon and Fousseyni Drame

 
Posted by BluffHunter
1/03/2024 7:11 pm
#17

Too much standing around off the ball on offense. Don't like this amount of iso play but have to keep the intensity up and handle the adversity that will be faced playing away

 
Posted by CityDuke
1/03/2024 7:37 pm
#18

This umass high pressure defense makes it hard to get into sets. Beat the first man and make good decisions from there. Refs letting them play physical and not us. 14 free throws to our 2 with 8 left in the half…

 
Posted by CityDuke
1/03/2024 7:42 pm
#19

They must have seen the box score during the tv timeout haha! Two straight trips to the line for the Dukes.

 
Posted by Duques102
1/03/2024 7:44 pm
#20

This broadcast team is first team all A10. Color guy is knowledgeable and informative. What a breath of fresh air compared to the usual.

 
Posted by Mike Ignelsi
1/03/2024 7:54 pm
#21

Pathetic

 
Posted by Ironduke81
1/03/2024 7:58 pm
#22

Frank Martin maniac. How many MF’s in regard to his players. Love his passion. Cmon Keith kick your game up.

 
Posted by townsonkid
1/03/2024 7:59 pm
#23

I’m sure they will hit a couple 3s in the 2nd half to make it interesting.    Maybe try to not foul.   Very undisciplined ball, kind of disappointing to see with such an old team.

 
Posted by NapaDuke
1/03/2024 8:01 pm
#24

Mike Ignelsi wrote:

Pathetic

zero coaching. All subs are because of fouls only. No game plan.It's going to be a long season.
 

 
Posted by BluffHunter
1/03/2024 8:05 pm
#25

Bad passing, bad defense, bad shot selection. Lots of room to improve and only down 8. This will be a stressful half.

 


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